NL Central
Standings
| # | Team | W | L | PCT | GB | RD | L10 | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milwaukee Brewers | 103 | 59 | .636 | - | +214 | 8-2 | W5 |
| 2 | Chicago Cubs | 89 | 73 | .549 | 14.0 | +147 | 5-5 | W1 |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 82 | 80 | .506 | 21.0 | +28 | 7-3 | W1 |
| 4 | St. Louis Cardinals | 77 | 85 | .475 | 26.0 | -29 | 2-8 | L4 |
| 5 | Cincinnati Reds | 75 | 87 | .463 | 28.0 | -160 | 4-6 | L1 |
| # | Team | W* | L* | ±W | Δ Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milwaukee Brewers | 103 | 59 | 0 | — |
| 2 | Chicago Cubs | 89 | 73 | 0 | — |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 82 | 80 | 0 | — |
| 4 | St. Louis Cardinals | 77 | 85 | 0 | — |
| 5 | Cincinnati Reds | 75 | 87 | 0 | — |
Optimal projects each team's remaining games as if every lineup was optimizer-recommended (snapshot, not full season replay). See methodology below.
Manager decisions across the division
All managers →| Team | Manager | Lineup | Bunts | IBBs | Relievers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | Oliver Marmol 149 GP | 3.82 R · 0.03 R/G | 2.60 R · 0.02 R/G | 3.13 R · 0.02 R/G | 18.99 R · 0.13 R/G |
| Pirates | Don Kelly 154 GP | 4.55 R · 0.03 R/G | 1.10 R · 0.01 R/G | 3.59 R · 0.02 R/G | 22.28 R · 0.14 R/G |
| Brewers | Pat Murphy 153 GP | 2.82 R · 0.02 R/G | 5.32 R · 0.03 R/G | 5.29 R · 0.03 R/G | 22.84 R · 0.15 R/G |
| Reds | Terry Francona 152 GP | 3.29 R · 0.02 R/G | 2.16 R · 0.01 R/G | 4.41 R · 0.03 R/G | 40.48 R · 0.27 R/G |
| Cubs | Craig Counsell 153 GP | 4.05 R · 0.03 R/G | 1.99 R · 0.01 R/G | 2.01 R · 0.01 R/G | 48.62 R · 0.32 R/G |
All costs are tenure-bounded, season to date, and shown as a season total plus a per-game rate (R/G). Lower is better. The categories aren't summed into a total — lineup, bunts and IBBs cover every game while reliever selection covers high-leverage spots only (7th inning+, 1–3 run game), so a single composite would mix scopes. The Relievers leaderboard shows a rolling 30-day window. Fired-manager teams get a sub-row showing the predecessor's own tenure separately.
Run differential
Recent form
RunsLeft insights · NL Central
Counsell now at 8.1R lost to lineup decisions
Craig Counsell (CHC) has cost 8.1 runs across lineup, bunt, and IBB decisions this season — past the 5R watermark. Lineup decisions account for 4.1R, the largest single category.
Manager detail →Cooper Pratt's OPS swings .780 between lineup spots
Cooper Pratt (MIL) has hit in 4 different lineup spots over 63 games this season. OPS by spot: 6th .000 (1 g), 7th .780 (11 g), 8th .631 (36 g), 9th .692 (15 g).
See on team page →Matt Shaw's OPS swings .750 between lineup spots
Matt Shaw (CHC) has hit in 9 different lineup spots over 173 games this season. OPS by spot: 1st .000 (2 g), 2nd .067 (3 g), 3rd .000 (1 g), 4th .267 (5 g), 5th .500 (4 g), 6th .500 (10 g), 7th .750 (16 g), 8th .492 (50 g), 9th .690 (82 g).
See on team page →Rafael Flores Jr's OPS swings 2.417 between lineup spots
Rafael Flores Jr (PIT) has hit in 7 different lineup spots over 42 games this season. OPS by spot: 2nd .000 (1 g), 4th .290 (6 g), 5th .467 (5 g), 6th .714 (7 g), 7th 1.120 (9 g), 8th .602 (10 g), 9th 2.417 (4 g).
See on team page →Konnor Griffin's OPS swings .688 between lineup spots
Konnor Griffin (PIT) has hit in 7 different lineup spots over 79 games this season. OPS by spot: 1st .628 (26 g), 2nd .650 (5 g), 4th .000 (1 g), 5th .625 (4 g), 6th .688 (12 g), 7th .529 (12 g), 8th .626 (19 g).
See on team page →Jj Wetherholt's OPS swings .351 between lineup spots
Jj Wetherholt (STL) has hit in 2 different lineup spots over 126 games this season. OPS by spot: 1st .649 (124 g), 8th 1.000 (2 g).
See on team page →Keep reading
Methodology
Counterfactual standings project each team's remaining
games as if every lineup card had been the optimizer's recommendation.
The math is a snapshot: winsFlip = round(seasonLineupCost / 10),
added to the current win column and subtracted from the loss column.
Manager decision costs come from the same per-game decision audit used on /managers. Insights are emitted by templates under /methodology and refreshed hourly or nightly depending on the template tier.