NL Central
Standings
| # | Team | W | L | PCT | GB | RD | L10 | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milwaukee Brewers | 74 | 44 | .627 | - | +141 | 7-3 | W2 |
| 2 | Chicago Cubs | 69 | 50 | .580 | 5.5 | +107 | 7-3 | W1 |
| 3 | St. Louis Cardinals | 59 | 59 | .500 | 15.0 | -8 | 5-5 | W1 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 58 | 62 | .483 | 17.0 | +21 | 3-7 | L1 |
| 5 | Cincinnati Reds | 56 | 61 | .479 | 17.5 | -74 | 6-4 | L3 |
| # | Team | W* | L* | ±W | Δ Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milwaukee Brewers | 74 | 44 | 0 | — |
| 2 | Chicago Cubs | 69 | 50 | 0 | — |
| 3 | St. Louis Cardinals | 59 | 59 | 0 | — |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 58 | 62 | 0 | — |
| 5 | Cincinnati Reds | 56 | 61 | 0 | — |
Optimal projects each team's remaining games as if every lineup was optimizer-recommended (snapshot, not full season replay). See methodology below.
Manager decisions across the division
All managers →| Team | Manager | Lineup | Bunts | IBBs | Relievers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | Oliver Marmol 111 GP | 2.97 R · 0.03 R/G | 2.45 R · 0.02 R/G | 1.97 R · 0.02 R/G | 12.37 R · 0.11 R/G |
| Brewers | Pat Murphy 113 GP | 2.24 R · 0.02 R/G | 3.97 R · 0.04 R/G | 4.78 R · 0.04 R/G | 13.53 R · 0.12 R/G |
| Pirates | Don Kelly 115 GP | 3.98 R · 0.03 R/G | 0.56 R · 0.00 R/G | 2.81 R · 0.02 R/G | 19.19 R · 0.17 R/G |
| Cubs | Craig Counsell 114 GP | 3.32 R · 0.03 R/G | 0.65 R · 0.01 R/G | 1.18 R · 0.01 R/G | 31.71 R · 0.28 R/G |
| Reds | Terry Francona 113 GP | 2.31 R · 0.02 R/G | 1.97 R · 0.02 R/G | 3.42 R · 0.03 R/G | 32.61 R · 0.29 R/G |
All costs are tenure-bounded, season to date, and shown as a season total plus a per-game rate (R/G). Lower is better. The categories aren't summed into a total — lineup, bunts and IBBs cover every game while reliever selection covers high-leverage spots only (7th inning+, 1–3 run game), so a single composite would mix scopes. The Relievers leaderboard shows a rolling 30-day window. Fired-manager teams get a sub-row showing the predecessor's own tenure separately.
Run differential
Recent form
RunsLeft insights · NL Central
Milwaukee Brewers on pace for +194 run differential
Through 118 games the Milwaukee Brewers have outscored opponents by 141 (585-444) — projects to +194 over a full season. Tops the NL Cent.
Team page →Counsell now at 5.1R lost to lineup decisions
Craig Counsell (CHC) has cost 5.1 runs across lineup, bunt, and IBB decisions this season — past the 5R watermark. Lineup decisions account for 3.3R, the largest single category.
Manager detail →MIL bullpen last 7 games: Aaron Ashby led usage; Abner Uribe had better ERA
Milwaukee Brewers bullpen usage, last 7 games — Aaron Ashby 4 apps/92p (ERA 3.56), Abner Uribe 4 apps/81p (ERA 2.05), Chad Patrick 4 apps/64p (ERA 3.32). Most-used arm: Aaron Ashby (4 apps, ERA 3.56). Lowest ERA among less-used arms: Abner…
Team page →PIT bullpen last 7 games: Kirby Yates led usage; Luke Weaver had better ERA
Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen usage, last 7 games — Kirby Yates 4 apps/63p (ERA 3.73), Gregory Soto 3 apps/82p (ERA 3.81), Evan Sisk 3 apps/81p (ERA 2.48). Most-used arm: Kirby Yates (4 apps, ERA 3.73). Lowest ERA among less-used arms: Luke W…
Team page →Counsell has used 27 different lineups in 30 games
Craig Counsell (CHC) has run 27 distinct starting lineups across 30 games this season — that's 90% turnover game-to-game. Most managers stay below 14 for the same span.
Manager detail →Cooper Pratt's OPS swings .256 between lineup spots
Cooper Pratt (MIL) has hit in 3 different lineup spots over 36 games this season. OPS by spot: 7th .867 (3 g), 8th .662 (30 g), 9th .611 (3 g).
See on team page →Keep reading
Methodology
Counterfactual standings project each team's remaining
games as if every lineup card had been the optimizer's recommendation.
The math is a snapshot: winsFlip = round(seasonLineupCost / 10),
added to the current win column and subtracted from the loss column.
Manager decision costs come from the same per-game decision audit used on /managers. Insights are emitted by templates under /methodology and refreshed hourly or nightly depending on the template tier.