NL Central
Standings
| # | Team | W | L | PCT | GB | RD | L10 | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Cubs | 27 | 14 | .659 | - | +47 | 8-2 | L2 |
| 2 | Milwaukee Brewers | 22 | 16 | .579 | 3.5 | +54 | 7-3 | W4 |
| 3 | St. Louis Cardinals | 23 | 17 | .575 | 3.5 | +3 | 6-4 | L2 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 22 | 18 | .550 | 4.5 | +32 | 6-4 | W1 |
| 5 | Cincinnati Reds | 22 | 19 | .537 | 5.0 | -33 | 2-8 | W2 |
| # | Team | W* | L* | ±W | Δ Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Cubs | 27 | 14 | 0 | — |
| 2 | St. Louis Cardinals | 23 | 17 | 0 | ▲ 1 |
| 3 | Milwaukee Brewers | 22 | 16 | 0 | ▼ 1 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 22 | 18 | 0 | — |
| 5 | Cincinnati Reds | 22 | 19 | 0 | — |
Optimal projects each team's remaining games as if every lineup was optimizer-recommended (snapshot, not full season replay). See methodology below.
Manager grades across the division
All managers →| Team | Manager | Lineup | Bunts | IBBs | Pitching | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | — | 0.55 R A+ | 1.62 R C | 3.32 R D | 47.25 R F | 52.74 R B- |
| Cubs | — | 1.92 R C+ | 0.39 R A | 0.30 R A | 56.98 R F | 59.59 R C |
| Cardinals | — | 1.19 R B+ | 0.73 R B | 0.66 R B | 82.03 R F | 84.61 R C+ |
| Pirates | — | 2.29 R C | 0.28 R A | 1.58 R C | 81.89 R F | 86.04 R C- |
| Reds | — | 1.02 R A- | 0.97 R B | 0.77 R B | 129.11 R F | 131.87 R B- |
Cost = expected runs lost from sub-optimal decisions across the season. Lower is better. Grades follow the same scale used on individual manager pages.
Run differential
Recent form
RunsLeft insights · NL Central
Milwaukee Brewers on pace for +230 run differential
Through 38 games the Milwaukee Brewers have outscored opponents by 54 (195-141) — projects to +230 over a full season. Tops the NL Cent.
Team page →Cincinnati Reds are the only NL Cent team underwater on run differential
Cincinnati Reds sit at -33 run differential — the only NL Cent club below water. Division mates average +34.0.
Team page →Murphy now at 5.5R lost to lineup decisions
Pat Murphy (MIL) has cost 5.5 runs across lineup, bunt, and IBB decisions this season — past the 5R watermark. Lineup decisions account for 0.6R, the largest single category.
Manager detail →Kelly has used 30 different lineups in 30 games
Don Kelly (PIT) has run 30 distinct starting lineups across 30 games this season — that's 100% turnover game-to-game. Most managers stay below 14 for the same span.
Manager detail →Marmol has used 22 different lineups in 29 games
Oliver Marmol (STL) has run 22 distinct starting lineups across 29 games this season — that's 76% turnover game-to-game. Most managers stay below 13 for the same span.
Manager detail →Counsell has used 27 different lineups in 30 games
Craig Counsell (CHC) has run 27 distinct starting lineups across 30 games this season — that's 90% turnover game-to-game. Most managers stay below 14 for the same span.
Manager detail →Keep reading
Methodology
Counterfactual standings project each team's remaining
games as if every lineup card had been the optimizer's recommendation.
The math is a snapshot: winsFlip = round(seasonLineupCost / 10),
added to the current win column and subtracted from the loss column.
Manager grades come from the same per-game decision audit used on /managers. Insights are emitted by templates under /methodology and refreshed hourly or nightly depending on the template tier.