NL Central
Standings
| # | Team | W | L | PCT | GB | RD | L10 | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milwaukee Brewers | 49 | 29 | .628 | - | +123 | 7-3 | W4 |
| 2 | St. Louis Cardinals | 42 | 36 | .538 | 7.0 | -1 | 4-6 | L2 |
| 3 | Chicago Cubs | 43 | 37 | .538 | 7.0 | +36 | 7-3 | W3 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 40 | 40 | .500 | 10.0 | +23 | 5-5 | W1 |
| 5 | Cincinnati Reds | 37 | 42 | .468 | 12.5 | -50 | 4-6 | L3 |
| # | Team | W* | L* | ±W | Δ Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milwaukee Brewers | 49 | 29 | 0 | — |
| 2 | St. Louis Cardinals | 42 | 36 | 0 | — |
| 3 | Chicago Cubs | 43 | 37 | 0 | — |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 40 | 40 | 0 | — |
| 5 | Cincinnati Reds | 37 | 42 | 0 | — |
Optimal projects each team's remaining games as if every lineup was optimizer-recommended (snapshot, not full season replay). See methodology below.
Manager decisions across the division
All managers →| Team | Manager | Lineup | Bunts | IBBs | Relievers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | Oliver Marmol 77 GP | 2.08 R · 0.03 R/G | 2.30 R · 0.03 R/G | 1.16 R · 0.02 R/G | 7.42 R · 0.10 R/G |
| Brewers | Pat Murphy 78 GP | 1.55 R · 0.02 R/G | 2.76 R · 0.04 R/G | 4.11 R · 0.05 R/G | 11.54 R · 0.15 R/G |
| Pirates | Don Kelly 78 GP | 3.05 R · 0.04 R/G | 0.56 R · 0.01 R/G | 1.83 R · 0.02 R/G | 14.57 R · 0.19 R/G |
| Cubs | Craig Counsell 78 GP | 2.59 R · 0.03 R/G | 0.65 R · 0.01 R/G | 0.64 R · 0.01 R/G | 20.81 R · 0.27 R/G |
| Reds | Terry Francona 78 GP | 1.69 R · 0.02 R/G | 1.47 R · 0.02 R/G | 3.08 R · 0.04 R/G | 18.73 R · 0.24 R/G |
All costs are tenure-bounded, season to date, and shown as a season total plus a per-game rate (R/G). Lower is better. The categories aren't summed into a total — lineup, bunts and IBBs cover every game while reliever selection covers high-leverage spots only (7th inning+, 1–3 run game), so a single composite would mix scopes. The Relievers leaderboard shows a rolling 30-day window. Fired-manager teams get a sub-row showing the predecessor's own tenure separately.
Run differential
Recent form
RunsLeft insights · NL Central
Milwaukee Brewers on pace for +255 run differential
Through 78 games the Milwaukee Brewers have outscored opponents by 123 (407-284) — projects to +255 over a full season. Tops the NL Cent.
Team page →Counsell has used 27 different lineups in 29 games
Craig Counsell (CHC) has run 27 distinct starting lineups across 29 games this season — that's 93% turnover game-to-game. Most managers stay below 13 for the same span.
Manager detail →Caleb Durbin's OPS swings .543 between lineup spots
Caleb Durbin (MIL) has hit in 7 different lineup spots over 128 games this season. OPS by spot: 1st .200 (1 g), 2nd .580 (10 g), 5th .567 (6 g), 6th .472 (40 g), 7th .743 (42 g), 8th .618 (55 g), 9th .468 (36 g).
See on team page →Jj Wetherholt's OPS swings .712 between lineup spots
Jj Wetherholt (STL) has hit in 2 different lineup spots over 72 games this season. OPS by spot: 1st .712 (71 g), 8th .000 (1 g).
See on team page →Matt Shaw's OPS swings .875 between lineup spots
Matt Shaw (CHC) has hit in 8 different lineup spots over 153 games this season. OPS by spot: 1st .000 (1 g), 2nd .067 (3 g), 4th .000 (2 g), 5th .500 (4 g), 6th .584 (7 g), 7th .875 (13 g), 8th .469 (45 g), 9th .684 (78 g).
See on team page →Konnor Griffin's OPS swings .257 between lineup spots
Konnor Griffin (PIT) has hit in 6 different lineup spots over 50 games this season. OPS by spot: 1st .650 (1 g), 2nd .563 (4 g), 5th .500 (3 g), 6th .757 (11 g), 7th .529 (12 g), 8th .626 (19 g).
See on team page →Keep reading
Methodology
Counterfactual standings project each team's remaining
games as if every lineup card had been the optimizer's recommendation.
The math is a snapshot: winsFlip = round(seasonLineupCost / 10),
added to the current win column and subtracted from the loss column.
Manager decision costs come from the same per-game decision audit used on /managers. Insights are emitted by templates under /methodology and refreshed hourly or nightly depending on the template tier.