NL Central
Standings
| # | Team | W | L | PCT | GB | RD | L10 | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milwaukee Brewers | 99 | 59 | .627 | - | +203 | 7-3 | W1 |
| 2 | Chicago Cubs | 88 | 71 | .553 | 11.5 | +146 | 5-5 | W1 |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 81 | 78 | .509 | 18.5 | +28 | 7-3 | W1 |
| 4 | St. Louis Cardinals | 77 | 82 | .484 | 22.5 | -22 | 4-6 | L1 |
| 5 | Cincinnati Reds | 73 | 85 | .462 | 26.0 | -160 | 4-6 | L1 |
| # | Team | W* | L* | ±W | Δ Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milwaukee Brewers | 99 | 59 | 0 | — |
| 2 | Chicago Cubs | 88 | 71 | 0 | — |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 81 | 78 | 0 | — |
| 4 | St. Louis Cardinals | 77 | 82 | 0 | — |
| 5 | Cincinnati Reds | 73 | 85 | 0 | — |
Optimal projects each team's remaining games as if every lineup was optimizer-recommended (snapshot, not full season replay). See methodology below.
Manager decisions across the division
All managers →| Team | Manager | Lineup | Bunts | IBBs | Relievers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | Oliver Marmol 146 GP | 3.71 R · 0.03 R/G | 2.60 R · 0.02 R/G | 3.13 R · 0.02 R/G | 19.77 R · 0.14 R/G |
| Pirates | Don Kelly 151 GP | 4.51 R · 0.03 R/G | 0.90 R · 0.01 R/G | 3.59 R · 0.02 R/G | 22.03 R · 0.15 R/G |
| Brewers | Pat Murphy 149 GP | 2.74 R · 0.02 R/G | 4.74 R · 0.03 R/G | 5.29 R · 0.04 R/G | 22.88 R · 0.15 R/G |
| Reds | Terry Francona 148 GP | 3.18 R · 0.02 R/G | 2.16 R · 0.01 R/G | 4.41 R · 0.03 R/G | 41.44 R · 0.28 R/G |
| Cubs | Craig Counsell 150 GP | 3.93 R · 0.03 R/G | 1.99 R · 0.01 R/G | 2.01 R · 0.01 R/G | 49.80 R · 0.33 R/G |
All costs are tenure-bounded, season to date, and shown as a season total plus a per-game rate (R/G). Lower is better. The categories aren't summed into a total — lineup, bunts and IBBs cover every game while reliever selection covers high-leverage spots only (7th inning+, 1–3 run game), so a single composite would mix scopes. The Relievers leaderboard shows a rolling 30-day window. Fired-manager teams get a sub-row showing the predecessor's own tenure separately.
Run differential
Recent form
RunsLeft insights · NL Central
Milwaukee Brewers on pace for +208 run differential
Through 158 games the Milwaukee Brewers have outscored opponents by 203 (810-607) — projects to +208 over a full season. Tops the NL Cent.
Team page →Counsell now at 7.9R lost to lineup decisions
Craig Counsell (CHC) has cost 7.9 runs across lineup, bunt, and IBB decisions this season — past the 5R watermark. Lineup decisions account for 3.9R, the largest single category.
Manager detail →Counsell has used 28 different lineups in 30 games
Craig Counsell (CHC) has run 28 distinct starting lineups across 30 games this season — that's 93% turnover game-to-game. Most managers stay below 14 for the same span.
Manager detail →Marmol has used 30 different lineups in 30 games
Oliver Marmol (STL) has run 30 distinct starting lineups across 30 games this season — that's 100% turnover game-to-game. Most managers stay below 14 for the same span.
Manager detail →Kelly has used 29 different lineups in 30 games
Don Kelly (PIT) has run 29 distinct starting lineups across 30 games this season — that's 97% turnover game-to-game. Most managers stay below 14 for the same span.
Manager detail →Matt Shaw's OPS swings .750 between lineup spots
Matt Shaw (CHC) has hit in 9 different lineup spots over 170 games this season. OPS by spot: 1st .000 (2 g), 2nd .067 (3 g), 3rd .000 (1 g), 4th .267 (5 g), 5th .500 (4 g), 6th .500 (8 g), 7th .750 (16 g), 8th .492 (50 g), 9th .690 (81 g).
See on team page →Keep reading
Methodology
Counterfactual standings project each team's remaining
games as if every lineup card had been the optimizer's recommendation.
The math is a snapshot: winsFlip = round(seasonLineupCost / 10),
added to the current win column and subtracted from the loss column.
Manager decision costs come from the same per-game decision audit used on /managers. Insights are emitted by templates under /methodology and refreshed hourly or nightly depending on the template tier.