TONIGHT'S EDGES

MLB DFS Edges — 2026-09-17

Every prop ranked by model edge vs. market consensus. Starter pull-pattern and hitter rest-pattern context layered in where the manager's game sample supports it.

Updated 1m ago · Model v0.1 · 461 edges

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	Player	Market	Hit %	Edge	Conf	Books
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	Justin Wrobleski LAD · SP · vs CIN Model Pick	Strikeouts 3.5	71%	+13.6pp	high	Underdog 3.5
Manager context Roberts averages 88 pitches before pulling Wrobleski (23 starts, 7 over 100); CIN 24.4% K-rate vs LHP Recent form Wrobleski 9.0 K/9 in last 14 starts (7.5 season — missing more bats)
	Kyle Harrison MIL · SP · vs PIT Model Pick	Strikeouts 4.5	71%	+13.6pp	high	Underdog 4.5
Manager context Murphy averages 82 pitches before pulling Harrison (26 starts, 2 over 100); PIT 24.8% K-rate vs LHP
	Samad Taylor Lineup pending SD · LF · vs COL Model Pick	Hits 0.5	66%	-1.5pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Max Muncy LAD · 3B · vs CIN Model Pick	Hits 0.5	66%	+4.9pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Teoscar Hernández LAD · LF · vs CIN Model Pick	Hits 0.5	66%	-2.1pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Recent form Hernández .367 over last 14 games (.263 season — hot)
	Miguel Rojas LAD · 2B · vs CIN Limited data	Hits 0.5	66%	+7.7pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Recent form Rojas .192 over last 14 games (.267 season — slumping) Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Mookie Betts LAD · SS · vs CIN Not starting	Hits 0.5	66%	-2.7pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Liam Hicks TB · C · vs ATH Model Pick	Hits 0.5	66%	+1.7pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Nick Gonzales Lineup pending PIT · 3B · vs MIL Model Pick	Hits 0.5	66%	+0.2pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Elly De La Cruz CIN · SS · vs LAD Model Pick	Hits 0.5	66%	+2.7pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Recent form Cruz .426 over last 14 games (.286 season — hot)
	Jake Cronenworth Lineup pending SD · 2B · vs COL Model Pick	Hits 0.5	66%	-0.2pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Riley Greene Lineup pending DET · LF · vs CWS Model Pick	Hits 0.5	66%	+3.6pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Hinch rests LHB vs RHP in 7% of starts (2nd pct); Greene started 100% vs RHP last 30 days
	TJ Rumfield Lineup pending COL · 1B · vs SD Model Pick	Hits 0.5	66%	-1.2pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Schaeffer rests LHB vs RHP in 24% of starts (102nd pct); Rumfield started 96% vs RHP last 30 days
	Jonathan Aranda TB · 1B · vs ATH Model Pick	Hits 0.5	66%	+0.3pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Josue De Paula LAD · RF · vs CIN Limited data	Hits 0.5	66%	+5.6pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Small sample. Limited 2026 MLB sample — projection weighted heavily on prior seasons / minor-league data.
	Luis Campusano Lineup pending SD · C · vs COL Model Pick	Hits 0.5	66%	-2.7pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Nick Madrigal Lineup pending TB · 3B · vs ATH Model Pick	Hits 0.5	66%	+4.1pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Isaac Paredes Lineup pending HOU · 3B · vs KC Model Pick	Hits 0.5	66%	+1.6pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Carson Benge Lineup pending NYM · RF · vs PHI Model Pick	Hits 0.5	66%	+2.1pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Green rests LHB vs RHP in 19% of starts (93rd pct); Benge started 100% vs RHP last 30 days
	Ryan Vilade TB · RF · vs ATH Limited data	Hits 0.5	66%	+6.1pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Jake Mangum Lineup pending PIT · CF · vs MIL Model Pick	Hits 0.5	66%	+3.3pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Oneil Cruz Lineup pending PIT · CF · vs MIL Model Pick	Hits 0.5	66%	+3.6pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Josh Jung Lineup pending TEX · 3B · vs BOS Model Pick	Hits 0.5	66%	-0.7pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Max Clark Lineup pending DET · CF · vs CWS Model Pick	Hits 0.5	66%	+4.2pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Sal Stewart CIN · 1B · vs LAD Model Pick	Hits 0.5	66%	+0.6pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Adael Amador Lineup pending COL · 2B · vs SD Model Pick	Hits 0.5	66%	+1.6pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Ryan O'Hearn Lineup pending PIT · RF · vs MIL Model Pick	Hits 0.5	66%	+4.9pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Jac Caglianone Lineup pending KC · RF · vs HOU Model Pick	Hits 0.5	66%	+1.9pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Jared Young Lineup pending NYM · 1B · vs PHI Model Pick	Hits 0.5	66%	+6.6pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Green rests LHB vs RHP in 19% of starts (93rd pct); Young started 19% vs RHP last 30 days
	Michael Massey Lineup pending KC · 2B · vs HOU Model Pick	Hits 0.5	65%	+8.6pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Randal Grichuk Lineup pending CWS · DH · vs DET Limited data	Hits 0.5	65%	+2.0pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Jose Altuve Lineup pending HOU · 2B · vs KC Model Pick	Hits 0.5	65%	-2.6pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Kyle Tucker LAD · RF · vs CIN Model Pick	Hits 0.5	65%	+1.0pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	A.J. Ewing Lineup pending NYM · CF · vs PHI Model Pick	Hits 0.5	65%	+5.1pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Willson Contreras Lineup pending BOS · 1B · vs TEX Model Pick	Hits 0.5	65%	+2.5pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Tristan Peters Lineup pending CWS · CF · vs DET Model Pick	Hits 0.5	65%	+10.4pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Nicky Lopez Lineup pending TEX · 2B · vs BOS Limited data	Hits 0.5	65%	+15.5pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Nick Fortes TB · C · vs ATH Not starting	Hits 0.5	65%	+9.8pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Bobby Witt Jr. Lineup pending KC · SS · vs HOU Model Pick	Hits 0.5	65%	-0.1pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Juan Brito CIN · 2B · vs LAD Model Pick	Hits 0.5	65%	+8.0pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Recent form Brito .357 over last 14 games (.265 season — hot)
	Konnor Griffin Lineup pending PIT · SS · vs MIL Model Pick	Hits 0.5	65%	-1.5pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Kelly rests RHB vs LHP in 40% of starts (102nd pct); Griffin started 100% vs LHP last 30 days
	Chase Meidroth Lineup pending CWS · 2B · vs DET Model Pick	Hits 0.5	65%	-2.6pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Cooper Pratt Lineup pending MIL · SS · vs PIT Model Pick	Hits 0.5	65%	+3.2pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Wade Meckler Lineup pending LAA · LF · vs MIN Model Pick	Hits 0.5	65%	+3.8pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Sam Antonacci Lineup pending CWS · LF · vs DET Model Pick	Hits 0.5	65%	+7.1pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Dillon Dingler Lineup pending DET · C · vs CWS Model Pick	Hits 0.5	65%	+1.3pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Maikel Garcia Lineup pending KC · 3B · vs HOU Model Pick	Hits 0.5	65%	+4.9pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Luis Arraez Lineup pending PHI · 2B · vs NYM Model Pick	Hits 0.5	65%	-3.6pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Tyler Stephenson CIN · C · vs LAD Model Pick	Hits 0.5	64%	+0.0pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Colt Keith Lineup pending DET · 3B · vs CWS Limited data	Hits 0.5	64%	+2.9pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Hinch rests LHB vs RHP in 7% of starts (2nd pct); Keith started 100% vs RHP last 30 days Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Luis Lara Lineup pending MIL · RF · vs PIT Model Pick	Hits 0.5	64%	+1.7pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Kyle Karros Lineup pending COL · 3B · vs SD Model Pick	Hits 0.5	64%	-2.3pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Joey Ortiz Lineup pending MIL · SS · vs PIT Limited data	Hits 0.5	64%	+1.1pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Murphy rests RHB vs RHP in 46% of starts (98th pct); Ortiz started 47% vs RHP last 30 days Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Nate Eaton Lineup pending BOS · LF · vs TEX Limited data	Hits 0.5	64%	+14.7pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters. Small sample. Limited 2026 MLB sample — projection weighted heavily on prior seasons / minor-league data.
	Wilyer Abreu Lineup pending BOS · RF · vs TEX Model Pick	Hits 0.5	64%	-1.2pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Justin Foscue Lineup pending TEX · 2B · vs BOS Limited data	Hits 0.5	64%	+15.2pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Jared Triolo Lineup pending PIT · SS · vs MIL Limited data	Hits 0.5	64%	+13.7pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Hao-Yu Lee Lineup pending DET · 2B · vs CWS Model Pick	Hits 0.5	64%	+0.9pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Daulton Varsho Lineup pending HOU · CF · vs KC Model Pick	Hits 0.5	64%	+2.0pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	John Peck Lineup pending DET · SS · vs CWS Limited data	Hits 0.5	64%	+10.3pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Small sample. Limited 2026 MLB sample — projection weighted heavily on prior seasons / minor-league data.
	Cole Carrigg Lineup pending COL · CF · vs SD Model Pick	Hits 0.5	64%	-1.0pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Ezequiel Duran Lineup pending TEX · SS · vs BOS Model Pick	Hits 0.5	64%	+5.4pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Brandon Nimmo Lineup pending TEX · RF · vs BOS Model Pick	Hits 0.5	64%	+5.8pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Caleb Durbin Lineup pending BOS · 3B · vs TEX Model Pick	Hits 0.5	64%	+1.8pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Joey Loperfido Lineup pending HOU · LF · vs KC Limited data	Hits 0.5	64%	+3.0pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Trevor Story Lineup pending BOS · SS · vs TEX	Hits 0.5	64%	+4.1pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Francisco Alvarez Lineup pending NYM · C · vs PHI	Hits 0.5	64%	+11.6pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Francisco Lindor Lineup pending NYM · SS · vs PHI	Hits 0.5	64%	+2.1pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Spencer Torkelson Lineup pending DET · 1B · vs CWS	Hits 0.5	64%	+9.1pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Brett Baty Lineup pending NYM · 3B · vs PHI	Hits 0.5	64%	+14.4pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Green rests LHB vs RHP in 19% of starts (93rd pct); Baty started 95% vs RHP last 30 days
	Christian Walker Lineup pending HOU · 1B · vs KC	Hits 0.5	64%	+3.5pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Juan Soto Lineup pending NYM · LF · vs PHI	Hits 0.5	64%	-1.5pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Green rests LHB vs RHP in 19% of starts (93rd pct); Soto started 43% vs RHP last 30 days
	Tommy Pham Lineup pending CWS · LF · vs DET Limited data	Hits 0.5	64%	+1.4pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters. Small sample. Limited 2026 MLB sample — projection weighted heavily on prior seasons / minor-league data.
	Héctor Rodríguez CIN · RF · vs LAD	Hits 0.5	64%	+3.5pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Christian Yelich Lineup pending MIL · DH · vs PIT	Hits 0.5	63%	+1.6pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Cam Smith Lineup pending HOU · RF · vs KC	Hits 0.5	63%	+4.3pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Eugenio Suárez CIN · DH · vs LAD Not starting	Hits 0.5	63%	+4.4pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Christian Vázquez Lineup pending HOU · C · vs KC	Hits 0.5	63%	+12.2pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Jorge Mateo TB · SS · vs ATH Not starting	Hits 0.5	63%	+9.6pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Marcus Semien Lineup pending NYM · 2B · vs PHI	Hits 0.5	63%	+5.8pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Carter Jensen Lineup pending KC · C · vs HOU	Hits 0.5	63%	+5.5pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Connor Norby Lineup pending COL · 2B · vs SD	Hits 0.5	63%	+0.1pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Mickey Moniak Lineup pending COL · LF · vs SD	Hits 0.5	63%	-1.8pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Schaeffer rests LHB vs RHP in 24% of starts (102nd pct); Moniak started 96% vs RHP last 30 days
	Luke Keaschall Lineup pending MIN · 2B · vs LAA	Hits 0.5	63%	-4.1pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Adley Rutschman Lineup pending BOS · C · vs TEX	Hits 0.5	63%	-0.5pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Brett Sullivan Lineup pending COL · C · vs SD Limited data	Hits 0.5	63%	+6.1pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Schaeffer rests LHB vs RHP in 24% of starts (102nd pct); Sullivan started 33% vs RHP last 30 days Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Vinnie Pasquantino Lineup pending KC · 1B · vs HOU	Hits 0.5	63%	+3.9pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Sal Frelick Lineup pending MIL · RF · vs PIT	Hits 0.5	63%	+2.2pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Salvador Perez Lineup pending KC · DH · vs HOU	Hits 0.5	63%	+3.8pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Justin Crawford Lineup pending PHI · CF · vs NYM	Hits 0.5	63%	+4.9pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Wyatt Langford Lineup pending TEX · LF · vs BOS	Hits 0.5	63%	+4.9pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Henry Bolte Lineup pending ATH · CF · vs TB	Hits 0.5	63%	+3.3pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Brandon Marsh Lineup pending PHI · LF · vs NYM	Hits 0.5	63%	+3.3pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Zach Neto Lineup pending LAA · SS · vs MIN	Hits 0.5	63%	+1.9pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Alex Freeland LAD · 2B · vs CIN Limited data	Hits 0.5	63%	+6.5pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Recent form Freeland .286 over last 14 games (.235 season — hot) Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Elias Díaz Lineup pending TEX · C · vs BOS Limited data	Hits 0.5	63%	+15.0pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Jake Burger Lineup pending TEX · 1B · vs BOS	Hits 0.5	62%	+6.1pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Brett Callahan Lineup pending DET · LF · vs CWS Limited data	Hits 0.5	62%	+9.8pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Kevin McGonigle Lineup pending DET · SS · vs CWS	Hits 0.5	62%	-0.5pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Hinch rests LHB vs RHP in 7% of starts (2nd pct); McGonigle started 94% vs RHP last 30 days
	Kyle Isbel Lineup pending KC · CF · vs HOU	Hits 0.5	62%	+8.6pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Bryan Reynolds Lineup pending PIT · LF · vs MIL	Hits 0.5	62%	-2.2pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Hunter Feduccia LAD · C · vs CIN Limited data	Hits 0.5	62%	+7.0pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Brenton Doyle Lineup pending CWS · CF · vs DET Limited data	Hits 0.5	62%	+3.4pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	John Peck Lineup pending DET · SS · vs CWS Limited data	Total Bases 0.5	62%	+5.8pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Small sample. Limited 2026 MLB sample — projection weighted heavily on prior seasons / minor-league data.
	Tommy Pham Lineup pending CWS · LF · vs DET Limited data	Total Bases 0.5	62%	+1.3pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters. Small sample. Limited 2026 MLB sample — projection weighted heavily on prior seasons / minor-league data.
	Nate Eaton Lineup pending BOS · LF · vs TEX Limited data	Total Bases 0.5	62%	+6.0pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters. Small sample. Limited 2026 MLB sample — projection weighted heavily on prior seasons / minor-league data.
	Miguel Rojas LAD · 2B · vs CIN Limited data	Total Bases 0.5	62%	+6.8pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Liam Hicks TB · C · vs ATH	Total Bases 0.5	62%	-1.9pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Emmanuel Rodriguez Lineup pending MIN · CF · vs LAA Limited data	Total Bases 0.5	62%	+6.6pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Small sample. Limited 2026 MLB sample — projection weighted heavily on prior seasons / minor-league data.
	Nick Madrigal Lineup pending TB · 3B · vs ATH	Total Bases 0.5	62%	-1.5pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Jake Mangum Lineup pending PIT · CF · vs MIL	Total Bases 0.5	62%	-1.8pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Josue De Paula LAD · RF · vs CIN Limited data	Total Bases 1.5	62%	+21.7pp	high	Underdog 1.5
Quality flags Small sample. Limited 2026 MLB sample — projection weighted heavily on prior seasons / minor-league data.
	Max Clark Lineup pending DET · CF · vs CWS	Total Bases 0.5	62%	+1.3pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Jeff McNeil Lineup pending ATH · 2B · vs TB	Hits 0.5	62%	+0.7pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Corey Seager Lineup pending TEX · SS · vs BOS	Hits 0.5	62%	+0.3pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Alika Williams Lineup pending ATH · SS · vs TB Limited data	Hits 0.5	62%	+10.4pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Emmanuel Rodriguez Lineup pending MIN · CF · vs LAA Limited data	Hits 0.5	62%	+8.4pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Small sample. Limited 2026 MLB sample — projection weighted heavily on prior seasons / minor-league data.
	Adael Amador Lineup pending COL · 2B · vs SD	Total Bases 0.5	62%	+3.2pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Nick Sogard Lineup pending BOS · 2B · vs TEX	Hits 0.5	62%	+2.6pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Denzer Guzman Lineup pending LAA · 3B · vs MIN	Hits 0.5	62%	+6.2pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Ryan O'Hearn Lineup pending PIT · RF · vs MIL	Total Bases 0.5	62%	+0.4pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Donovan Walton Lineup pending ATH · 2B · vs TB Limited data	Hits 0.5	61%	+11.1pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Shea Langeliers Lineup pending ATH · C · vs TB	Hits 0.5	61%	+1.9pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Jared Young Lineup pending NYM · 1B · vs PHI	Total Bases 0.5	61%	+0.3pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Green rests LHB vs RHP in 19% of starts (93rd pct); Young started 19% vs RHP last 30 days
	Carlos Cortes Lineup pending ATH · RF · vs TB	Hits 0.5	61%	+9.6pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Jahmai Jones Lineup pending BOS · DH · vs TEX Limited data	Hits 0.5	61%	+1.1pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Vaughn Grissom Lineup pending LAA · 1B · vs MIN	Hits 0.5	61%	+0.8pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Michael Massey Lineup pending KC · 2B · vs HOU	Total Bases 0.5	61%	+0.7pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Moisés Ballesteros Lineup pending LAA · DH · vs MIN	Hits 0.5	61%	+5.5pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Suzuki rests LHB vs RHP in 7% of starts (5th pct); Ballesteros started 95% vs RHP last 30 days
	Alec Bohm Lineup pending PHI · 3B · vs NYM	Hits 0.5	61%	+0.5pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Ezequiel Tovar Lineup pending COL · SS · vs SD	Hits 0.5	61%	+3.8pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Trea Turner Lineup pending PHI · SS · vs NYM	Hits 0.5	61%	-3.3pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Bryson Stott Lineup pending PHI · 2B · vs NYM	Hits 0.5	61%	+2.3pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Matt McLain CIN · 2B · vs LAD	Hits 0.5	61%	+1.9pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	A.J. Ewing Lineup pending NYM · CF · vs PHI	Total Bases 0.5	61%	-0.6pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Brice Turang Lineup pending MIL · 2B · vs PIT	Hits 0.5	61%	-5.8pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Taj Bradley MIN · SP · vs LAA	Strikeouts 6.5	61%	+6.7pp	high	Underdog 6.5
Manager context Shelton averages 92 pitches before pulling Bradley (32 starts, 10 over 100); LAA 26.6% K-rate vs RHP
	Josh Bell Lineup pending MIN · DH · vs LAA	Hits 0.5	60%	+2.1pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Tristan Peters Lineup pending CWS · CF · vs DET	Total Bases 0.5	60%	+9.4pp	high	Underdog 0.5
	Nicky Lopez Lineup pending TEX · 2B · vs BOS Limited data	Total Bases 0.5	60%	+10.6pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Nick Fortes TB · C · vs ATH Not starting	Total Bases 0.5	60%	+4.7pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Juan Brito CIN · 2B · vs LAD	Total Bases 0.5	60%	+4.4pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Recent form Brito .326 SLG over last 14 (.410 season — flattening)
	Richie Palacios TB · 2B · vs ATH	Hits 0.5	60%	+3.5pp	high	Underdog 0.5
Recent form Palacios .286 over last 14 games (.232 season — hot)
	Cooper Pratt Lineup pending MIL · SS · vs PIT	Total Bases 0.5	60%	+2.1pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Wade Meckler Lineup pending LAA · LF · vs MIN	Total Bases 0.5	59%	-0.3pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Sam Antonacci Lineup pending CWS · LF · vs DET	Total Bases 0.5	59%	+1.5pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Josh Lowe Lineup pending LAA · LF · vs MIN Limited data	Hits 0.5	59%	+8.5pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Suzuki rests LHB vs RHP in 7% of starts (5th pct); Lowe started 100% vs RHP last 30 days Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Brooks Lee Lineup pending MIN · 3B · vs LAA	Hits 0.5	58%	-4.7pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Colt Keith Lineup pending DET · 3B · vs CWS Limited data	Total Bases 0.5	58%	-0.8pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Hinch rests LHB vs RHP in 7% of starts (2nd pct); Keith started 100% vs RHP last 30 days Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Joey Ortiz Lineup pending MIL · SS · vs PIT Limited data	Total Bases 0.5	58%	-3.9pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Murphy rests RHB vs RHP in 46% of starts (98th pct); Ortiz started 47% vs RHP last 30 days Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Zack Gelof Lineup pending ATH · 3B · vs TB	Hits 0.5	58%	+2.4pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Justin Foscue Lineup pending TEX · 2B · vs BOS Limited data	Total Bases 0.5	58%	+8.8pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Jared Triolo Lineup pending PIT · SS · vs MIL Limited data	Total Bases 0.5	58%	+5.5pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Daulton Varsho Lineup pending HOU · CF · vs KC	Total Bases 0.5	58%	-1.9pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Brandon Nimmo Lineup pending TEX · RF · vs BOS	Total Bases 0.5	57%	-1.2pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Caleb Durbin Lineup pending BOS · 3B · vs TEX	Total Bases 0.5	57%	-4.0pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Joey Loperfido Lineup pending HOU · LF · vs KC Limited data	Total Bases 0.5	57%	-0.8pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Trevor Story Lineup pending BOS · SS · vs TEX	Total Bases 0.5	57%	-4.6pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Francisco Alvarez Lineup pending NYM · C · vs PHI	Total Bases 0.5	57%	+4.6pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Miguel Vargas Lineup pending CWS · 3B · vs DET	Hits 0.5	57%	-12.1pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Spencer Torkelson Lineup pending DET · 1B · vs CWS	Total Bases 0.5	57%	+0.6pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Brett Baty Lineup pending NYM · 3B · vs PHI	Total Bases 0.5	56%	+7.0pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Green rests LHB vs RHP in 19% of starts (93rd pct); Baty started 95% vs RHP last 30 days
	JJ Bleday CIN · LF · vs LAD Not starting	Hits 0.5	56%	+1.6pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Roman Anthony Lineup pending BOS · LF · vs TEX	Hits 0.5	56%	-10.4pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Tanner Gordon COL · SP · vs SD	Strikeouts 3.5	56%	+4.8pp	medium	Underdog 3.5
	Jake Bauers Lineup pending MIL · 1B · vs PIT	Hits 0.5	56%	-5.8pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Christian Walker Lineup pending HOU · 1B · vs KC	Total Bases 0.5	56%	-3.2pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Ty France Lineup pending SD · 1B · vs COL	Total Bases 1.5	56%	+1.4pp	medium	Underdog 1.5
	Michael King SD · SP · vs COL	Strikeouts 4.5	56%	+12.1pp	medium	Underdog 4.5
Manager context Stammen averages 91 pitches before pulling King (34 starts, 7 over 100); COL 23.5% K-rate vs RHP
	Taylor Walls TB · SS · vs ATH	Hits 0.5	56%	-0.8pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Héctor Rodríguez CIN · RF · vs LAD	Total Bases 0.5	56%	-3.1pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
Recent form Rodríguez .442 SLG over last 14 (.379 season — slugging)
	Cam Smith Lineup pending HOU · RF · vs KC	Total Bases 0.5	55%	-3.1pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Dustin Harris Lineup pending SD · LF · vs COL Limited data	Hits 1.5	55%	+20.5pp	medium	Underdog 1.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Eugenio Suárez CIN · DH · vs LAD Not starting	Total Bases 0.5	55%	-3.5pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Christian Vázquez Lineup pending HOU · C · vs KC	Total Bases 0.5	55%	+1.8pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Jorge Mateo TB · SS · vs ATH Not starting	Total Bases 0.5	55%	-3.1pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Lawrence Butler Lineup pending ATH · RF · vs TB	Hits 0.5	55%	-0.0pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Marcus Semien Lineup pending NYM · 2B · vs PHI	Total Bases 0.5	55%	-3.3pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Fernando Tatis Jr. Lineup pending SD · RF · vs COL	Hits 1.5	54%	+8.5pp	medium	Underdog 1.5
	Luisangel Acuña Lineup pending CWS · SS · vs DET Limited data	Total Bases 0.5	54%	-1.7pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Evan Carter Lineup pending TEX · CF · vs BOS	Hits 0.5	54%	+5.8pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Royce Lewis Lineup pending MIN · 1B · vs LAA	Hits 0.5	54%	-3.6pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Shelton rests RHB vs RHP in 36% of starts (95th pct); Lewis started 59% vs RHP last 30 days
	Sal Frelick Lineup pending MIL · RF · vs PIT	Total Bases 0.5	54%	-6.7pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Kody Clemens Lineup pending MIN · 2B · vs LAA	Hits 0.5	54%	-7.0pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Samad Taylor Lineup pending SD · LF · vs COL	Total Bases 1.5	54%	+13.3pp	medium	Underdog 1.5
	Ty France Lineup pending SD · 1B · vs COL	Hits 1.5	54%	+13.9pp	medium	Underdog 1.5
	J.T. Realmuto Lineup pending PHI · C · vs NYM	Hits 0.5	54%	-1.2pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Salvador Perez Lineup pending KC · DH · vs HOU	Total Bases 0.5	54%	-6.3pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Justin Crawford Lineup pending PHI · CF · vs NYM	Total Bases 0.5	53%	-5.9pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Wyatt Langford Lineup pending TEX · LF · vs BOS	Total Bases 0.5	53%	-4.0pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Henry Bolte Lineup pending ATH · CF · vs TB	Total Bases 0.5	53%	-8.6pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Brandon Marsh Lineup pending PHI · LF · vs NYM	Total Bases 0.5	53%	-6.6pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Bryce Harper Lineup pending PHI · 1B · vs NYM	Hits 0.5	53%	-9.7pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Alex Freeland LAD · 2B · vs CIN Limited data	Total Bases 0.5	53%	-2.6pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Elias Díaz Lineup pending TEX · C · vs BOS Limited data	Total Bases 0.5	53%	+4.6pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Jake Burger Lineup pending TEX · 1B · vs BOS	Total Bases 0.5	53%	-1.4pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Brett Callahan Lineup pending DET · LF · vs CWS Limited data	Total Bases 0.5	53%	+0.1pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Framber Valdez DET · SP · vs CWS	Strikeouts 4.5	53%	+7.3pp	medium	Underdog 4.5
Manager context Hinch averages 86 pitches before pulling Valdez (33 starts, 4 over 100); CWS 23.3% K-rate vs LHP
	Henry Davis Lineup pending PIT · C · vs MIL Limited data	Hits 0.5	52%	+9.0pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Kelly rests RHB vs LHP in 40% of starts (102nd pct); Davis started 17% vs LHP last 30 days Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Jonah Heim Lineup pending ATH · C · vs TB	Hits 0.5	52%	+4.3pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Kyle Isbel Lineup pending KC · CF · vs HOU	Total Bases 0.5	52%	-3.0pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Isaac Collins Lineup pending KC · LF · vs HOU	Hits 0.5	52%	+0.5pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Hunter Feduccia LAD · C · vs CIN Limited data	Total Bases 0.5	52%	-4.9pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Brenton Doyle Lineup pending CWS · CF · vs DET Limited data	Total Bases 0.5	52%	-7.4pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Dustin Harris Lineup pending SD · LF · vs COL Limited data	Total Bases 1.5	52%	+7.3pp	medium	Underdog 1.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Alika Williams Lineup pending ATH · SS · vs TB Limited data	Total Bases 0.5	51%	-0.4pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Nick Sogard Lineup pending BOS · 2B · vs TEX	Total Bases 0.5	51%	-8.7pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Denzer Guzman Lineup pending LAA · 3B · vs MIN	Total Bases 0.5	51%	-3.8pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Erick Fedde CWS · SP · vs DET	Strikeouts 3.5	51%	+7.3pp	medium	Underdog 3.5
Manager context Venable averages 81 pitches before pulling Fedde (14 starts, 1 over 100); DET 22.6% K-rate vs RHP
	Donovan Walton Lineup pending ATH · 2B · vs TB Limited data	Total Bases 0.5	50%	-4.2pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Shea Langeliers Lineup pending ATH · C · vs TB	Total Bases 0.5	50%	-7.7pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Ryan Kreidler Lineup pending MIN · SS · vs LAA Limited data	Hits 0.5	50%	+2.3pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Shelton rests RHB vs RHP in 36% of starts (95th pct); Kreidler started 0% vs RHP last 30 days Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Carlos Cortes Lineup pending ATH · RF · vs TB	Total Bases 0.5	50%	-3.3pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Vaughn Grissom Lineup pending LAA · 1B · vs MIN	Total Bases 0.5	50%	-12.5pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Max Muncy LAD · 3B · vs CIN	Total Bases 1.5	50%	+6.0pp	medium	Underdog 1.5
	Moisés Ballesteros Lineup pending LAA · DH · vs MIN	Total Bases 0.5	50%	-5.8pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Suzuki rests LHB vs RHP in 7% of starts (5th pct); Ballesteros started 95% vs RHP last 30 days
	Alec Bohm Lineup pending PHI · 3B · vs NYM	Total Bases 0.5	50%	-14.0pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Ezequiel Tovar Lineup pending COL · SS · vs SD	Total Bases 0.5	49%	-9.4pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Bryson Stott Lineup pending PHI · 2B · vs NYM	Total Bases 0.5	49%	-9.8pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Matt McLain CIN · 2B · vs LAD	Total Bases 0.5	49%	-7.3pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Josh Bell Lineup pending MIN · DH · vs LAA	Total Bases 0.5	49%	-12.7pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Richie Palacios TB · 2B · vs ATH	Total Bases 0.5	49%	-9.0pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Mike Trout Lineup pending LAA · CF · vs MIN	Hits 0.5	48%	-12.1pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Jackson Merrill Lineup pending SD · CF · vs COL	Total Bases 1.5	48%	-8.6pp	medium	Underdog 1.5
	Josh Lowe Lineup pending LAA · LF · vs MIN Limited data	Total Bases 0.5	48%	-2.2pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Suzuki rests LHB vs RHP in 7% of starts (5th pct); Lowe started 100% vs RHP last 30 days Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Freddie Freeman LAD · 1B · vs CIN	Total Bases 1.5	47%	-1.6pp	medium	Underdog 1.5
	Zack Gelof Lineup pending ATH · 3B · vs TB	Total Bases 0.5	47%	-7.0pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Walbert Ureña LAA · SP · vs MIN	Strikeouts 4.5	47%	-10.4pp	medium	Underdog 4.5
	Nolan McLean NYM · SP · vs PHI	Strikeouts 5.5	47%	-0.6pp	medium	Underdog 5.5
Manager context Green averages 95 pitches before pulling McLean (28 starts, 8 over 100); PHI 19.1% K-rate vs RHP
	Ke'Bryan Hayes CIN · 3B · vs LAD Limited data	Hits 0.5	47%	-9.7pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Tyler Heineman Lineup pending LAA · C · vs MIN Limited data	Hits 0.5	46%	-0.5pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Junior Caminero TB · 3B · vs ATH	Total Bases 1.5	46%	-0.7pp	medium	Underdog 1.5
	JJ Bleday CIN · LF · vs LAD Not starting	Total Bases 0.5	46%	-8.4pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Mookie Betts LAD · SS · vs CIN Not starting	Total Bases 1.5	46%	-1.8pp	medium	Underdog 1.5
	Jake Bauers Lineup pending MIL · 1B · vs PIT	Total Bases 0.5	46%	-11.3pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Taylor Walls TB · SS · vs ATH	Total Bases 0.5	46%	-6.5pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Elly De La Cruz CIN · SS · vs LAD	Total Bases 1.5	46%	+0.3pp	medium	Underdog 1.5
	Lawrence Butler Lineup pending ATH · RF · vs TB	Total Bases 0.5	45%	-10.1pp	medium	Underdog 0.5
	Evan Carter Lineup pending TEX · CF · vs BOS	Total Bases 0.5	45%	-6.1pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Royce Lewis Lineup pending MIN · 1B · vs LAA	Total Bases 0.5	45%	-11.9pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Shelton rests RHB vs RHP in 36% of starts (95th pct); Lewis started 59% vs RHP last 30 days
	Teoscar Hernández LAD · LF · vs CIN	Total Bases 1.5	45%	+1.7pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Manny Machado Lineup pending SD · 3B · vs COL	Total Bases 1.5	45%	-10.2pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	J.T. Realmuto Lineup pending PHI · C · vs NYM	Total Bases 0.5	45%	-12.0pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Randal Grichuk Lineup pending CWS · DH · vs DET Limited data	Total Bases 1.5	44%	+1.4pp	low	Underdog 1.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Ryan Jeffers Lineup pending MIN · C · vs LAA	Hits 0.5	44%	-15.5pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Shelton rests RHB vs RHP in 36% of starts (95th pct); Jeffers started 47% vs RHP last 30 days
	Henry Davis Lineup pending PIT · C · vs MIL Limited data	Total Bases 0.5	44%	-2.8pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Kelly rests RHB vs LHP in 40% of starts (102nd pct); Davis started 17% vs LHP last 30 days Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Brady Singer CIN · SP · vs LAD	Strikeouts 4.5	44%	+2.4pp	low	Underdog 4.5
	Jonah Heim Lineup pending ATH · C · vs TB	Total Bases 0.5	44%	-4.3pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Kyle Schwarber Lineup pending PHI · DH · vs NYM	Hits 0.5	44%	-15.2pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Isaac Collins Lineup pending KC · LF · vs HOU	Total Bases 0.5	44%	-11.3pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Drew Rasmussen TB · SP · vs ATH	Strikeouts 5.5	43%	-14.0pp	low	Underdog 5.5
Manager context Cash averages 85 pitches before pulling Rasmussen (31 starts, 3 over 100); ATH 22.2% K-rate vs RHP
	Aaron Nola PHI · SP · vs NYM	Strikeouts 5.5	43%	-1.4pp	low	Underdog 5.5
	Yandy Díaz TB · DH · vs ATH	Total Bases 1.5	43%	-6.4pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Riley Greene Lineup pending DET · LF · vs CWS	Total Bases 1.5	43%	+0.4pp	low	Underdog 1.5
Manager context Hinch rests LHB vs RHP in 7% of starts (2nd pct); Greene started 100% vs RHP last 30 days
	Christian Moore Lineup pending LAA · 2B · vs MIN	Hits 0.5	43%	-8.8pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Ryan Kreidler Lineup pending MIN · SS · vs LAA Limited data	Total Bases 0.5	43%	-5.4pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Shelton rests RHB vs RHP in 36% of starts (95th pct); Kreidler started 0% vs RHP last 30 days Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Ryan Vilade TB · RF · vs ATH Limited data	Total Bases 1.5	43%	+3.1pp	low	Underdog 1.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Mike Trout Lineup pending LAA · CF · vs MIN	Total Bases 0.5	42%	-16.3pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Sal Stewart CIN · 1B · vs LAD	Total Bases 1.5	42%	-2.1pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Gary Sánchez Lineup pending MIL · C · vs PIT	Hits 0.5	42%	-11.7pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Murphy rests RHB vs RHP in 46% of starts (98th pct); Sánchez started 53% vs RHP last 30 days
	Tommy Edman LAD · 2B · vs CIN	Total Bases 1.5	42%	-2.8pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Jake McCarthy Lineup pending COL · LF · vs SD	Total Bases 1.5	42%	-7.0pp	low	Underdog 1.5
Manager context Schaeffer rests LHB vs RHP in 24% of starts (102nd pct); McCarthy started 63% vs RHP last 30 days
	Jonathan Aranda TB · 1B · vs ATH	Total Bases 1.5	42%	+0.3pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Luis Campusano Lineup pending SD · C · vs COL	Total Bases 1.5	42%	-3.5pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Oneil Cruz Lineup pending PIT · CF · vs MIL	Total Bases 1.5	42%	+3.3pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Jonny DeLuca TB · RF · vs ATH	Total Bases 1.5	42%	+3.7pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Ke'Bryan Hayes CIN · 3B · vs LAD Limited data	Total Bases 0.5	42%	-10.2pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Tyler Heineman Lineup pending LAA · C · vs MIN Limited data	Total Bases 0.5	42%	-3.2pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Isaac Paredes Lineup pending HOU · 3B · vs KC	Total Bases 1.5	42%	-1.0pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Dillon Dingler Lineup pending DET · C · vs CWS	Total Bases 1.5	42%	+3.2pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Jeremy Peña Lineup pending HOU · SS · vs KC	Total Bases 1.5	42%	-4.5pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	TJ Rumfield Lineup pending COL · 1B · vs SD	Total Bases 1.5	42%	+0.9pp	low	Underdog 1.5
Manager context Schaeffer rests LHB vs RHP in 24% of starts (102nd pct); Rumfield started 96% vs RHP last 30 days
	Jac Caglianone Lineup pending KC · RF · vs HOU	Total Bases 1.5	42%	-1.9pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Sonny Gray BOS · SP · vs TEX	Strikeouts 5.5	42%	-6.4pp	low	Underdog 5.5
Manager context Tracy averages 83 pitches before pulling Gray (30 starts, 0 over 100); TEX 22.4% K-rate vs RHP
	Kyle Tucker LAD · RF · vs CIN	Total Bases 1.5	42%	-1.0pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Ryan Jeffers Lineup pending MIN · C · vs LAA	Total Bases 0.5	42%	-16.3pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Shelton rests RHB vs RHP in 36% of starts (95th pct); Jeffers started 47% vs RHP last 30 days
	Nick Gonzales Lineup pending PIT · 3B · vs MIL	Total Bases 1.5	42%	+3.8pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Kyle Schwarber Lineup pending PHI · DH · vs NYM	Total Bases 0.5	42%	-14.8pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Cole Carrigg Lineup pending COL · CF · vs SD	Total Bases 1.5	42%	-2.5pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Carson Benge Lineup pending NYM · RF · vs PHI	Total Bases 1.5	42%	+1.2pp	low	Underdog 1.5
Manager context Green rests LHB vs RHP in 19% of starts (93rd pct); Benge started 100% vs RHP last 30 days
	Carter Jensen Lineup pending KC · C · vs HOU	Total Bases 1.5	42%	-1.3pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Jose Altuve Lineup pending HOU · 2B · vs KC	Total Bases 1.5	42%	-0.9pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Jake Cronenworth Lineup pending SD · 2B · vs COL	Total Bases 1.5	42%	+1.2pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Yordan Alvarez Lineup pending HOU · DH · vs KC	Total Bases 1.5	42%	-7.4pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Christian Moore Lineup pending LAA · 2B · vs MIN	Total Bases 0.5	42%	-8.7pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Josh Jung Lineup pending TEX · 3B · vs BOS	Total Bases 1.5	42%	+2.4pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Jeffrey Springs ATH · SP · vs TB	Strikeouts 3.5	42%	-1.0pp	low	Underdog 3.5
	Willson Contreras Lineup pending BOS · 1B · vs TEX	Total Bases 1.5	42%	-3.6pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Gary Sánchez Lineup pending MIL · C · vs PIT	Total Bases 0.5	42%	-12.3pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Murphy rests RHB vs RHP in 46% of starts (98th pct); Sánchez started 53% vs RHP last 30 days
	Tyler Stephenson CIN · C · vs LAD	Total Bases 1.5	42%	-1.5pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	TJ Friedl CIN · CF · vs LAD Limited data	Total Bases 0.5	42%	-11.8pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Bobby Witt Jr. Lineup pending KC · SS · vs HOU	Total Bases 1.5	42%	-1.5pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Chandler Simpson TB · LF · vs ATH	Total Bases 1.5	42%	+1.2pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Fernando Tatis Jr. Lineup pending SD · RF · vs COL	Total Bases 2.5	42%	-3.9pp	low	Underdog 2.5
	Wilyer Abreu Lineup pending BOS · RF · vs TEX	Total Bases 1.5	42%	-1.6pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	TJ Friedl CIN · CF · vs LAD Limited data	Hits 0.5	42%	-9.3pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Recent form Friedl .286 over last 14 games (.165 season — hot) Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Bo Bichette Lineup pending NYM · 3B · vs PHI	Total Bases 1.5	42%	-0.7pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Kyle Karros Lineup pending COL · 3B · vs SD	Total Bases 1.5	42%	+1.2pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Francisco Lindor Lineup pending NYM · SS · vs PHI	Total Bases 1.5	42%	-1.7pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Jackson Chourio Lineup pending MIL · LF · vs PIT	Total Bases 1.5	42%	-6.9pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Mickey Moniak Lineup pending COL · LF · vs SD	Total Bases 1.5	41%	-1.8pp	low	Underdog 1.5
Manager context Schaeffer rests LHB vs RHP in 24% of starts (102nd pct); Moniak started 96% vs RHP last 30 days
	Konnor Griffin Lineup pending PIT · SS · vs MIL	Total Bases 1.5	41%	-0.8pp	low	Underdog 1.5
Manager context Kelly rests RHB vs LHP in 40% of starts (102nd pct); Griffin started 100% vs LHP last 30 days
	Dane Myers CIN · CF · vs LAD Limited data	Total Bases 1.5	41%	-0.2pp	low	Underdog 1.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Jake Rogers Lineup pending CWS · C · vs DET Limited data	Total Bases 0.5	41%	-14.2pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Juan Soto Lineup pending NYM · LF · vs PHI	Total Bases 1.5	41%	-2.5pp	low	Underdog 1.5
Manager context Green rests LHB vs RHP in 19% of starts (93rd pct); Soto started 43% vs RHP last 30 days
	Hao-Yu Lee Lineup pending DET · 2B · vs CWS	Total Bases 1.5	41%	-0.3pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Maikel Garcia Lineup pending KC · 3B · vs HOU	Total Bases 1.5	41%	+2.4pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Connor Norby Lineup pending COL · 2B · vs SD	Total Bases 1.5	41%	-0.2pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Zach Neto Lineup pending LAA · SS · vs MIN	Total Bases 1.5	41%	+0.6pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Chase Meidroth Lineup pending CWS · 2B · vs DET	Total Bases 1.5	41%	-0.2pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Adley Rutschman Lineup pending BOS · C · vs TEX	Total Bases 1.5	41%	+2.2pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Jackson Merrill Lineup pending SD · CF · vs COL	Hits 1.5	41%	+0.6pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Ezequiel Duran Lineup pending TEX · SS · vs BOS	Total Bases 1.5	41%	+3.5pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Freddie Freeman LAD · 1B · vs CIN	Hits 1.5	40%	+8.6pp	low	Underdog 1.5
Recent form Freeman .220 over last 14 games (.293 season — slumping)
	Luis Arraez Lineup pending PHI · 2B · vs NYM	Total Bases 1.5	40%	+0.5pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Vinnie Pasquantino Lineup pending KC · 1B · vs HOU	Total Bases 1.5	39%	-0.6pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Jake Rogers Lineup pending CWS · C · vs DET Limited data	Hits 0.5	38%	-15.7pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Christian Yelich Lineup pending MIL · DH · vs PIT	Total Bases 1.5	37%	-0.8pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Yandy Díaz TB · DH · vs ATH	Hits 1.5	37%	-1.0pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Chandler Simpson TB · LF · vs ATH	Hits 1.5	35%	+2.1pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Corey Seager Lineup pending TEX · SS · vs BOS	Total Bases 1.5	35%	-6.1pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Junior Caminero TB · 3B · vs ATH	Hits 1.5	34%	+3.1pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Bryan Reynolds Lineup pending PIT · LF · vs MIL	Total Bases 1.5	34%	-5.9pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Luis Lara Lineup pending MIL · RF · vs PIT	Total Bases 1.5	34%	-2.9pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Manny Machado Lineup pending SD · 3B · vs COL	Hits 1.5	33%	-6.8pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Kevin McGonigle Lineup pending DET · SS · vs CWS	Total Bases 1.5	33%	-9.0pp	low	Underdog 1.5
Manager context Hinch rests LHB vs RHP in 7% of starts (2nd pct); McGonigle started 94% vs RHP last 30 days
	Tommy Edman LAD · 2B · vs CIN	Hits 1.5	33%	-1.1pp	low	Underdog 1.5
Recent form Edman .176 over last 14 games (.250 season — slumping)
	Xander Bogaerts Lineup pending SD · SS · vs COL	Total Bases 1.5	32%	-16.4pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Luke Keaschall Lineup pending MIN · 2B · vs LAA	Total Bases 1.5	31%	-6.3pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Jeremy Peña Lineup pending HOU · SS · vs KC	Hits 1.5	31%	-1.5pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Jake McCarthy Lineup pending COL · LF · vs SD	Hits 1.5	30%	-4.8pp	low	Underdog 1.5
Manager context Schaeffer rests LHB vs RHP in 24% of starts (102nd pct); McCarthy started 63% vs RHP last 30 days
	Brice Turang Lineup pending MIL · 2B · vs PIT	Total Bases 1.5	28%	-13.0pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Kody Clemens Lineup pending MIN · 2B · vs LAA	Total Bases 1.5	28%	-11.3pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Trea Turner Lineup pending PHI · SS · vs NYM	Total Bases 1.5	28%	-11.9pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Jahmai Jones Lineup pending BOS · DH · vs TEX Limited data	Total Bases 1.5	28%	-11.6pp	low	Underdog 1.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Miguel Vargas Lineup pending CWS · 3B · vs DET	Total Bases 1.5	28%	-17.4pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Bo Bichette Lineup pending NYM · 3B · vs PHI	Hits 1.5	28%	-7.1pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Jackson Chourio Lineup pending MIL · LF · vs PIT	Hits 1.5	27%	-9.7pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Brooks Lee Lineup pending MIN · 3B · vs LAA	Total Bases 1.5	26%	-14.2pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Jeff McNeil Lineup pending ATH · 2B · vs TB	Total Bases 1.5	26%	-10.9pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Yordan Alvarez Lineup pending HOU · DH · vs KC	Hits 1.5	26%	-6.5pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Bryce Harper Lineup pending PHI · 1B · vs NYM	Total Bases 1.5	25%	-15.2pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Walker Jenkins Lineup pending MIN · CF · vs LAA	Hits 0.5	24%	-27.4pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Xander Bogaerts Lineup pending SD · SS · vs COL	Hits 1.5	24%	-13.7pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Roman Anthony Lineup pending BOS · LF · vs TEX	Total Bases 1.5	23%	-17.5pp	low	Underdog 1.5
	Walker Jenkins Lineup pending MIN · CF · vs LAA	Total Bases 0.5	23%	-28.9pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Max Muncy LAD · 3B · vs CIN	HR 0.5	16%	-19.1pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Recent form Muncy 2 HR in last 14 games (3.8% PA vs 5.4% season — pop quiet)
	Junior Caminero TB · 3B · vs ATH	HR 0.5	16%	-12.5pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Juan Soto Lineup pending NYM · LF · vs PHI	HR 0.5	16%	-14.1pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Green rests LHB vs RHP in 19% of starts (93rd pct); Soto started 43% vs RHP last 30 days
	Sal Stewart CIN · 1B · vs LAD	HR 0.5	16%	-9.2pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Recent form Stewart 0 HR in last 14 games (0.0% PA vs 4.8% season — pop quiet)
	Mookie Betts LAD · SS · vs CIN Not starting	HR 0.5	16%	-6.2pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Ty France Lineup pending SD · 1B · vs COL	HR 0.5	16%	-10.2pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Elly De La Cruz CIN · SS · vs LAD	HR 0.5	16%	-13.8pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Recent form Cruz 7 HR in last 14 games (11.7% PA vs 4.8% season — pop spiking)
	Eugenio Suárez CIN · DH · vs LAD Not starting	HR 0.5	16%	-8.8pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Dillon Dingler Lineup pending DET · C · vs CWS	HR 0.5	16%	-5.1pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Manny Machado Lineup pending SD · 3B · vs COL	HR 0.5	16%	-13.8pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Francisco Lindor Lineup pending NYM · SS · vs PHI	HR 0.5	16%	-10.2pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Teoscar Hernández LAD · LF · vs CIN	HR 0.5	16%	-7.3pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Recent form Hernández 3 HR in last 14 games (5.1% PA vs 3.4% season — pop spiking)
	Josue De Paula LAD · RF · vs CIN Limited data	HR 0.5	16%	-8.2pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Small sample. Limited 2026 MLB sample — projection weighted heavily on prior seasons / minor-league data.
	JJ Bleday CIN · LF · vs LAD Not starting	HR 0.5	16%	-5.1pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Spencer Torkelson Lineup pending DET · 1B · vs CWS	HR 0.5	16%	-6.2pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Ryan Vilade TB · RF · vs ATH Limited data	HR 0.5	16%	+0.9pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Recent form Vilade 0 HR in last 14 games (0.0% PA vs 4.6% season — pop quiet) Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Oneil Cruz Lineup pending PIT · CF · vs MIL	HR 0.5	16%	-7.8pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Luis Campusano Lineup pending SD · C · vs COL	HR 0.5	16%	-5.8pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Adael Amador Lineup pending COL · 2B · vs SD	HR 0.5	16%	+1.3pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Jackson Merrill Lineup pending SD · CF · vs COL	HR 0.5	16%	-12.5pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Yordan Alvarez Lineup pending HOU · DH · vs KC	HR 0.5	16%	-19.6pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Héctor Rodríguez CIN · RF · vs LAD	HR 0.5	16%	-7.0pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Recent form Rodríguez 1 HR in last 14 games (1.8% PA vs 4.1% season — pop quiet)
	Jonathan Aranda TB · 1B · vs ATH	HR 0.5	16%	-1.1pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Recent form Aranda 4 HR in last 14 games (7.0% PA vs 3.4% season — pop spiking)
	Fernando Tatis Jr. Lineup pending SD · RF · vs COL	HR 0.5	16%	-13.9pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Ryan O'Hearn Lineup pending PIT · RF · vs MIL	HR 0.5	16%	+1.0pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Freddie Freeman LAD · 1B · vs CIN	HR 0.5	16%	-7.5pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Liam Hicks TB · C · vs ATH	HR 0.5	16%	+4.4pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Francisco Alvarez Lineup pending NYM · C · vs PHI	HR 0.5	16%	-6.8pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Kyle Schwarber Lineup pending PHI · DH · vs NYM	HR 0.5	16%	-14.8pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Yandy Díaz TB · DH · vs ATH	HR 0.5	16%	-4.4pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Tyler Stephenson CIN · C · vs LAD	HR 0.5	16%	-6.8pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Riley Greene Lineup pending DET · LF · vs CWS	HR 0.5	16%	-13.4pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Hinch rests LHB vs RHP in 7% of starts (2nd pct); Greene started 100% vs RHP last 30 days
	Mickey Moniak Lineup pending COL · LF · vs SD	HR 0.5	15%	-7.8pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Schaeffer rests LHB vs RHP in 24% of starts (102nd pct); Moniak started 96% vs RHP last 30 days
	John Peck Lineup pending DET · SS · vs CWS Limited data	HR 0.5	15%	+0.4pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Small sample. Limited 2026 MLB sample — projection weighted heavily on prior seasons / minor-league data.
	Matt McLain CIN · 2B · vs LAD	HR 0.5	15%	-7.9pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Jac Caglianone Lineup pending KC · RF · vs HOU	HR 0.5	15%	-13.5pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Zach Neto Lineup pending LAA · SS · vs MIN	HR 0.5	15%	-6.2pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Kyle Tucker LAD · RF · vs CIN	HR 0.5	15%	-10.3pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Recent form Tucker 4 HR in last 14 games (7.4% PA vs 2.6% season — pop spiking)
	Carter Jensen Lineup pending KC · C · vs HOU	HR 0.5	15%	-12.5pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Jonny DeLuca TB · RF · vs ATH	HR 0.5	15%	-0.0pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Carson Benge Lineup pending NYM · RF · vs PHI	HR 0.5	15%	-2.8pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Green rests LHB vs RHP in 19% of starts (93rd pct); Benge started 100% vs RHP last 30 days
	Henry Davis Lineup pending PIT · C · vs MIL Limited data	HR 0.5	15%	-4.9pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Kelly rests RHB vs LHP in 40% of starts (102nd pct); Davis started 17% vs LHP last 30 days Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Josh Lowe Lineup pending LAA · LF · vs MIN Limited data	HR 0.5	15%	-2.4pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Suzuki rests LHB vs RHP in 7% of starts (5th pct); Lowe started 100% vs RHP last 30 days Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Randal Grichuk Lineup pending CWS · DH · vs DET Limited data	HR 0.5	14%	-9.5pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Tommy Edman LAD · 2B · vs CIN	HR 0.5	14%	-6.8pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Christian Walker Lineup pending HOU · 1B · vs KC	HR 0.5	14%	-8.8pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Mike Trout Lineup pending LAA · CF · vs MIN	HR 0.5	14%	-10.0pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Dane Myers CIN · CF · vs LAD Limited data	HR 0.5	14%	-1.2pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Recent form Myers 2 HR in last 14 games (4.3% PA vs 2.3% season — pop spiking) Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Justin Foscue Lineup pending TEX · 2B · vs BOS Limited data	HR 0.5	14%	+4.5pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Jeremy Peña Lineup pending HOU · SS · vs KC	HR 0.5	14%	-5.2pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Hao-Yu Lee Lineup pending DET · 2B · vs CWS	HR 0.5	14%	+0.8pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Kevin McGonigle Lineup pending DET · SS · vs CWS	HR 0.5	14%	-3.1pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Hinch rests LHB vs RHP in 7% of starts (2nd pct); McGonigle started 94% vs RHP last 30 days
	Miguel Vargas Lineup pending CWS · 3B · vs DET	HR 0.5	14%	-15.1pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Jared Young Lineup pending NYM · 1B · vs PHI	HR 0.5	14%	-5.7pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Green rests LHB vs RHP in 19% of starts (93rd pct); Young started 19% vs RHP last 30 days
	Colt Keith Lineup pending DET · 3B · vs CWS Limited data	HR 0.5	14%	-5.7pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Hinch rests LHB vs RHP in 7% of starts (2nd pct); Keith started 100% vs RHP last 30 days Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Jorge Mateo TB · SS · vs ATH Not starting	HR 0.5	14%	+1.4pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Marcus Semien Lineup pending NYM · 2B · vs PHI	HR 0.5	14%	-2.2pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Bo Bichette Lineup pending NYM · 3B · vs PHI	HR 0.5	14%	-3.8pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Corey Seager Lineup pending TEX · SS · vs BOS	HR 0.5	14%	-11.5pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	A.J. Ewing Lineup pending NYM · CF · vs PHI	HR 0.5	14%	-1.1pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Willson Contreras Lineup pending BOS · 1B · vs TEX	HR 0.5	14%	-8.0pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Salvador Perez Lineup pending KC · DH · vs HOU	HR 0.5	14%	-8.9pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Jake Burger Lineup pending TEX · 1B · vs BOS	HR 0.5	14%	-8.2pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Shea Langeliers Lineup pending ATH · C · vs TB	HR 0.5	14%	-10.6pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Cam Smith Lineup pending HOU · RF · vs KC	HR 0.5	14%	-7.2pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Isaac Paredes Lineup pending HOU · 3B · vs KC	HR 0.5	14%	-7.6pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Juan Brito CIN · 2B · vs LAD	HR 0.5	14%	-5.0pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Recent form Brito 2 HR in last 14 games (4.4% PA vs 2.2% season — pop spiking)
	Bobby Witt Jr. Lineup pending KC · SS · vs HOU	HR 0.5	14%	-13.8pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Bryan Reynolds Lineup pending PIT · LF · vs MIL	HR 0.5	14%	-6.7pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Richie Palacios TB · 2B · vs ATH	HR 0.5	13%	+4.5pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Recent form Palacios 5 HR in last 14 games (13.2% PA vs 2.7% season — pop spiking)
	Bryce Harper Lineup pending PHI · 1B · vs NYM	HR 0.5	13%	-8.4pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Moisés Ballesteros Lineup pending LAA · DH · vs MIN	HR 0.5	13%	-2.9pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Suzuki rests LHB vs RHP in 7% of starts (5th pct); Ballesteros started 95% vs RHP last 30 days
	Denzer Guzman Lineup pending LAA · 3B · vs MIN	HR 0.5	13%	-0.7pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Kody Clemens Lineup pending MIN · 2B · vs LAA	HR 0.5	13%	-9.7pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Cole Carrigg Lineup pending COL · CF · vs SD	HR 0.5	13%	-1.8pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Brett Baty Lineup pending NYM · 3B · vs PHI	HR 0.5	13%	-5.3pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Green rests LHB vs RHP in 19% of starts (93rd pct); Baty started 95% vs RHP last 30 days
	Michael Massey Lineup pending KC · 2B · vs HOU	HR 0.5	13%	-5.4pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Wyatt Langford Lineup pending TEX · LF · vs BOS	HR 0.5	13%	-6.4pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Vinnie Pasquantino Lineup pending KC · 1B · vs HOU	HR 0.5	13%	-10.7pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Jake McCarthy Lineup pending COL · LF · vs SD	HR 0.5	13%	-0.6pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Schaeffer rests LHB vs RHP in 24% of starts (102nd pct); McCarthy started 63% vs RHP last 30 days
	Kyle Karros Lineup pending COL · 3B · vs SD	HR 0.5	13%	-0.2pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Xander Bogaerts Lineup pending SD · SS · vs COL	HR 0.5	13%	-8.1pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Jose Altuve Lineup pending HOU · 2B · vs KC	HR 0.5	13%	-4.6pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	TJ Rumfield Lineup pending COL · 1B · vs SD	HR 0.5	13%	+1.2pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Schaeffer rests LHB vs RHP in 24% of starts (102nd pct); Rumfield started 96% vs RHP last 30 days
	Jake Bauers Lineup pending MIL · 1B · vs PIT	HR 0.5	13%	-10.9pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Christian Vázquez Lineup pending HOU · C · vs KC	HR 0.5	13%	+4.6pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Elias Díaz Lineup pending TEX · C · vs BOS Limited data	HR 0.5	13%	-1.1pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Brett Sullivan Lineup pending COL · C · vs SD Limited data	HR 0.5	13%	-0.6pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Schaeffer rests LHB vs RHP in 24% of starts (102nd pct); Sullivan started 33% vs RHP last 30 days Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Zack Gelof Lineup pending ATH · 3B · vs TB	HR 0.5	13%	-6.2pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Alex Freeland LAD · 2B · vs CIN Limited data	HR 0.5	13%	-4.1pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Max Clark Lineup pending DET · CF · vs CWS	HR 0.5	13%	-5.8pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Jackson Chourio Lineup pending MIL · LF · vs PIT	HR 0.5	12%	-8.8pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Ke'Bryan Hayes CIN · 3B · vs LAD Limited data	HR 0.5	12%	-5.5pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Recent form Hayes 0 HR in last 14 games (0.0% PA vs 2.2% season — pop quiet) Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Vaughn Grissom Lineup pending LAA · 1B · vs MIN	HR 0.5	12%	-1.1pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Wilyer Abreu Lineup pending BOS · RF · vs TEX	HR 0.5	12%	-8.9pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Brooks Lee Lineup pending MIN · 3B · vs LAA	HR 0.5	12%	-5.5pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Brandon Marsh Lineup pending PHI · LF · vs NYM	HR 0.5	12%	-2.7pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Ryan Jeffers Lineup pending MIN · C · vs LAA	HR 0.5	12%	-7.6pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Shelton rests RHB vs RHP in 36% of starts (95th pct); Jeffers started 47% vs RHP last 30 days
	Miguel Rojas LAD · 2B · vs CIN Limited data	HR 0.5	12%	-0.8pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Brett Callahan Lineup pending DET · LF · vs CWS Limited data	HR 0.5	11%	-1.6pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Jake Cronenworth Lineup pending SD · 2B · vs COL	HR 0.5	11%	-4.7pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Jonah Heim Lineup pending ATH · C · vs TB	HR 0.5	11%	-1.5pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Trea Turner Lineup pending PHI · SS · vs NYM	HR 0.5	11%	-5.7pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Gary Sánchez Lineup pending MIL · C · vs PIT	HR 0.5	11%	-5.1pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Murphy rests RHB vs RHP in 46% of starts (98th pct); Sánchez started 53% vs RHP last 30 days
	Tommy Pham Lineup pending CWS · LF · vs DET Limited data	HR 0.5	11%	-5.9pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters. Small sample. Limited 2026 MLB sample — projection weighted heavily on prior seasons / minor-league data.
	TJ Friedl CIN · CF · vs LAD Limited data	HR 0.5	11%	-4.3pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Recent form Friedl 1 HR in last 14 games (6.3% PA vs 1.6% season — pop spiking) Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Konnor Griffin Lineup pending PIT · SS · vs MIL	HR 0.5	11%	-6.9pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Manager context Kelly rests RHB vs LHP in 40% of starts (102nd pct); Griffin started 100% vs LHP last 30 days
	Ezequiel Tovar Lineup pending COL · SS · vs SD	HR 0.5	11%	-4.4pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Daulton Varsho Lineup pending HOU · CF · vs KC	HR 0.5	11%	-10.3pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Emmanuel Rodriguez Lineup pending MIN · CF · vs LAA Limited data	HR 0.5	11%	-8.5pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Small sample. Limited 2026 MLB sample — projection weighted heavily on prior seasons / minor-league data.
	Ezequiel Duran Lineup pending TEX · SS · vs BOS	HR 0.5	11%	-3.2pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Nick Fortes TB · C · vs ATH Not starting	HR 0.5	11%	-2.3pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters.
	Nate Eaton Lineup pending BOS · LF · vs TEX Limited data	HR 0.5	11%	-3.6pp	low	Underdog 0.5
Quality flags Low expected PA. Bench/utility player — model assumes full role usage. Projection less reliable than for everyday starters. Small sample. Limited 2026 MLB sample — projection weighted heavily on prior seasons / minor-league data.
	Tristan Peters Lineup pending CWS · CF · vs DET	HR 0.5	10%	-1.4pp	low	Underdog 0.5
	Wilber Dotel PIT · SP · vs MIL Limited data	Strikeouts 1.5	28%	-24.9pp	low	Underdog 1.5
Quality flags Short-outing role. Reliever / opener / swingman — averages under 3 IP per appearance. Model treats them as starters unless gated; predictions historically inflate ~3-5× the realistic K count.