PITCHER BOARD — 2026-10-07
Tonight's Starting Pitchers
Updated 0s ago
Model Picks: 67.1% against a 57.7% break-even (6021–2948)
All published picks: 63.9% against the same bar (16566–9358)
Standard-priced lines: 62.3% vs the 57.7% bar (n=15812) · Reduced-payout (goblin) lines: 66.5% vs a ~70% bar (n=10098)
Model Picks are 7.8 points over the standard bar; roughly at the bar on reduced-payout lines.
We publish and grade every pick the model captures — hits and misses alike. 25,924 graded picks since 2026-05-27. Full ledger ↓
Payout tier known for 40% of graded picks; the rest are held to the standard 57.7% bar.
How our strikeout probabilities are graded → the calibration ledger
| Pitcher | K line (pick'em) | Calibrated over | Edge | Context | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
CLE vs CWS · 4:00 PM ET |
No K line yet | — | — | RHP · 4.11 ERA | |
|
CWS vs CLE · 4:00 PM ET |
No K line yet | — | — | LHP · 3.09 ERA | |
|
LAD vs ATL · 6:00 PM ET |
No K line yet | — | — | RHP · 3.53 ERA | |
|
ATL vs LAD · 6:00 PM ET |
No K line yet | — | — | RHP · 3.99 ERA | |
|
NYY vs TB · 8:00 PM ET |
No K line yet | — | — | LHP · 2.80 ERA | |
|
TB vs NYY · 8:00 PM ET |
No K line yet | — | — | RHP · 3.10 ERA | |
|
SD vs MIL · 10:00 PM ET |
No K line yet | — | — | RHP · 4.63 ERA |
The full slate, not a picks list — most starters show no edge, and the board says so. Calibrated probabilities come from graded history, not the raw model.
THE LEDGER
No fully graded slate in the last four days — the ledger updates after the morning grading run.