PITCHER BOARD — 2026-07-08

Tonight's Starting Pitchers

Updated 0s ago
Model Picks: 69.4% against a 57.7% break-even (2413–1063)
All published picks: 65.9% against the same bar (6757–3490)
Standard-priced lines: 62.1% vs the 57.7% bar (n=1472) · Reduced-payout (goblin) lines: 66.6% vs a ~70% bar (n=8761)
Model Picks are 7.0 points over the standard bar; roughly at the bar on reduced-payout lines.

We publish and grade every pick the model captures — hits and misses alike. 10,247 graded picks since 2026-05-27. Full ledger ↓

Payout tier known for 87% of graded picks; the rest are held to the standard 57.7% bar.
MODEL PICKS TODAY None yet — the badge appears when a calibrated probability clears the 64% bar.
Pitcher K line (pick'em) Calibrated over Edge Context
Dylan Cease matchup →
TOR vs SF · 3:45 PM ET
 o6.5 Line closed 57% -0.1pp xIP 5.4 Schneider averages 96 pitches before pulling Cease (19 starts, 9 over 100); SF 18.9% K-rate vs RHP Final
Logan Webb matchup →
SF vs TOR · 3:45 PM ET
 o4.5 Underdog Line closed 40% -11.0pp xIP 6.1 Vitello averages 88 pitches before pulling Webb (18 starts, 4 over 100); TOR 16.2% K-rate vs RHP Final
Colin Rea matchup →
CHC vs BAL · 6:35 PM ET
 o4.5 Underdog Line closed 48% +5.9pp xIP 5.3 Counsell averages 83 pitches before pulling Rea (17 starts, 1 over 100); BAL 24.6% K-rate vs RHP Final
Dean Kremer matchup →
BAL vs CHC · 6:35 PM ET
 o4.5 Underdog Line closed 62% +0.3pp xIP 5.6 Final
George Kirby matchup →
SEA vs MIA · 6:40 PM ET
 o4.5 Underdog Line closed 55% -2.1pp xIP 5.8 Final
Gerrit Cole matchup →
NYY vs TB · 6:40 PM ET
 o4.5 Underdog Line closed 45% -12.6pp xIP 5.5 Boone averages 71 pitches before pulling Cole (10 starts, 0 over 100); TB 19.2% K-rate vs RHP Final
Grant Holmes matchup →
ATL vs PIT · 6:40 PM ET
 o4.5 Underdog Line closed 50% -4.2pp xIP 5.2 Weiss averages 73 pitches before pulling Holmes (21 starts, 0 over 100); PIT 22.5% K-rate vs RHP Final
Jared Jones matchup →
PIT vs ATL · 6:40 PM ET
 o4.5 Underdog Line closed 64% +8.3pp xIP 5.5 Kelly averages 71 pitches before pulling Jones (7 starts, 0 over 100); ATL 20.5% K-rate vs RHP Final
Jeffrey Springs matchup →
ATH vs DET · 6:40 PM ET
 o4.5 Underdog Line closed 53% +4.2pp xIP 5.2 Kotsay averages 81 pitches before pulling Springs (22 starts, 1 over 100); DET 25.2% K-rate vs LHP Final
Shane McClanahan matchup →
TB vs NYY · 6:40 PM ET
 o5.5 Underdog Line closed 40% -7.1pp xIP 5.1 Cash averages 72 pitches before pulling McClanahan (20 starts, 0 over 100); NYY 22.9% K-rate vs LHP Final
Troy Melton matchup →
DET vs ATH · 6:40 PM ET
 o4.5 Underdog Line closed 60% +2.4pp xIP 5.8 Final
Tyler Phillips matchup →
MIA vs SEA · 6:40 PM ET
 o4.5 Underdog Line closed 6% -36.9pp xIP 1.1 McCullough averages 73 pitches before pulling Phillips (8 starts, 0 over 100); SEA 22.9% K-rate vs RHP Final
Foster Griffin matchup →
WSH vs HOU · 6:45 PM ET
 o4.5 Underdog Line closed 70% +11.1pp xIP 5.8 Final
Spencer Arrighetti matchup →
HOU vs WSH · 6:45 PM ET
 o4.5 Underdog Line closed 52% -0.7pp xIP 5.3 Espada averages 92 pitches before pulling Arrighetti (14 starts, 3 over 100); WSH 20.3% K-rate vs RHP Final
Alan Rangel matchup →
PHI vs CIN · 7:10 PM ET
 o4.5 Underdog Line closed 70% +24.1pp xIP 5.5 No notable signal for this matchup beyond baseline projection. In progress
Chase Burns matchup →
CIN vs PHI · 7:10 PM ET
 o6.5 Line closed 40% -17.8pp xIP 5.3 No notable signal for this matchup beyond baseline projection. In progress
Christian Scott matchup →
NYM vs KC · 7:10 PM ET
 o5.5 Underdog Line closed 40% -13.9pp xIP 4.5 No notable signal for this matchup beyond baseline projection. Final
Steven Cruz matchup →
KC vs NYM · 7:10 PM ET
 o1.5 Underdog Line closed 33% -4.3pp xIP 1.1 No notable signal for this matchup beyond baseline projection. Final
Connor Prielipp matchup →
MIN vs CLE · 7:40 PM ET
 o5.5 Underdog Line closed 53% -3.8pp xIP 5.1 Shelton averages 89 pitches before pulling Prielipp (12 starts, 0 over 100); CLE 25.0% K-rate vs LHP In progress
Davis Martin matchup →
CWS vs BOS · 7:40 PM ET
 o4.5 Underdog Line closed 53% -1.3pp xIP 5.5 Venable averages 82 pitches before pulling Martin (20 starts, 2 over 100); BOS 22.2% K-rate vs RHP In progress
Jake Bennett matchup →
BOS vs CWS · 7:40 PM ET
 o4.5 Underdog Line closed 43% -4.3pp xIP 5.5 Tracy averages 71 pitches before pulling Bennett (9 starts, 0 over 100); CWS 21.9% K-rate vs LHP In progress
Slade Cecconi matchup →
CLE vs MIN · 7:40 PM ET
 o3.5 Underdog Line closed 58% +2.5pp xIP 5.5 No notable signal for this matchup beyond baseline projection. In progress
Kyle Harrison matchup →
MIL vs STL · 7:45 PM ET
 o4.5 Line closed 57% -1.3pp xIP 4.8 No notable signal for this matchup beyond baseline projection. Final
Michael McGreevy matchup →
STL vs MIL · 7:45 PM ET
 o3.5 Underdog Line closed 62% +8.8pp xIP 5.6 No notable signal for this matchup beyond baseline projection. Final
MacKenzie Gore matchup →
TEX vs LAA · 8:05 PM ET
 o6.5 Underdog Line closed 57% +1.5pp xIP 5.3 Schumaker averages 83 pitches before pulling Gore (21 starts, 3 over 100); LAA 25.8% K-rate vs LHP In progress
Walbert Ureña matchup →
LAA vs TEX · 8:05 PM ET
 o4.5 Underdog Line closed 53% +6.2pp xIP 5.3 No notable signal for this matchup beyond baseline projection. In progress
Gabriel Hughes matchup →
COL vs LAD · 10:10 PM ET
 o2.5 Line closed 71% +12.2pp xIP 5.5 No notable signal for this matchup beyond baseline projection. In progress
Jose Cabrera matchup →
AZ vs SD · 10:10 PM ET
 o3.5 Underdog Line closed 65% +15.6pp xIP 5.5 No notable signal for this matchup beyond baseline projection. In progress
Michael King matchup →
SD vs AZ · 10:10 PM ET
 o4.5 Underdog Line closed 37% -13.3pp xIP 5.3 No notable signal for this matchup beyond baseline projection. In progress
Roki Sasaki matchup →
LAD vs COL · 10:10 PM ET
 o4.5 Line closed 46% -12.3pp xIP 4.8 Roberts averages 80 pitches before pulling Sasaki (18 starts, 1 over 100); COL 22.3% K-rate vs RHP In progress

The full slate, not a picks list — most starters show no edge, and the board says so. Calibrated probabilities come from graded history, not the raw model.

THE LEDGER — YESTERDAY — 2026-07-07

Slate: 202–104 (66% against a 57.7% break-even; pushes and voids excluded).
Season since 2026-05-27: Model Picks 69.4% · all published 65.9% — both against the 57.7% break-even (tier bars shown above).

PickMarket · lineCaptured probResult
Matthew Boyd Strikeouts o3.5 goblin 71% HIT
Michael Lorenzen Strikeouts o2.5 goblin 71% HIT
Jacob deGrom Strikeouts o5.5 goblin 71% HIT
José Soriano Strikeouts o3.5 goblin 71% HIT
Andrew Alvarez Strikeouts o2.5 goblin 71% HIT
Max Meyer Strikeouts o4.5 goblin 71% MISS
Justin Wrobleski Strikeouts o3.5 goblin 71% HIT
Hurston Waldrep Strikeouts o2.5 goblin 71% MISS
Noah Schultz Strikeouts o3.5 goblin 71% MISS
Zac Gallen Strikeouts o2.5 goblin 71% HIT
Trevor McDonald Strikeouts o2.5 goblin 71% MISS
Zack Wheeler Strikeouts o5.5 goblin 71% HIT
Germán Márquez Strikeouts o1.5 goblin 71% HIT
Payton Tolle Strikeouts o3.5 goblin 71% HIT
Seth Lugo Strikeouts o2.5 goblin 71% HIT
Bryan Woo Strikeouts o3.5 goblin 71% HIT
J.T. Ginn Strikeouts o3.5 goblin 70% HIT
Taj Bradley Strikeouts o4.5 goblin 70% HIT
Robert Gasser Strikeouts o3.5 goblin 69% HIT
Paul Skenes Strikeouts o4.5 goblin 69% MISS
Shane Baz Strikeouts o3.5 goblin 67% MISS
Will Warren Strikeouts o3.5 goblin 66% MISS
Andrew Abbott Strikeouts o3.5 goblin 65% HIT
Tarik Skubal Strikeouts o6.5 goblin 64% HIT
Jacob Misiorowski Strikeouts o5.5 goblin 64% HIT
Joey Cantillo Strikeouts o3.5 goblin 64% HIT
Tatsuya Imai Strikeouts o3.5 goblin 56% MISS
Samad Taylor Hits o0.5 66% HIT
Luis Campusano Hits o0.5 goblin 66% HIT
Jac Caglianone Hits o0.5 goblin 66% HIT
Alec Burleson Hits o0.5 66% MISS
Max Muncy Hits o0.5 goblin 66% MISS
Esmerlyn Valdez Hits o0.5 goblin 66% HIT
Garrett Mitchell Hits o0.5 goblin 66% HIT
Kyle Schwarber Hits o0.5 goblin 66% HIT
Corbin Carroll Hits o0.5 goblin 66% MISS
Bryce Harper Hits o0.5 goblin 66% MISS
Kyle Tucker Hits o0.5 goblin 66% MISS
Jake Mangum Hits o0.5 goblin 66% HIT
Dalton Rushing Hits o0.5 goblin 66% MISS
Andrew Vaughn Hits o0.5 66% HIT
Taylor Ward Hits o0.5 goblin 66% MISS
Jonathan Aranda Hits o0.5 goblin 66% MISS
Jordan Walker Hits o0.5 goblin 66% HIT
Chandler Simpson Hits o0.5 goblin 66% MISS
Pete Crow-Armstrong Hits o0.5 goblin 66% HIT
Tommy Edman Hits o0.5 goblin 66% HIT
Bobby Witt Jr. Hits o0.5 goblin 66% HIT
Gabriel Moreno Hits o0.5 goblin 66% HIT
Juan Soto Hits o0.5 goblin 66% HIT
Nick Gonzales Hits o0.5 goblin 66% HIT
Ketel Marte Hits o0.5 goblin 66% HIT
Yandy Díaz Hits o0.5 goblin 66% HIT
Freddie Freeman Hits o0.5 goblin 66% HIT
Yordan Alvarez Hits o0.5 goblin 66% MISS
Otto Lopez Hits o0.5 goblin 66% HIT
Andy Pages Hits o0.5 goblin 66% HIT
Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits o0.5 goblin 66% HIT
Jackson Chourio Hits o0.5 goblin 66% HIT
Adley Rutschman Hits o0.5 goblin 66% HIT
Gavin Sheets Hits o0.5 goblin 65% MISS
Bo Bichette Hits o0.5 goblin 65% HIT
Michael Massey Hits o0.5 goblin 65% HIT
Samuel Basallo Hits o0.5 goblin 65% HIT
A.J. Ewing Hits o0.5 goblin 65% HIT
JJ Wetherholt Hits o0.5 goblin 65% HIT
Keibert Ruiz Hits o0.5 goblin 65% MISS
Junior Caminero Hits o0.5 goblin 65% MISS
Carson Benge Hits o0.5 goblin 65% HIT
Ryan O'Hearn Hits o0.5 goblin 65% HIT
Bryan Reynolds Hits o0.5 goblin 65% MISS
Pete Alonso Hits o0.5 goblin 65% HIT
Bryson Stott Hits o0.5 goblin 65% MISS
Xander Bogaerts Hits o0.5 goblin 65% MISS
CJ Abrams Hits o0.5 goblin 65% HIT
James Wood Hits o0.5 goblin 65% HIT
Carter Jensen Hits o0.5 goblin 65% HIT
Justin Crawford Hits o0.5 goblin 65% HIT
Seiya Suzuki Hits o0.5 goblin 65% MISS
Nathan Church Hits o0.5 goblin 65% MISS
Brice Turang Hits o0.5 goblin 65% HIT
Trea Turner Hits o0.5 goblin 65% HIT
Iván Herrera Hits o0.5 goblin 65% HIT
Byron Buxton Hits o0.5 goblin 65% VOID — excluded from the record
Ernie Clement Hits o0.5 goblin 65% HIT
Geraldo Perdomo Hits o0.5 goblin 64% MISS
Jake Bauers Hits o0.5 goblin 64% HIT
Nolan Arenado Hits o0.5 goblin 64% MISS
Ezequiel Duran Hits o0.5 goblin 64% HIT
Anthony Seigler Hits o0.5 goblin 64% HIT
Jackson Merrill Hits o0.5 goblin 64% HIT
Nico Hoerner Hits o0.5 goblin 64% HIT
Brayan Rocchio Hits o0.5 goblin 64% MISS
Xavier Edwards Hits o0.5 goblin 64% HIT
Masyn Winn Hits o0.5 goblin 64% MISS
Nick Loftin Hits o0.5 goblin 64% HIT
Nathan Lukes Hits o0.5 goblin 64% HIT
Michael Harris II Hits o0.5 goblin 64% HIT
Zack Gelof Hits o0.5 goblin 64% HIT
Cole Carrigg Hits o0.5 goblin 64% HIT
Riley Greene Hits o0.5 goblin 64% MISS
Jake McCarthy Hits o0.5 goblin 64% MISS
Chase DeLauter Hits o0.5 goblin 64% HIT
Isaac Paredes Hits o0.5 goblin 64% HIT
Kevin McGonigle Hits o0.5 goblin 64% HIT
Alec Bohm Hits o0.5 goblin 64% MISS
Alex Bregman Hits o0.5 goblin 64% HIT
TJ Rumfield Hits o0.5 goblin 64% HIT
Daylen Lile Hits o0.5 goblin 64% MISS
Gunnar Henderson Hits o0.5 goblin 64% HIT
Willson Contreras Hits o0.5 goblin 64% HIT
Josh Bell Hits o0.5 goblin 64% HIT
Brooks Lee Hits o0.5 goblin 64% HIT
Curtis Mead Hits o0.5 goblin 64% HIT
Luis Arraez Hits o0.5 goblin 64% HIT
Sam Antonacci Hits o0.5 goblin 64% HIT
Jacob Wilson Hits o0.5 goblin 64% MISS
Lane Thomas Hits o0.5 goblin 64% HIT
Jung Hoo Lee Hits o0.5 goblin 64% MISS
Austin Martin Hits o0.5 goblin 64% HIT
Nick Kurtz Hits o0.5 goblin 63% MISS
Brandon Nimmo Hits o0.5 goblin 63% MISS
Michael Busch Hits o0.5 goblin 63% MISS
Liam Hicks Hits o0.5 goblin 63% HIT
Sal Frelick Hits o0.5 63% MISS
Blaze Jordan Hits o0.5 goblin 63% MISS
Jose Altuve Hits o0.5 goblin 63% HIT
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Hits o0.5 goblin 63% HIT
Javier Sanoja Hits o0.5 goblin 63% HIT
Jared Triolo Hits o0.5 goblin 63% HIT
Kody Clemens Hits o0.5 goblin 63% HIT
Denzer Guzman Hits o0.5 goblin 63% HIT
Ceddanne Rafaela Hits o0.5 goblin 63% HIT
Shea Langeliers Hits o0.5 goblin 63% HIT
Christian Yelich Hits o0.5 goblin 63% HIT
Ben Rice Hits o0.5 goblin 63% HIT
Yohendrick Piñango Hits o0.5 goblin 63% VOID — excluded from the record
Victor Caratini Hits o0.5 goblin 63% HIT
Alejandro Osuna Hits o0.5 goblin 63% HIT
Francisco Lindor Hits o0.5 goblin 63% MISS
Brandon Lowe Hits o0.5 goblin 63% HIT
Travis Bazzana Hits o0.5 goblin 63% MISS
Ozzie Albies Hits o0.5 goblin 63% HIT
Tyler Freeman Hits o0.5 goblin 63% HIT
Nasim Nuñez Hits o0.5 63% HIT
Chase Meidroth Hits o0.5 goblin 63% MISS
Jake Burger Hits o0.5 goblin 63% HIT
Paul Goldschmidt Hits o0.5 goblin 63% MISS
Elly De La Cruz Hits o0.5 goblin 63% MISS
Salvador Perez Hits o0.5 goblin 63% HIT
Kahlil Watson Hits o0.5 goblin 63% MISS
Oswald Peraza Hits o0.5 63% HIT
Manny Machado Hits o0.5 goblin 63% MISS
Mauricio Dubón Hits o0.5 goblin 63% HIT
Christian Walker Hits o0.5 goblin 63% HIT
Dillon Dingler Hits o0.5 goblin 63% MISS
Nolan Schanuel Hits o0.5 goblin 63% HIT
Matt Olson Hits o0.5 goblin 63% HIT
Jo Adell Hits o0.5 goblin 63% HIT
Cam Smith Hits o0.5 goblin 63% MISS
Joc Pederson Hits o0.5 goblin 63% MISS
J.T. Realmuto Hits o0.5 goblin 63% MISS
Zach Neto Hits o0.5 goblin 62% MISS
Willi Castro Hits o0.5 goblin 62% HIT
Kyle Karros Hits o0.5 goblin 62% MISS
Randy Arozarena Hits o0.5 goblin 62% HIT
Wilyer Abreu Hits o0.5 goblin 62% MISS
Mickey Moniak Hits o0.5 62% HIT
Jacob Young Hits o0.5 goblin 62% MISS
Daulton Varsho Hits o0.5 goblin 62% MISS
Jonah Heim Hits o0.5 goblin 62% HIT
Ian Happ Hits o0.5 goblin 62% MISS
Colt Keith Hits o0.5 goblin 62% HIT
Sal Stewart Hits o0.5 goblin 62% HIT
Josh Smith Hits o0.5 62% HIT
Drake Baldwin Hits o0.5 goblin 62% MISS
Royce Lewis Hits o0.5 goblin 62% MISS
Miguel Vargas Hits o0.5 goblin 62% MISS
José Caballero Hits o0.5 goblin 61% MISS
Jake Cronenworth Hits o0.5 goblin 61% HIT
Cedric Mullins Hits o0.5 goblin 61% MISS
Alex Freeland Hits o0.5 goblin 61% HIT
Cody Bellinger Hits o0.5 goblin 61% HIT
Nathaniel Lowe Hits o0.5 goblin 61% MISS
Joe Mack Hits o0.5 goblin 61% MISS
Kyle Manzardo Hits o0.5 goblin 61% MISS
Coby Mayo Hits o0.5 goblin 61% MISS
Andrés Giménez Hits o0.5 goblin 61% HIT
Jorge Soler Hits o0.5 61% HIT
Max Muncy Hits o0.5 61% MISS
Kyle Stowers Hits o0.5 goblin 61% MISS
Daniel Schneemann Hits o0.5 61% MISS
Casey Schmitt Hits o0.5 goblin 61% HIT
Spencer Steer Hits o0.5 goblin 61% HIT
Heliot Ramos Hits o0.5 goblin 61% HIT
JJ Bleday Hits o0.5 goblin 60% HIT
Brandon Valenzuela Hits o0.5 60% HIT
Kerry Carpenter Hits o0.5 goblin 60% MISS
Henry Bolte Hits o0.5 goblin 60% HIT
Trent Grisham Hits o0.5 goblin 60% HIT
Isaac Collins Hits o0.5 goblin 59% HIT
Cole Young Hits o0.5 goblin 59% HIT
Wade Meckler Hits o0.5 59% HIT
Lars Nootbaar Hits o0.5 goblin 59% HIT
Dylan Beavers Hits o0.5 goblin 59% MISS
Josh Naylor Hits o0.5 goblin 59% HIT
Jorge Polanco Hits o0.5 58% HIT
Colson Montgomery Hits o0.5 goblin 58% MISS
Kazuma Okamoto Hits o0.5 goblin 58% HIT
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits o0.5 58% HIT
Luke Keaschall Hits o0.5 goblin 58% HIT
Jarren Duran Hits o0.5 goblin 58% HIT
Richie Palacios Hits o0.5 57% HIT
Caleb Durbin Hits o0.5 goblin 57% MISS
Brett Baty Hits o0.5 goblin 56% HIT
Connor Wong Hits o0.5 goblin 56% HIT
Griffin Conine Hits o0.5 goblin 55% HIT
Taylor Walls Hits o0.5 55% HIT
Freddie Freeman Total Bases o0.5 goblin 62% HIT
Bryce Harper Total Bases o0.5 goblin 62% MISS
Max Muncy Total Bases o0.5 goblin 62% MISS
Yandy Díaz Total Bases o0.5 goblin 62% HIT
Kyle Schwarber Total Bases o0.5 goblin 62% HIT
Kyle Tucker Total Bases o0.5 goblin 62% MISS
Jake Mangum Total Bases o0.5 goblin 62% HIT
Juan Soto Total Bases o0.5 goblin 62% HIT
Tommy Edman Total Bases o0.5 goblin 62% HIT
Otto Lopez Total Bases o0.5 goblin 62% HIT
Bobby Witt Jr. Total Bases o0.5 goblin 62% HIT
Andy Pages Total Bases o0.5 goblin 62% HIT
Dalton Rushing Total Bases o0.5 goblin 62% MISS
Pete Crow-Armstrong Total Bases o0.5 goblin 62% HIT
Nick Gonzales Total Bases o0.5 goblin 62% HIT
Esmerlyn Valdez Total Bases o0.5 goblin 62% HIT
Ketel Marte Total Bases o0.5 goblin 62% HIT
Fernando Tatis Jr. Total Bases o0.5 goblin 62% HIT
Luis Campusano Total Bases o0.5 goblin 62% HIT
Gabriel Moreno Total Bases o0.5 goblin 62% HIT
Yordan Alvarez Total Bases o0.5 goblin 62% MISS
Taylor Ward Total Bases o0.5 goblin 62% MISS
Corbin Carroll Total Bases o0.5 goblin 62% MISS
Chandler Simpson Total Bases o0.5 goblin 62% MISS
Jac Caglianone Total Bases o0.5 goblin 62% HIT
Jonathan Aranda Total Bases o0.5 goblin 61% MISS
Adley Rutschman Total Bases o0.5 goblin 61% HIT
Gavin Sheets Total Bases o0.5 goblin 61% MISS
Bo Bichette Total Bases o0.5 goblin 61% HIT
Michael Massey Total Bases o0.5 goblin 61% HIT
Samuel Basallo Total Bases o0.5 goblin 61% HIT
A.J. Ewing Total Bases o0.5 goblin 61% HIT
Keibert Ruiz Total Bases o0.5 goblin 61% MISS
Junior Caminero Total Bases o0.5 goblin 61% MISS
Carson Benge Total Bases o0.5 goblin 61% HIT
Ryan O'Hearn Total Bases o0.5 goblin 60% HIT
Bryan Reynolds Total Bases o0.5 goblin 60% MISS
Pete Alonso Total Bases o0.5 goblin 60% HIT
Bryson Stott Total Bases o0.5 goblin 60% MISS
Xander Bogaerts Total Bases o0.5 goblin 60% MISS
CJ Abrams Total Bases o0.5 goblin 60% HIT
James Wood Total Bases o0.5 goblin 60% HIT
Carter Jensen Total Bases o0.5 goblin 60% HIT
Justin Crawford Total Bases o0.5 goblin 60% HIT
Seiya Suzuki Total Bases o0.5 goblin 59% MISS
Trea Turner Total Bases o0.5 goblin 59% HIT
Byron Buxton Total Bases o0.5 goblin 59% VOID — excluded from the record
Ernie Clement Total Bases o0.5 goblin 59% HIT
Ceddanne Rafaela Total Bases o0.5 goblin 58% HIT
Geraldo Perdomo Total Bases o0.5 goblin 58% MISS
Nolan Arenado Total Bases o0.5 goblin 58% MISS
Ezequiel Duran Total Bases o0.5 goblin 58% HIT
Anthony Seigler Total Bases o0.5 goblin 58% HIT
Jackson Merrill Total Bases o0.5 goblin 58% HIT
Nico Hoerner Total Bases o0.5 goblin 58% HIT
Brayan Rocchio Total Bases o0.5 goblin 58% MISS
Xavier Edwards Total Bases o0.5 goblin 58% HIT
Nick Loftin Total Bases o0.5 goblin 57% HIT
Nathan Lukes Total Bases o0.5 goblin 57% HIT
Michael Harris II Total Bases o0.5 goblin 57% HIT
Zack Gelof Total Bases o0.5 goblin 57% HIT
Cole Carrigg Total Bases o0.5 goblin 57% HIT
Riley Greene Total Bases o0.5 goblin 57% MISS
Jake McCarthy Total Bases o0.5 goblin 57% MISS
Chase DeLauter Total Bases o0.5 goblin 57% HIT
Isaac Paredes Total Bases o0.5 goblin 57% HIT
Kevin McGonigle Total Bases o0.5 goblin 57% HIT
Alec Bohm Total Bases o0.5 goblin 57% MISS
Alex Bregman Total Bases o0.5 goblin 57% HIT
Wilyer Abreu Total Bases o0.5 goblin 56% MISS
TJ Rumfield Total Bases o0.5 goblin 56% HIT
Daylen Lile Total Bases o0.5 goblin 56% MISS
Javier Sanoja Total Bases o0.5 goblin 56% HIT
Gunnar Henderson Total Bases o0.5 goblin 56% HIT
Willson Contreras Total Bases o0.5 goblin 56% HIT
Josh Bell Total Bases o0.5 goblin 56% HIT
Brooks Lee Total Bases o0.5 goblin 56% HIT
Curtis Mead Total Bases o0.5 goblin 56% HIT
Luis Arraez Total Bases o0.5 goblin 56% HIT
Sam Antonacci Total Bases o0.5 goblin 56% HIT
Jacob Wilson Total Bases o0.5 goblin 56% MISS
Lane Thomas Total Bases o0.5 goblin 56% HIT
Jung Hoo Lee Total Bases o0.5 goblin 56% MISS
Austin Martin Total Bases o0.5 goblin 56% HIT
Francisco Lindor Total Bases o0.5 goblin 55% MISS
Nick Kurtz Total Bases o0.5 goblin 55% MISS
Shea Langeliers Total Bases o0.5 goblin 55% HIT
Brandon Nimmo Total Bases o0.5 goblin 55% MISS
Michael Busch Total Bases o0.5 goblin 55% MISS
Liam Hicks Total Bases o0.5 goblin 55% HIT
Ben Rice Total Bases o0.5 goblin 55% HIT

What the predictions actually did

Predicted vs. empirical by probability band, clean window — the calibration we grade ourselves on.

Predicted bandnMean predictedEmpirical
0.55-0.60 2169 57.5% 64.5%
0.60-0.64 4447 62.2% 64.6%
0.64+ 3476 65.8% 69.4%