PITCHER BOARD — 2026-08-23

Tonight's Starting Pitchers

Updated 0s ago
Model Picks: 67.8% against a 57.7% break-even (4293–2043)
All published picks: 64.2% against the same bar (11603–6457)
Standard-priced lines: 61.7% vs the 57.7% bar (n=8276) · Reduced-payout (goblin) lines: 66.4% vs a ~70% bar (n=9770)
Model Picks are 7.7 points over the standard bar; roughly at the bar on reduced-payout lines.

We publish and grade every pick the model captures — hits and misses alike. 18,060 graded picks since 2026-05-27. Full ledger ↓

Payout tier known for 55% of graded picks; the rest are held to the standard 57.7% bar.

How our strikeout probabilities are graded → the calibration ledger

MODEL PICKS TODAY (3) Mitch Bratt o3.5 K · 71% Foster Griffin o4.5 K · 71% Jake Bennett o4.5 K · 65%
Pitcher K line (pick'em) Calibrated over Edge Context
Mitch Bratt matchup →
AZ vs CIN · 4:15 PM ET
 o3.5 Underdog 71% +13.8pp xIP 5.5 Lovullo averages 73 pitches before pulling Bratt (9 starts, 0 over 100); CIN 24.9% K-rate vs LHP Model Pick
Foster Griffin matchup →
CLE vs COL · 3:10 PM ET
 o4.5 Underdog 71% +12.1pp xIP 5.8 Model Pick
Jake Bennett matchup →
BOS vs SF · 3:15 PM ET
 o4.5 Underdog 65% +15.2pp xIP 5.8 Tracy averages 76 pitches before pulling Bennett (14 starts, 0 over 100); SF 26.7% K-rate vs LHP Model Pick
Nick Martinez matchup →
TB vs BAL · 1:35 PM ET
 o3.5 Underdog 59% +4.9pp xIP 5.7 Cash averages 80 pitches before pulling Martinez (27 starts, 1 over 100); BAL 25.1% K-rate vs RHP
Tyler Mahle matchup →
ATL vs MIL · 7:10 PM ET
 o4.5 Underdog 59% +1.7pp xIP 5.4
Tomoyuki Sugano matchup →
COL vs CLE · 3:10 PM ET
 o2.5 Underdog 57% +10.2pp xIP 5.3
Kyle Leahy matchup →
STL vs PHI · 1:35 PM ET
 o3.5 Underdog 56% +5.9pp xIP 5.0
Bryce Miller matchup →
SEA vs CHC · 4:10 PM ET
 o4.5 Underdog 55% -1.7pp xIP 5.3
Walker Buehler matchup →
SD vs MIN · 4:10 PM ET
 o3.5 Underdog 55% +2.2pp xIP 4.9
Andrew Abbott matchup →
CIN vs AZ · 4:15 PM ET
 o3.5 Underdog 53% +9.5pp xIP 5.6
Shane Drohan matchup →
MIL vs ATL · 7:10 PM ET
 o4.5 Underdog 53% +8.7pp xIP 5.3
Shota Imanaga matchup →
CHC vs SEA · 4:10 PM ET
 o5.5 Underdog 51% -1.5pp xIP 5.8 Counsell averages 87 pitches before pulling Imanaga (30 starts, 4 over 100); SEA 22.4% K-rate vs LHP
Bailey Ober matchup →
MIN vs SD · 4:10 PM ET
 o3.5 Underdog 50% -1.2pp xIP 5.4
José Soriano matchup →
TOR vs NYY · 1:35 PM ET
 o5.5 Underdog 50% +2.3pp xIP 5.5 Schneider averages 90 pitches before pulling Soriano (24 starts, 6 over 100); NYY 23.0% K-rate vs RHP
Janson Junk matchup →
MIA vs WSH · 1:40 PM ET
 o3.5 Underdog 49% +3.1pp xIP 5.3
Shane Baz matchup →
BAL vs TB · 1:35 PM ET
 o4.5 Underdog 45% +0.6pp xIP 5.6 Albernaz averages 93 pitches before pulling Baz (27 starts, 7 over 100); TB 18.3% K-rate vs RHP
Cristopher Sánchez matchup →
PHI vs STL · 1:35 PM ET
 o6.5 Underdog 45% -12.3pp xIP 6.3 Mattingly averages 94 pitches before pulling Sánchez (27 starts, 6 over 100); STL 19.7% K-rate vs LHP
Carlos Rodón matchup →
NYY vs TOR · 1:35 PM ET
 o5.5 Underdog 43% -0.2pp xIP 5.7
Cristian Javier matchup →
HOU vs ATH · 2:10 PM ET
 o4.5 Underdog 31% -14.7pp xIP 4.3 Espada averages 64 pitches before pulling Javier (11 starts, 0 over 100); ATH 21.0% K-rate vs RHP
Matt Wilkinson matchup →
SF vs BOS · 3:15 PM ET
 o2.5 Underdog 71% +23.3pp xIP 5.5 Limited data
Jackson Kent matchup →
WSH vs MIA · 1:40 PM ET
 o3.5 Underdog 71% +12.1pp xIP 5.5 Limited data
Cal Quantrill matchup →
TEX vs LAA · 2:35 PM ET
 o3.5 Underdog 60% +3.6pp xIP 4.6 Schumaker averages 72 pitches before pulling Quantrill (9 starts, 0 over 100); LAA 26.4% K-rate vs RHP Limited data
Lake Bachar matchup →
PIT vs LAD · 4:10 PM ET
 o1.5 Underdog 25% -35.2pp xIP 1.2 Limited data
Blake Snell matchup →
LAD vs PIT · 4:10 PM ET
 o8.5 Underdog 24% -23.4pp xIP 5.5 Limited data
Brady Basso matchup →
ATH vs HOU · 2:10 PM ET
 o1.5 Underdog 21% -24.7pp xIP 1.2 Limited data
Daniel Lynch IV matchup →
KC vs DET · 2:10 PM ET
 o2.5 Underdog 6% -49.8pp xIP 1.2 IV 5.0 K/9 in last 14 starts (6.8 season — missing fewer bats) Limited data
Nolan McLean
NYM vs CWS · 2:10 PM ET
 No K line yet — — RHP · 3.34 ERA
Sean Newcomb
CWS vs NYM · 2:10 PM ET
 No K line yet — — LHP · 2.44 ERA
Yusei Kikuchi
LAA vs TEX · 2:35 PM ET
 No K line yet — — LHP · 5.81 ERA

The full slate, not a picks list — most starters show no edge, and the board says so. Calibrated probabilities come from graded history, not the raw model.

THE LEDGER — LAST GRADED SLATE — 2026-08-21

Slate: 132–89 (60% against a 57.7% break-even; pushes and voids excluded).
Season since 2026-05-27: Model Picks 67.8% · all published 64.2% — both against the 57.7% break-even (tier bars shown above).

PickMarket · lineCaptured probResult
Randy Vásquez Strikeouts o2.5 61% HIT
Hunter Dobbins Strikeouts o3.5 60% MISS
MacKenzie Gore Strikeouts o6.5 59% HIT
Nick Lodolo Strikeouts o3.5 59% MISS
Freddy Peralta Strikeouts o5.5 56% HIT
Jordan Lawlar Hits o0.5 66% HIT
Trevor Larnach Hits o0.5 66% MISS
Carlos Cortes Hits o0.5 66% HIT
Jose Fernandez Hits o0.5 66% HIT
Keibert Ruiz Hits o0.5 66% HIT
Henry Bolte Hits o0.5 66% MISS
Patrick Bailey Hits o0.5 66% HIT
Nolan Arenado Hits o0.5 66% HIT
Mickey Moniak Hits o0.5 66% MISS
Pete Alonso Hits o0.5 66% HIT
Willi Castro Hits o0.5 66% HIT
Jung Hoo Lee Hits o0.5 66% MISS
Luke Keaschall Hits o0.5 66% HIT
Kyle Karros Hits o0.5 66% HIT
Chandler Simpson Hits o0.5 66% HIT
Corbin Carroll Hits o0.5 66% HIT
Gabriel Moreno Hits o0.5 66% HIT
TJ Rumfield Hits o0.5 66% MISS
Nathaniel Lowe Hits o0.5 66% HIT
Yandy Díaz Hits o0.5 66% MISS
Cole Carrigg Hits o0.5 66% HIT
Geraldo Perdomo Hits o0.5 65% HIT
Chase Meidroth Hits o0.5 65% MISS
Ryan Jeffers Hits o0.5 65% MISS
Gleyber Torres Hits o0.5 65% MISS
Brandon Marsh Hits o0.5 65% HIT
Byron Buxton Hits o0.5 65% MISS
Max Clark Hits o0.5 65% MISS
Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits o0.5 65% HIT
Zack Gelof Hits o0.5 65% MISS
Kevin McGonigle Hits o0.5 65% HIT
Jeff McNeil Hits o0.5 65% HIT
Dylan Beavers Hits o0.5 65% HIT
Otto Lopez Hits o0.5 65% HIT
Andrew Vaughn Hits o0.5 65% HIT
Josh Bell Hits o0.5 65% MISS
Ty France Hits o0.5 65% HIT
Tim Tawa Hits o0.5 65% HIT
Samuel Basallo Hits o0.5 65% MISS
Junior Caminero Hits o0.5 65% HIT
Randy Arozarena Hits o0.5 65% HIT
Willson Contreras Hits o0.5 65% HIT
Brendan Donovan Hits o0.5 65% HIT
Travis Bazzana Hits o0.5 64% HIT
Justin Crawford Hits o0.5 64% MISS
Bryce Harper Hits o0.5 64% MISS
Gunnar Henderson Hits o0.5 64% HIT
Miguel Vargas Hits o0.5 64% HIT
Nick Sogard Hits o0.5 64% HIT
Jordan Walker Hits o0.5 64% HIT
Brooks Lee Hits o0.5 64% MISS
Osleivis Basabe Hits o0.5 64% MISS
Abimelec Ortiz Hits o0.5 64% MISS
Xavier Edwards Hits o0.5 64% MISS
Josh Naylor Hits o0.5 64% HIT
Tyler O'Neill Hits o0.5 64% MISS
Royce Lewis Hits o0.5 64% MISS
Dominic Canzone Hits o0.5 64% MISS
Bryson Stott Hits o0.5 64% MISS
Freddie Freeman Hits o0.5 64% MISS
Elly De La Cruz Hits o0.5 64% MISS
Jacob Young Hits o0.5 64% MISS
Dillon Dingler Hits o0.5 64% MISS
Trea Turner Hits o0.5 64% MISS
Bryce Eldridge Hits o0.5 64% HIT
Austin Hays Hits o0.5 64% HIT
Tommy Edman Hits o0.5 64% HIT
Pete Crow-Armstrong Hits o0.5 64% HIT
Kyle Schwarber Hits o0.5 64% MISS
Javier Báez Hits o0.5 64% HIT
Julio Rodríguez Hits o0.5 64% HIT
Carson Benge Hits o0.5 63% HIT
Isaac Paredes Hits o0.5 63% HIT
Andruw Monasterio Hits o0.5 63% MISS
Rafael Devers Hits o0.5 63% HIT
Cole Young Hits o0.5 63% HIT
Daylen Lile Hits o0.5 63% HIT
Tommy White Hits o0.5 63% MISS
Wilyer Abreu Hits o0.5 63% HIT
Sal Stewart Hits o0.5 63% HIT
Seiya Suzuki Hits o0.5 63% HIT
Denzer Guzman Hits o0.5 63% HIT
Carson Kelly Hits o0.5 63% HIT
Ben Rice Hits o0.5 63% MISS
Ryan Waldschmidt Hits o0.5 63% HIT
Munetaka Murakami Hits o0.5 63% MISS
Jackson Chourio Hits o0.5 63% HIT
Andy Pages Hits o0.5 63% MISS
Heliot Ramos Hits o0.5 63% HIT
Kody Clemens Hits o0.5 63% HIT
Coby Mayo Hits o0.5 63% MISS
Vaughn Grissom Hits o0.5 63% MISS
George Lombard Jr. Hits o0.5 63% HIT
Caleb Durbin Hits o0.5 63% HIT
Jonah Heim Hits o0.5 63% MISS
Brady House Hits o0.5 63% HIT
Luis Rengifo Hits o0.5 63% HIT
Yainer Diaz Hits o0.5 63% HIT
Zach Neto Hits o0.5 63% HIT
Jackson Holliday Hits o0.5 63% HIT
Nico Hoerner Hits o0.5 63% HIT
Willy Adames Hits o0.5 63% MISS
Lawrence Butler Hits o0.5 63% MISS
Blaze Jordan Hits o0.5 63% HIT
Brandon Nimmo Hits o0.5 63% MISS
Bo Bichette Hits o0.5 63% HIT
Liam Hicks Hits o0.5 63% MISS
Paul Goldschmidt Hits o0.5 63% HIT
Jared Young Hits o0.5 63% HIT
Alec Bohm Hits o0.5 63% HIT
Nick Gonzales Hits o0.5 63% HIT
Brice Turang Hits o0.5 63% HIT
Colson Montgomery Hits o0.5 63% HIT
José Caballero Hits o0.5 63% MISS
Ezequiel Tovar Hits o0.5 63% MISS
William Contreras Hits o0.5 63% HIT
Adley Rutschman Hits o0.5 62% HIT
Bobby Witt Jr. Hits o0.5 62% HIT
Jackson Merrill Hits o0.5 62% MISS
JJ Wetherholt Hits o0.5 62% MISS
Jac Caglianone Hits o0.5 62% MISS
Ernie Clement Hits o0.5 62% HIT
Alejandro Kirk Hits o0.5 62% HIT
Jake Mangum Hits o0.5 62% HIT
Michael Massey Hits o0.5 62% HIT
Jose Altuve Hits o0.5 62% HIT
Jake Bauers Hits o0.5 62% MISS
Ezequiel Duran Hits o0.5 62% HIT
Iván Herrera Hits o0.5 62% HIT
Griffin Conine Hits o0.5 62% MISS
Wyatt Langford Hits o0.5 62% HIT
A.J. Ewing Hits o0.5 62% MISS
Mike Trout Hits o0.5 62% MISS
Spencer Torkelson Hits o0.5 62% MISS
Alex Bregman Hits o0.5 62% HIT
Jordan Beck Hits o0.5 62% HIT
Spencer Jones Hits o0.5 62% HIT
Xander Bogaerts Hits o0.5 62% MISS
Michael Busch Hits o0.5 62% HIT
Max Muncy Hits o0.5 62% HIT
Michael Harris II Hits o0.5 62% HIT
Jake Burger Hits o0.5 61% MISS
Josh Lowe Hits o0.5 61% MISS
Teoscar Hernández Hits o0.5 61% MISS
Nathan Lukes Hits o0.5 61% MISS
Jesús Sánchez Hits o0.5 61% HIT
Trent Grisham Hits o0.5 61% MISS
Leody Taveras Hits o0.5 61% HIT
Manny Machado Hits o0.5 61% HIT
Joe Mack Hits o0.5 61% MISS
Moisés Ballesteros Hits o0.5 61% MISS
Dylan Crews Hits o0.5 61% HIT
Christian Walker Hits o0.5 61% HIT
Mookie Betts Hits o0.5 61% HIT
J.T. Realmuto Hits o0.5 61% HIT
Daulton Varsho Hits o0.5 61% HIT
Eugenio Suárez Hits o0.5 61% MISS
Francisco Lindor Hits o0.5 60% MISS
Charles McAdoo Hits o0.5 60% MISS
Brett Bateman Hits o0.5 60% HIT
Mauricio Dubón Hits o0.5 60% HIT
Oneil Cruz Hits o0.5 60% HIT
Kyle Tucker Hits o0.5 60% MISS
Bryan Reynolds Hits o0.5 59% HIT
Cam Smith Hits o0.5 59% MISS
Heriberto Hernández Hits o0.5 58% MISS
Drake Baldwin Hits o0.5 58% MISS
Spencer Horwitz Hits o0.5 58% MISS
Matt McLain Hits o0.5 58% MISS
Matt Olson Hits o0.5 58% HIT
Owen Caissie Hits o0.5 57% HIT
Luis Robert Jr. Hits o0.5 57% HIT
Ian Happ Hits o0.5 57% HIT
Ozzie Albies Hits o0.5 57% MISS
Vinnie Pasquantino Hits o0.5 57% HIT
Brandon Valenzuela Hits o0.5 56% HIT
Mickey Gasper Hits o0.5 56% MISS
Brett Baty Hits o0.5 55% HIT
Brandon Lowe Hits o0.5 55% HIT
Kyle Isbel Hits o0.5 55% HIT
Taylor Walls Hits o0.5 55% MISS
Charles McAdoo Total Bases o0.5 62% MISS
George Lombard Jr. Total Bases o0.5 62% HIT
Brett Bateman Total Bases o0.5 62% HIT
Jose Fernandez Total Bases o0.5 62% HIT
Nolan Arenado Total Bases o0.5 62% HIT
Chandler Simpson Total Bases o0.5 62% HIT
Jordan Lawlar Total Bases o0.5 62% HIT
Carlos Cortes Total Bases o0.5 62% HIT
Trevor Larnach Total Bases o0.5 62% MISS
Keibert Ruiz Total Bases o0.5 61% HIT
Geraldo Perdomo Total Bases o0.5 61% HIT
Zack Gelof Total Bases o0.5 60% MISS
Dylan Beavers Total Bases o0.5 60% HIT
Andrew Vaughn Total Bases o0.5 60% HIT
Josh Bell Total Bases o0.5 60% MISS
Tim Tawa Total Bases o0.5 60% HIT
Brendan Donovan Total Bases o0.5 58% HIT
Justin Crawford Total Bases o0.5 58% MISS
Brooks Lee Total Bases o0.5 57% MISS
Osleivis Basabe Total Bases o0.5 57% MISS
Josh Naylor Total Bases o0.5 57% HIT
Tyler O'Neill Total Bases o0.5 57% MISS
Royce Lewis Total Bases o0.5 57% MISS
Dominic Canzone Total Bases o0.5 57% MISS
Jonny DeLuca Total Bases o0.5 57% HIT
Bryson Stott Total Bases o0.5 57% MISS
Jacob Young Total Bases o0.5 56% MISS
Bryce Eldridge Total Bases o0.5 56% HIT
Austin Hays Total Bases o0.5 56% HIT
Tommy Edman Total Bases o0.5 56% HIT
Javier Báez Total Bases o0.5 56% HIT
Andruw Monasterio Total Bases o0.5 55% MISS
Coby Mayo Total Bases o0.5 55% MISS
Cole Young Total Bases o0.5 55% HIT
Tommy White Total Bases o0.5 55% MISS

What the predictions actually did

Predicted vs. empirical by probability band, clean window — the calibration we grade ourselves on.

Predicted bandnMean predictedEmpirical
0.55-0.60 3560 57.5% 62.1%
0.60-0.64 8009 62.3% 62.8%
0.64+ 6336 65.6% 67.8%