AL Central
Standings
| # | Team | W | L | PCT | GB | RD | L10 | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleveland Guardians | 85 | 77 | .525 | - | +11 | 8-2 | L1 |
| 2 | Chicago White Sox | 84 | 78 | .519 | 1.0 | +56 | 7-3 | W1 |
| 3 | Minnesota Twins | 77 | 85 | .475 | 8.0 | -58 | 6-4 | W1 |
| 4 | Detroit Tigers | 76 | 86 | .469 | 9.0 | +71 | 4-6 | L1 |
| 5 | Kansas City Royals | 69 | 93 | .426 | 16.0 | -120 | 2-8 | W1 |
| # | Team | W* | L* | ±W | Δ Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleveland Guardians | 85 | 77 | 0 | — |
| 2 | Chicago White Sox | 85 | 77 | +1 | — |
| 3 | Minnesota Twins | 77 | 85 | 0 | — |
| 4 | Detroit Tigers | 77 | 85 | +1 | — |
| 5 | Kansas City Royals | 69 | 93 | 0 | — |
Optimal projects each team's remaining games as if every lineup was optimizer-recommended (snapshot, not full season replay). See methodology below.
Manager decisions across the division
All managers →| Team | Manager | Lineup | Bunts | IBBs | Relievers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigers | A.J. Hinch 153 GP | 5.04 R · 0.03 R/G | 1.13 R · 0.01 R/G | 1.44 R · 0.01 R/G | 18.72 R · 0.12 R/G |
| Guardians | Stephen Vogt 157 GP | 3.13 R · 0.02 R/G | 3.20 R · 0.02 R/G | 1.80 R · 0.01 R/G | 28.95 R · 0.18 R/G |
| White Sox | Will Venable 159 GP | 6.12 R · 0.04 R/G | 3.35 R · 0.02 R/G | 4.00 R · 0.03 R/G | 25.76 R · 0.16 R/G |
| Twins | Derek Shelton 154 GP | 3.38 R · 0.02 R/G | 1.17 R · 0.01 R/G | 3.81 R · 0.02 R/G | 35.89 R · 0.23 R/G |
| Royals | Matt Quatraro 157 GP | 4.65 R · 0.03 R/G | 3.30 R · 0.02 R/G | 2.47 R · 0.02 R/G | 51.47 R · 0.33 R/G |
All costs are tenure-bounded, season to date, and shown as a season total plus a per-game rate (R/G). Lower is better. The categories aren't summed into a total — lineup, bunts and IBBs cover every game while reliever selection covers high-leverage spots only (7th inning+, 1–3 run game), so a single composite would mix scopes. The Relievers leaderboard shows a rolling 30-day window. Fired-manager teams get a sub-row showing the predecessor's own tenure separately.
Run differential
Recent form
RunsLeft insights · AL Central
Quatraro now at 10.4R lost to lineup decisions
Matt Quatraro (KC) has cost 10.4 runs across lineup, bunt, and IBB decisions this season — past the 10R watermark. Lineup decisions account for 4.7R, the largest single category.
Manager detail →Munetaka Murakami's OPS swings 2.250 between lineup spots
Munetaka Murakami (CWS) has hit in 7 different lineup spots over 115 games this season. OPS by spot: 2nd .751 (79 g), 3rd .705 (17 g), 4th .906 (13 g), 5th .875 (2 g), 6th 2.750 (1 g), 7th .500 (1 g), 8th .500 (2 g).
See on team page →Brett Callahan's OPS swings 2.000 between lineup spots
Brett Callahan (DET) has hit in 7 different lineup spots over 23 games this season. OPS by spot: 1st .375 (4 g), 3rd .000 (2 g), 5th .333 (4 g), 6th .472 (6 g), 7th .778 (3 g), 8th .250 (3 g), 9th 2.000 (1 g).
See on team page →John Peck's OPS swings .625 between lineup spots
John Peck (DET) has hit in 5 different lineup spots over 21 games this season. OPS by spot: 2nd — (2 g), 3rd — (1 g), 7th .959 (2 g), 8th .750 (2 g), 9th .333 (14 g).
See on team page →Walker Jenkins's OPS swings .500 between lineup spots
Walker Jenkins (MIN) has hit in 6 different lineup spots over 21 games this season. OPS by spot: 1st .400 (1 g), 4th — (1 g), 5th .000 (1 g), 6th .500 (1 g), 8th .000 (2 g), 9th .469 (15 g).
See on team page →Luke Keaschall's OPS swings .567 between lineup spots
Luke Keaschall (MIN) has hit in 9 different lineup spots over 181 games this season. OPS by spot: 1st .789 (29 g), 2nd .517 (3 g), 3rd .603 (35 g), 4th .698 (21 g), 5th .903 (12 g), 6th .449 (25 g), 7th .784 (22 g), 8th .842 (23 g), 9th 1.…
See on team page →Keep reading
Methodology
Counterfactual standings project each team's remaining
games as if every lineup card had been the optimizer's recommendation.
The math is a snapshot: winsFlip = round(seasonLineupCost / 10),
added to the current win column and subtracted from the loss column.
Manager decision costs come from the same per-game decision audit used on /managers. Insights are emitted by templates under /methodology and refreshed hourly or nightly depending on the template tier.