Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 TJ Friedl CF
- 2 Matt McLain 2B
- 3 Elly De La Cruz SS
- 4 Sal Stewart 1B
- 5 Nathaniel Lowe DH
- 6 Spencer Steer RF
- 7 JJ Bleday LF
- 8 Tyler Stephenson C
- 9 Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B
- 1 Oneil Cruz CF
- 2 Brandon Lowe 2B
- 3 Bryan Reynolds LF
- 4 Ryan O'Hearn RF
- 5 Nick Gonzales 3B
- 6 Marcell Ozuna DH
- 7 Spencer Horwitz 1B
- 8 Konnor Griffin SS
- 9 Henry Davis C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| PIT | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / C- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 0-3 with CIN listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.10 vs actual lineup 3.17
- Player execution −2.17 R/G Players fell 2.17 short of the lineup's 3.17 projection (scored 1)
- Game variance −2.10 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
McLain 0-for-4 batting 2nd
- Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.79 vs actual lineup 4.82
- Player execution +4.18 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.82 projection by 4.18 (scored 9)
- Game variance +4.21 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Davis HR from the 9-hole
Optimal lineups projected 3.1 – 4.8 — actual was 1 – 9.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.