Starting Pitcher · Pittsburgh Pirates
Mitch Keller
RHP · Throws Right · Age 30Starter
Model projection · strikeout prop
56.6%
56.6% against a 57.7% break-even. Over 3.5 Ks, tonight vs. ATL. Confidence medium.
Drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2014 (round 2). He made his MLB debut on May 27, 2019.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)
Tonight's Matchup
vs. Braves · pregame
Projected xwOBA vs. Braves current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .318
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1
MO
Matt Olson
LHB
.338
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Olson
- Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 590 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (19% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (4% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
2
OA
Ozzie Albies
SH
.295
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ozzie Albies
- Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 426 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (7% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (4% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
3
AR
Austin Riley
RHB
.320
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Riley
- Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (19% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (7% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (4% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
4
MD
Mauricio Dubón
RHB
.303
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mauricio Dubón
- Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (19% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (7% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (4% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
5
MH
Michael Harris II
LHB
.334
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Harris II
- Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (7% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (4% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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6
DB
Drake Baldwin
LHB
.347
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drake Baldwin
- Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (19% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (7% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (4% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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7
MY
Mike Yastrzemski
LHB
.312
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mike Yastrzemski
- Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 483 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (19% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (7% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (4% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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8
DS
Dominic Smith
LHB
.312
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Smith
- Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (19% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (7% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (4% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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9
JM
Jorge Mateo
RHB
.302
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jorge Mateo
- Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (19% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (7% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (4% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Four-Seam Fastball
FF · lead pitch
33% of pitches · .359 xwOBA allowed · 556 BIP · where it goes, what it costs
Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) has allowed .359 xwOBA over 556 balls in play — his most-used pitch.
Arsenal
usage × whiff, ranked
7 pitch types · 7,469-pitch sample · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1
Four-Seam Fastball FF
33% usage · 15% whiff · .359 xwOBA · 93.4 mph
Sinker SI
19% usage · 12% whiff · .352 xwOBA · 92.3 mph
Sweeper ST
18% usage · 25% whiff · .283 xwOBA · 82.1 mph
Slider SL
11% usage · 24% whiff · .335 xwOBA · 87.5 mph
Curveball CU
8% usage · 31% whiff · .313 xwOBA · 77.9 mph
Changeup CH
7% usage · 18% whiff · .358 xwOBA · 88.8 mph
Cutter FC
4% usage · 18% whiff · .353 xwOBA · 89.9 mph
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
Four-Seam FastballSinkerSweeper
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1
| Split | K% | xwOBA | Sample |
|---|
| vs. LHB | 18.5 |
.366 |
1,043 |
| vs. RHB | 21 |
.298 |
901 |
Live · client-hydrated
Market lines
current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day
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Live · client-hydrated
DFS picks
today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly
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