Detroit Tigers vs Cincinnati Reds
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Jahmai Jones RF
- 2 Gleyber Torres DH
- 3 Kevin McGonigle 3B
- 4 Matt Vierling CF
- 5 Dillon Dingler C
- 6 Riley Greene LF
- 7 Spencer Torkelson 1B
- 8 Hao-Yu Lee 2B
- 9 Javier Báez SS
- 1 Dane Myers CF
- 2 Matt McLain 2B
- 3 Elly De La Cruz SS
- 4 Sal Stewart 1B
- 5 Spencer Steer LF
- 6 Nathaniel Lowe DH
- 7 Tyler Stephenson C
- 8 Rece Hinds RF
- 9 Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-2 with DET listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.13 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.94 vs actual lineup 4.80
- Player execution +3.20 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.80 projection by 3.20 (scored 8)
- Game variance +3.06 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Torkelson HR from the 7-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.49 vs actual lineup 3.45
- Player execution +5.55 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.45 projection by 5.55 (scored 9)
- Game variance +5.51 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Stewart 0-for-4 batting 4th
Optimal lineups projected 4.9 – 3.5 — actual was 8 – 9.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.