RunsLeft › Pitchers › Andrew Abbott
Starting Pitcher · Cincinnati Reds

Andrew Abbott

LHP · Throws Left · Age 27Starter
Model projection · strikeout prop
53.5%
53.5% against a 57.7% break-even. Over 3.5 Ks, tonight vs. AZ. Confidence medium.
ERA
4.07
FIP
–
IP
139.1
W-L
6-8
WHIP
1.40
K%
17.9
BB%
10.9
GB%
–
K/9
7.0
HR/9
1.2
Drafted by the Cincinnati Reds in 2021 (round 2). He made his MLB debut on June 5, 2023.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)

Tonight's Matchup

vs. Diamondbacks · pregame

Projected xwOBA vs. Diamondbacks current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .316

  1. 1 CC Corbin Carroll LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Corbin Carroll
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 611 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 GP Geraldo Perdomo SH .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Geraldo Perdomo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 563 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NA Nolan Arenado RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Arenado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 IV Ildemaro Vargas SH .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ildemaro Vargas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GM Gabriel Moreno RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gabriel Moreno
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TT Tim Tawa RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tim Tawa
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 RW Ryan Waldschmidt RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Waldschmidt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LN Lars Nootbaar LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lars Nootbaar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 388 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JF Jose Fernandez RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Fernandez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
▸ Full season matchup breakdown → · game preview

Four-Seam Fastball

FF · lead pitch

47% of pitches · .356 xwOBA allowed · 929 BIP · where it goes, what it costs

Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
0%2%4%4%3%1%4%8%7%5%3%8%14%14%7%1%2%2%2%1%1%2%3%2%1%
Rare 0% · Common 10% · Very common 20%+
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
.013.176.220.233.296.247.300.372.290.274.426.366.351.331.385.648.176.409.418.587.707.654.635.647.693
Cold .200 · Avg .310 · Hot .500+
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
.000.003.008.009.008.003.011.028.020.015.013.030.050.045.027.005.004.010.009.006.006.012.017.014.005
Low risk · Average · High-risk zone
Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) has allowed .356 xwOBA over 929 balls in play — his most-used pitch.

Arsenal

usage × whiff, ranked

5 pitch types · 7,498-pitch sample · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1

Four-Seam Fastball FF
47% usage · 14% whiff · .356 xwOBA · 92.5 mph
Sweeper ST
19% usage · 29% whiff · .221 xwOBA · 82.1 mph
Changeup CH
19% usage · 29% whiff · .289 xwOBA · 86.1 mph
Curveball CU
12% usage · 18% whiff · .296 xwOBA · 79.7 mph
Cutter FC
3% usage · 26% whiff · .383 xwOBA · 89.0 mph
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
01020304050607/17/77/127/208/18/68/138/18
Four-Seam FastballSweeperChangeup
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1
SplitK%xwOBASample
vs. LHB24.5 .264 459
vs. RHB18 .329 1,367
Live · client-hydrated

Market lines

current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day

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Live · client-hydrated

DFS picks

today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly

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