St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
- 2 Iván Herrera DH
- 3 Nolan Gorman 3B
- 4 Ramón Urías 1B
- 5 José Fermín LF
- 6 Nathan Church RF
- 7 Thomas Saggese SS
- 8 Pedro Pagés C
- 9 Victor Scott II CF
- 1 Jakob Marsee CF
- 2 Xavier Edwards DH
- 3 Otto Lopez SS
- 4 Liam Hicks 1B
- 5 Agustín Ramírez C
- 6 Heriberto Hernández LF
- 7 Owen Caissie RF
- 8 Leo Jiménez 2B
- 9 Javier Sanoja 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| MIA | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / C+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-2 with STL listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.19 vs actual lineup 3.14
- Player execution −2.14 R/G Players fell 2.14 short of the lineup's 3.14 projection (scored 1)
- Game variance −2.19 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Wetherholt 0-for-4 batting 1st
- Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.86 vs actual lineup 4.82
- Player execution −0.82 R/G Players fell 0.82 short of the lineup's 4.82 projection (scored 4)
- Game variance −0.86 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Edwards 0-for-5 batting 2nd
Optimal lineups projected 3.2 – 4.9 — actual was 1 – 4.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.