ARCHIVE April 22, 2026
April 22, 2026 · NL East

St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins

April 22, 2026loanDepot parkRoof Closed 72°F · 0 mph, None
AWAY
St. Louis Cardinals
14-10
1
vs
HOME
Miami Marlins
12-13
4

Starting pitchers

AWAY · STL
Kyle Leahy
Kyle Leahy
IP 5
HOME · MIA
Janson Junk
Janson Junk
IP 5

Lineups

AWAY · STL
  1. 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
  2. 2 Iván Herrera DH
  3. 3 Nolan Gorman 3B
  4. 4 Ramón Urías 1B
  5. 5 José Fermín LF
  6. 6 Nathan Church RF
  7. 7 Thomas Saggese SS
  8. 8 Pedro Pagés C
  9. 9 Victor Scott II CF
HOME · MIA
  1. 1 Jakob Marsee CF
  2. 2 Xavier Edwards DH
  3. 3 Otto Lopez SS
  4. 4 Liam Hicks 1B
  5. 5 Agustín Ramírez C
  6. 6 Heriberto Hernández LF
  7. 7 Owen Caissie RF
  8. 8 Leo Jiménez 2B
  9. 9 Javier Sanoja 3B

Box score

  123456789 R
STL 000000001 1
MIA 020110000 4

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B- / C+ entering this matchup.

AWAY · STL
Oliver Marmol
B- Lineup 1.2 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 0.3 R
HOME · MIA
Clayton McCullough
C+ Lineup 1.4 R Bunts 0.4 R IBBs 0.6 R

Recent form

AWAY · STL
7-2 W1 +13 run diff
WL?WLWWWWW
HOME · MIA
4-6 L1 -6 run diff
LWLLLLWLWW

Season series: 1-2 with STL listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · St. Louis Cardinals
  • Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.19 vs actual lineup 3.14
  • Player execution −2.14 R/G Players fell 2.14 short of the lineup's 3.14 projection (scored 1)
  • Game variance −2.19 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Wetherholt 0-for-4 batting 1st

HOME · Miami Marlins
  • Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.86 vs actual lineup 4.82
  • Player execution −0.82 R/G Players fell 0.82 short of the lineup's 4.82 projection (scored 4)
  • Game variance −0.86 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Edwards 0-for-5 batting 2nd

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.2 – 4.9 — actual was 1 – 4.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.