RunsLeft › Pitchers › Lake Bachar
Pitcher · Miami Marlins

Lake Bachar

RHP · Throws Right · Age 31Swingman
Model projection · strikeout prop
24.5%
24.5% against a 57.7% break-even. Over 1.5 Ks, tonight vs. LAD. Confidence low.
ERA
3.75
FIP
–
IP
69.2
W-L
1-2
WHIP
1.11
K%
25.4
BB%
9.4
GB%
–
K/9
9.4
HR/9
1.6
Drafted by the San Diego Padres in 2016 (round 5), he was claimed off waivers by the Miami Marlins from the San Diego Padres in September 2024. He made his MLB debut on September 8, 2024.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)

Tonight's Matchup

vs. Dodgers · pregame

Projected xwOBA vs. Dodgers current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .317

  1. 1 FF Freddie Freeman LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddie Freeman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 593 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 303 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 KT Kyle Tucker LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Tucker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Max Muncy LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Max Muncy
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .414 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 MB Mookie Betts RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mookie Betts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 TH Teoscar Hernández RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Teoscar Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 TE Tommy Edman SH .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tommy Edman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 MR Miguel Rojas RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Rojas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 HF Hunter Feduccia LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hunter Feduccia
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AC Alex Call RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Call
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
▸ Full season matchup breakdown → · game preview

Four-Seam Fastball

FF · lead pitch

33% of pitches · .353 xwOBA allowed · 216 BIP · where it goes, what it costs

Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
5%6%4%2%0%6%8%12%6%2%4%9%15%9%4%1%1%1%2%1%0%1%1%2%1%
Rare 0% · Common 10% · Very common 20%+
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
.734.359.251.536–.333.297.284.232.000.266.572.368.243.348–.000.000.405.595–.000.000.191.689
Cold .200 · Avg .310 · Hot .500+
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
.037.020.010.012–.019.023.033.013.000.012.049.056.021.015–.000.000.006.007–.000.000.003.005
Low risk · Average · High-risk zone
Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) has allowed .353 xwOBA over 216 balls in play — his most-used pitch.

Arsenal

usage × whiff, ranked

6 pitch types · 2,399-pitch sample · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1

Four-Seam Fastball FF
33% usage · 19% whiff · .353 xwOBA · 94.6 mph
Slider SL
23% usage · 38% whiff · .275 xwOBA · 89.9 mph
Sweeper ST
22% usage · 31% whiff · .315 xwOBA · 86.4 mph
Splitter FS
11% usage · 33% whiff · .229 xwOBA · 84.1 mph
Curveball CU
9% usage · 41% whiff · .163 xwOBA · 86.2 mph
Sinker SI
2% usage · 14% whiff · .311 xwOBA · 93.1 mph
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
0102030405060707/177/207/308/18/58/88/168/21
Four-Seam FastballSliderSweeper
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1
SplitK%xwOBASample
vs. LHB26.7 .290 304
vs. RHB26.7 .307 285
Live · client-hydrated

Market lines

current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day

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Live · client-hydrated

DFS picks

today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly

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