RunsLeft › Pitchers › Janson Junk
Starting Pitcher · Miami Marlins

Janson Junk

RHP · Throws Right · Age 30Starter
Model projection · strikeout prop
49.3%
49.3% against a 57.7% break-even. Over 3.5 Ks, tonight vs. WSH. Confidence medium.
ERA
4.37
FIP
–
IP
92.2
W-L
6-8
WHIP
1.36
K%
16.7
BB%
6.6
GB%
–
K/9
6.4
HR/9
1.2
Drafted by the New York Yankees in 2017 (round 22), he was signed by the Miami Marlins in free agency in February 2025. He made his MLB debut on September 5, 2021.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)

Tonight's Matchup

vs. Nationals · pregame

Projected xwOBA vs. Nationals current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .303

  1. 1 DL Daylen Lile LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daylen Lile
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CA CJ Abrams LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. CJ Abrams
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 NN Nasim Nuñez SH .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nasim Nuñez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JY Jacob Young RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jacob Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 333 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 DC Dylan Crews RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Crews
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 KR Keibert Ruiz SH .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Keibert Ruiz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 BH Brady House RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brady House
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JV Jorbit Vivas LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jorbit Vivas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JT José Tena LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Tena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
▸ Full season matchup breakdown → · game preview

Four-Seam Fastball

FF · lead pitch

37% of pitches · .334 xwOBA allowed · 313 BIP · where it goes, what it costs

Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
3%4%4%4%1%2%8%11%6%3%3%7%14%13%5%0%1%2%2%1%0%1%2%2%1%
Rare 0% · Common 10% · Very common 20%+
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
.706.241.331.326–.283.258.362.372.226.319.192.347.332.457–.274.162.145.404––.841.288.696
Cold .200 · Avg .310 · Hot .500+
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
.018.010.012.012–.006.020.038.021.006.010.014.049.044.025–.003.003.003.004––.019.006.008
Low risk · Average · High-risk zone
Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) has allowed .334 xwOBA over 313 balls in play — his most-used pitch.

Arsenal

usage × whiff, ranked

6 pitch types · 3,226-pitch sample · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1

Four-Seam Fastball FF
37% usage · 11% whiff · .334 xwOBA · 94.0 mph
Slider SL
24% usage · 17% whiff · .340 xwOBA · 86.3 mph
Sweeper ST
14% usage · 17% whiff · .286 xwOBA · 80.2 mph
Changeup CH
14% usage · 21% whiff · .295 xwOBA · 87.4 mph
Curveball CU
10% usage · 15% whiff · .358 xwOBA · 80.9 mph
Sinker SI
2% usage · 4% whiff · .348 xwOBA · 93.7 mph
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
010203040505/155/205/257/97/207/318/68/17
Four-Seam FastballSliderSweeper
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1
SplitK%xwOBASample
vs. LHB16 .349 476
vs. RHB17.3 .296 367
Live · client-hydrated

Market lines

current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day

Live lines load in your browser.
Live · client-hydrated

DFS picks

today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly

Today’s picks load in your browser.