RunsLeft › Pitchers › Janson Junk
Starting Pitcher · Miami Marlins

Janson Junk

RHP · Throws Right · Age 30Starter
Model projection · strikeout prop
No graded line yet for tonight's start vs. Mariners. The projection appears when the model has a line to price.
ERA
4.80
FIP
–
IP
60.0
W-L
3-5
WHIP
1.30
K%
16.9
BB%
5.1
GB%
–
K/9
6.5
HR/9
1.2
Drafted by the New York Yankees in 2017 (round 22), he was signed by the Miami Marlins in free agency in February 2025. He made his MLB debut on September 5, 2021.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)

Tonight's Matchup

vs. Mariners · pregame

Projected xwOBA vs. Mariners current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .318

  1. 1 JN Josh Naylor LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 473 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CY Cole Young LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 517 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 491 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CR Cal Raleigh SH .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 562 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 LR Luke Raley LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Raley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .361
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .401 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 CE Colt Emerson LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Emerson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MG Mitch Garver RHB .279
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mitch Garver
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
▸ Full season matchup breakdown → · game preview

Four-Seam Fastball

FF · lead pitch

36% of pitches · .324 xwOBA allowed · 276 BIP · where it goes, what it costs

Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
2%4%4%4%1%2%7%10%6%3%4%8%15%13%4%0%1%2%2%1%0%1%3%2%1%
Rare 0% · Common 10% · Very common 20%+
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
.706.241.426.326–.075.255.351.372.226.247.208.359.320.402–.274.162.000.404––.905.393.691
Cold .200 · Avg .310 · Hot .500+
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
.016.010.015.013–.002.018.037.022.007.009.016.052.042.018–.003.003.000.003––.023.009.008
Low risk · Average · High-risk zone
Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) has allowed .324 xwOBA over 276 balls in play — his most-used pitch.

Arsenal

usage × whiff, ranked

6 pitch types · 2,852-pitch sample · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1

Four-Seam Fastball FF
36% usage · 12% whiff · .324 xwOBA · 94.2 mph
Slider SL
26% usage · 18% whiff · .341 xwOBA · 86.3 mph
Sweeper ST
14% usage · 17% whiff · .259 xwOBA · 80.2 mph
Changeup CH
13% usage · 24% whiff · .302 xwOBA · 87.3 mph
Curveball CU
10% usage · 17% whiff · .361 xwOBA · 80.8 mph
Sinker SI
1% usage · 1% whiff · .351 xwOBA · 93.6 mph
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
010203040504/174/224/285/45/95/155/205/25
Four-Seam FastballSliderSweeper
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1
SplitK%xwOBASample
vs. LHB16 .345 415
vs. RHB17.7 .290 332
Live · client-hydrated

Market lines

current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day

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Live · client-hydrated

DFS picks

today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly

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