RunsLeft › Pitchers › Kyle Leahy
Starting Pitcher · St. Louis Cardinals

Kyle Leahy

RHP · Throws Right · Age 29Starter
Model projection · strikeout prop
56.1%
56.1% against a 57.7% break-even. Over 3.5 Ks, tonight vs. PHI. Confidence medium.
ERA
3.24
FIP
–
IP
122.1
W-L
10-4
WHIP
1.31
K%
21.5
BB%
6.8
GB%
–
K/9
8.2
HR/9
0.9
Drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals in 2018 (round 17). He made his MLB debut on July 7, 2023.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)

Tonight's Matchup

vs. Phillies · pregame

Projected xwOBA vs. Phillies current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .319

  1. 1 TT Trea Turner RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trea Turner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 LA Luis Arraez LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Arraez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 675 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 368 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 AB Alec Bohm RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Bohm
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 469 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 KS Kyle Schwarber LHB .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Schwarber
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 573 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .427 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 BH Bryce Harper LHB .362
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryce Harper
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 429 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 BM Brandon Marsh LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Marsh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 BS Bryson Stott LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryson Stott
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 542 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Justin Crawford LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Justin Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JR J.T. Realmuto RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.T. Realmuto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
▸ Full season matchup breakdown → · game preview

Four-Seam Fastball

FF · lead pitch

29% of pitches · .404 xwOBA allowed · 266 BIP · where it goes, what it costs

Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
4%6%5%2%1%4%9%9%4%2%3%8%15%10%5%0%2%3%2%1%0%1%2%3%2%
Rare 0% · Common 10% · Very common 20%+
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
.230.398.264.003–.664.305.507.367.000.464.486.397.274.505–.214.382.320––.700.158.678.691
Cold .200 · Avg .310 · Hot .500+
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
.009.024.012.000–.026.028.046.014.000.014.038.060.026.024–.003.010.006––.005.003.019.015
Low risk · Average · High-risk zone
Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) has allowed .404 xwOBA over 266 balls in play — his most-used pitch.

Arsenal

usage × whiff, ranked

6 pitch types · 3,962-pitch sample · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1

Four-Seam Fastball FF
29% usage · 16% whiff · .404 xwOBA · 94.1 mph
Slider SL
18% usage · 20% whiff · .360 xwOBA · 89.3 mph
Curveball CU
17% usage · 29% whiff · .261 xwOBA · 83.0 mph
Sweeper ST
14% usage · 23% whiff · .303 xwOBA · 84.8 mph
Changeup CH
12% usage · 28% whiff · .312 xwOBA · 88.5 mph
Sinker SI
11% usage · 8% whiff · .344 xwOBA · 94.0 mph
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
0102030405060706/236/287/47/107/207/318/78/18
Four-Seam FastballSliderCurveball
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1
SplitK%xwOBASample
vs. LHB21.2 .363 483
vs. RHB20.8 .313 539
Live · client-hydrated

Market lines

current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day

Live lines load in your browser.
Live · client-hydrated

DFS picks

today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly

Today’s picks load in your browser.