Cincinnati Reds vs Minnesota Twins
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 TJ Friedl CF
- 2 Matt McLain 2B
- 3 Elly De La Cruz SS
- 4 Sal Stewart 1B
- 5 Eugenio Suárez DH
- 6 Spencer Steer LF
- 7 Tyler Stephenson C
- 8 Rece Hinds RF
- 9 Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B
- 1 Byron Buxton CF
- 2 Trevor Larnach LF
- 3 Josh Bell DH
- 4 Victor Caratini C
- 5 Kody Clemens 1B
- 6 Luke Keaschall 2B
- 7 Tristan Gray 3B
- 8 Brooks Lee SS
- 9 James Outman RF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| MIN | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / B entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 3-0 with CIN listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.08 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.78 vs actual lineup 3.85
- Player execution +3.15 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.85 projection by 3.15 (scored 7)
- Game variance +3.22 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Stewart 0-for-5 batting 4th
- Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.39 vs actual lineup 4.35
- Player execution −0.35 R/G Players fell 0.35 short of the lineup's 4.35 projection (scored 4)
- Game variance −0.39 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Outman 2-for-4 from the 9-hole
Optimal lineups projected 3.8 – 4.4 — actual was 7 – 4.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.