RunsLeft › Pitchers › Bailey Ober
Starting Pitcher · Minnesota Twins

Bailey Ober

RHP · Throws Right · Age 30Starter
Model projection · strikeout prop
No graded line yet for tonight's start vs. Guardians. The projection appears when the model has a line to price.
ERA
4.59
FIP
–
IP
66.2
W-L
6-3
WHIP
1.22
K%
16.4
BB%
6.4
GB%
–
K/9
6.2
HR/9
1.6
Drafted by the Minnesota Twins in 2017 (round 12), he was selected by the Minnesota Twins from the Miami Marlins in November 2020. He made his MLB debut on May 18, 2021.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)

Tonight's Matchup

vs. Guardians · pregame

Projected xwOBA vs. Guardians current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .296

  1. 1 BR Brayan Rocchio SH .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brayan Rocchio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 367 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 SK Steven Kwan LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Steven Kwan
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 573 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CD Chase DeLauter LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chase DeLauter
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 KM Kyle Manzardo LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Manzardo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 DS Daniel Schneemann LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daniel Schneemann
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 TB Travis Bazzana LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Travis Bazzana
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 RH Rhys Hoskins RHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Rhys Hoskins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .229 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 PB Patrick Bailey SH .274
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Patrick Bailey
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 DF David Fry SH .277
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. David Fry
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
▸ Full season matchup breakdown → · game preview

Four-Seam Fastball

FF · lead pitch

35% of pitches · .356 xwOBA allowed · 573 BIP · where it goes, what it costs

Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
2%6%8%4%1%4%9%10%9%3%2%7%13%11%7%0%0%1%1%1%0%0%1%0%1%
Rare 0% · Common 10% · Very common 20%+
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
.699.513.243.325.068.584.303.417.277.171.507.285.448.346.243–.346.131.199.691––.691.296.696
Cold .200 · Avg .310 · Hot .500+
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
.015.029.019.013.001.025.028.041.025.004.009.020.057.038.017–.001.002.002.006––.003.001.006
Low risk · Average · High-risk zone
Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) has allowed .356 xwOBA over 573 balls in play — his most-used pitch.

Arsenal

usage × whiff, ranked

6 pitch types · 6,224-pitch sample · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1

Four-Seam Fastball FF
35% usage · 17% whiff · .356 xwOBA · 88.6 mph
Changeup CH
32% usage · 28% whiff · .267 xwOBA · 82.9 mph
Slider SL
17% usage · 18% whiff · .324 xwOBA · 82.6 mph
Sweeper ST
11% usage · 33% whiff · .220 xwOBA · 76.7 mph
Sinker SI
3% usage · 5% whiff · .547 xwOBA · 88.9 mph
Curveball CU
3% usage · 22% whiff · .551 xwOBA · 73.2 mph
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
010203040504/194/254/305/65/125/175/245/30
Four-Seam FastballChangeupSlider
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1
SplitK%xwOBASample
vs. LHB16.9 .312 801
vs. RHB21.8 .319 808
Live · client-hydrated

Market lines

current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day

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Live · client-hydrated

DFS picks

today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly

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