RunsLeft › Pitchers › Bailey Ober
Starting Pitcher · Minnesota Twins

Bailey Ober

RHP · Throws Right · Age 31Starter
Model projection · strikeout prop
49.8%
49.8% against a 57.7% break-even. Over 3.5 Ks, tonight vs. SD. Confidence medium.
ERA
4.62
FIP
–
IP
103.1
W-L
7-4
WHIP
1.25
K%
16.3
BB%
6.0
GB%
–
K/9
6.2
HR/9
1.5
Drafted by the Minnesota Twins in 2017 (round 12), he was selected by the Minnesota Twins from the Miami Marlins in November 2020. He made his MLB debut on May 18, 2021.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)

Tonight's Matchup

vs. Padres · pregame

Projected xwOBA vs. Padres current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .311

  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 438 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 383 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 489 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 496 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 370 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 338 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .282
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 390 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 507 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
▸ Full season matchup breakdown → · game preview

Four-Seam Fastball

FF · lead pitch

35% of pitches · .354 xwOBA allowed · 627 BIP · where it goes, what it costs

Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
3%6%7%4%1%4%9%10%9%2%2%8%14%11%7%0%0%1%1%1%0%0%1%1%1%
Rare 0% · Common 10% · Very common 20%+
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
.699.513.229.291.068.584.310.370.267.171.507.272.457.374.223–.209.131.214.691––.478.296.697
Cold .200 · Avg .310 · Hot .500+
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
.017.031.016.010.000.023.028.035.023.004.010.020.062.040.015–.001.002.002.006––.003.001.006
Low risk · Average · High-risk zone
Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) has allowed .354 xwOBA over 627 balls in play — his most-used pitch.

Arsenal

usage × whiff, ranked

6 pitch types · 6,822-pitch sample · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1

Four-Seam Fastball FF
35% usage · 16% whiff · .354 xwOBA · 88.1 mph
Changeup CH
31% usage · 27% whiff · .291 xwOBA · 82.7 mph
Slider SL
18% usage · 18% whiff · .329 xwOBA · 82.3 mph
Sweeper ST
11% usage · 36% whiff · .207 xwOBA · 76.1 mph
Sinker SI
3% usage · 5% whiff · .508 xwOBA · 88.7 mph
Curveball CU
3% usage · 21% whiff · .551 xwOBA · 73.0 mph
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
0102030405/307/97/177/227/308/68/118/17
Four-Seam FastballChangeupSlider
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1
SplitK%xwOBASample
vs. LHB15.7 .320 901
vs. RHB22.4 .321 862
Live · client-hydrated

Market lines

current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day

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DFS picks

today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly

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