Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 TJ Friedl CF
- 2 Matt McLain 2B
- 3 Elly De La Cruz SS
- 4 Sal Stewart 1B
- 5 Eugenio Suárez DH
- 6 Will Benson LF
- 7 Tyler Stephenson C
- 8 Noelvi Marte RF
- 9 Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B
- 1 Jakob Marsee CF
- 2 Xavier Edwards 2B
- 3 Agustín Ramírez DH
- 4 Liam Hicks C
- 5 Connor Norby 1B
- 6 Owen Caissie RF
- 7 Griffin Conine LF
- 8 Leo Jiménez SS
- 9 Graham Pauley 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| MIA | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / C+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 0-2 with CIN listed first across 2 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.34 vs actual lineup 4.41
- Player execution −0.41 R/G Players fell 0.41 short of the lineup's 4.41 projection (scored 4)
- Game variance −0.34 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
McLain 0-for-4 batting 2nd
- Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.46 vs actual lineup 4.42
- Player execution +2.58 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.42 projection by 2.58 (scored 7)
- Game variance +2.54 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Conine HR from the 7-hole
Optimal lineups projected 4.3 – 4.5 — actual was 4 – 7.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.