Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees Preview — October 7, 2026

Probable starters

AWAY · TB

Nick Martinez

HOME · NYY

Max Fried

Lineups

Lineups are usually announced ~90 minutes before first pitch. Check back soon.

Hitter season stats

Season-to-date lines for each hitter in the projected lineup, with a Marcel projection (Proj OPS). Season columns are 2026 to date; Proj is a forward-looking estimate, not a result.

AWAY · TB Projected · top 9 by AB

BATTER	2026 SEASON							PROJ OPS
BATTER	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI	K	PROJ OPS
1 Junior Caminero 3B · R	.276	.360	.524	.884	42	101	129	.767
2 Yandy Díaz DH · R	.293	.359	.446	.805	22	85	98	.745
3 Jonathan Aranda 1B · L	.274	.358	.434	.792	22	92	163	.743
4 Chandler Simpson LF · L	.306	.333	.356	.689	0	38	48	.731
5 Liam Hicks C · L	.284	.367	.434	.801	18	82	55	.726
6 Cedric Mullins CF · L	.205	.284	.344	.628	15	48	97	.709
7 Taylor Walls SS · S	.222	.309	.298	.607	2	36	105	.694
8 Jonny DeLuca RF · R	.266	.300	.429	.729	11	50	78	.717
9 Richie Palacios 2B · L	.235	.330	.374	.704	10	57	68	.720

HOME · NYY Projected · top 9 by AB

BATTER	2026 SEASON							PROJ OPS
BATTER	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI	K	PROJ OPS
1 Ben Rice DH · L	.264	.363	.534	.897	41	97	162	.741
2 Luis García Jr. 1B · L	.277	.309	.521	.830	30	92	97	.733
3 Cody Bellinger LF · L	.264	.338	.429	.767	17	73	89	.744
4 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B · L	.231	.312	.399	.711	19	55	157	.742
5 Trent Grisham CF · L	.211	.308	.395	.703	18	59	89	.727
6 José Caballero SS · R	.231	.290	.365	.655	14	51	111	.704
7 Heliot Ramos LF · R	.245	.305	.411	.716	13	46	121	.735
8 Paul Goldschmidt 1B · R	.252	.313	.452	.765	18	52	86	.707
9 Austin Wells C · L	.186	.292	.332	.624	14	32	103	.727

Pitcher vs. lineup projection

Projected expected wOBA for each probable starter against the opposing lineup, by batting order. A season-to-date matchup read — forward-looking, not a result.

TB starter vs Yankees lineup

Nick Martinez (RHP)

Lineup avg xwOBA .324

1 BR Ben Rice LHB .359
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Rice
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .412 xwOBA over 347 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
2 LG Luis García Jr. LHB .333
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis García Jr.
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 355 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
3 CB Cody Bellinger LHB .328
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cody Bellinger
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 587 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
4 JC Jazz Chisholm Jr. LHB .317
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jazz Chisholm Jr.
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 531 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
5 TG Trent Grisham LHB .329
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trent Grisham
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 445 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
6 JC José Caballero RHB .302
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Caballero
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
7 HR Heliot Ramos RHB .332
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heliot Ramos
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
8 PG Paul Goldschmidt RHB .315
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Paul Goldschmidt
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 455 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
9 AW Austin Wells LHB .305
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Wells
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.

Nick Martinez vs Yankees: full season matchup breakdown →

NYY starter vs Rays lineup

Max Fried (LHP)

Lineup avg xwOBA .307

1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .333
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
- Cutter (23% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (18% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 342 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (12% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (2% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .329
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
- Cutter (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (18% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 441 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 489 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (12% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (2% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .331
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
- Cutter (23% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (18% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (12% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (2% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .295
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
- Cutter (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (18% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (12% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (2% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .312
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
- Cutter (23% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (18% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 323 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (12% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (2% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .286
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
- Cutter (23% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (18% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 519 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (2% usage) projects to .239 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
7 TW Taylor Walls SH .278
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
- Cutter (23% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (18% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (12% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (2% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
8 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .292
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
- Cutter (23% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (18% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (12% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (2% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .309
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
- Cutter (23% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (18% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (2% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.

Max Fried vs Rays: full season matchup breakdown →

Manager comparison

AWAY · TB

Kevin Cash

Lineup 3.0 R Bunts 6.3 R IBBs 4.3 R

HOME · NYY

Aaron Boone

Lineup 3.6 R Bunts 0.5 R IBBs 3.3 R

Bullpen availability

AWAY · TB

Available 6
Limited 0
Rest required 0
Inactive 2

HOME · NYY

Available 5
Limited 0
Rest required 0
Inactive 0

Recent form

AWAY · TB

5-5 L1 +6 run diff

LWWLLLWWWL

HOME · NYY

5-4 ?1 +2 run diff

?LWWWWLLLW

Season series: 1-3 with TB listed first across 4 prior meetings.

Pitching & bullpen preview

Probable starters and each bullpen's availability load in the sections above — the Rays and Yankees staffs going in.

Once the game ends, a full pitching and bullpen breakdown appears here: starter lines, the relief sequence and each arm's role, pitch counts, and where the game turned.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. The pitching analysis describes how the game was pitched — the starter's line, the bullpen sequence and each arm's role (opener, bulk, setup, closer), pitch counts as a fatigue signal, and the leverage context where the game turned. Reliever roles are inferred from how the manager used each arm up to that date. It describes structure and constraints; it does not grade the manager.

Read the full methodology.