PITCHER MATCHUP

Max Fried vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Max Fried's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Max Fried's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .263vs RHH xwOBA .279Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Cutter 23%Sinker 19%Four-Seam Fastball 17%Curveball 17%Changeup 12%Sweeper 11%Slider 2%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Max Fried, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 432 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 483 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JC Junior Caminero RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 337 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 364 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 317 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .239 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .279
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 RP Richie Palacios LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-22 game page →