PITCHER MATCHUP

Max Fried vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Max Fried's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Max Fried's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .263vs RHH xwOBA .277Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Cutter 23%Sinker 18%Four-Seam Fastball 17%Curveball 16%Changeup 12%Sweeper 11%Slider 2%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Max Fried, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .307
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 348 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 452 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 505 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 422 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 381 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 333 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TW Taylor Walls SH .275
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 RP Richie Palacios LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NF Nick Fortes RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.