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Starting Pitcher · Tampa Bay Rays

Nick Martinez

RHP · Throws Right · Age 36Starter
Model projection · strikeout prop
59.4%
59.4% against a 57.7% break-even. Over 3.5 Ks, tonight vs. BAL. Confidence medium.
ERA
3.05
FIP
–
IP
141.2
W-L
12-4
WHIP
1.14
K%
14.5
BB%
3.8
GB%
–
K/9
5.3
HR/9
1.1
Drafted by the Texas Rangers in 2011 (round 18), he was signed by the Tampa Bay Rays in free agency in February 2026. He made his MLB debut on April 5, 2014.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)

Tonight's Matchup

vs. Orioles · pregame

Projected xwOBA vs. Orioles current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .320

  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 331 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 541 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .357
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 433 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 509 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 LT Leody Taveras SH .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CM Coby Mayo RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 SB Samuel Basallo LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samuel Basallo
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CC Colton Cowser LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .415 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JH Jackson Holliday LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Holliday
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 TO Tyler O'Neill RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler O'Neill
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
▸ Full season matchup breakdown → · game preview

Changeup

CH · lead pitch

23% of pitches · .232 xwOBA allowed · 431 BIP · where it goes, what it costs

Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
3%2%1%0%0%3%5%4%1%0%9%15%11%3%0%2%6%4%2%0%4%12%9%4%1%
Rare 0% · Common 10% · Very common 20%+
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
.424.346.009––.424.262.277.137–.198.273.253.111.202.164.155.317.252–.244.163.194.312.780
Cold .200 · Avg .310 · Hot .500+
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
.013.007.000––.014.012.010.002–.018.040.028.004.001.003.009.012.005–.011.019.017.013.007
Low risk · Average · High-risk zone
Changeup (23% usage) has allowed .232 xwOBA over 431 balls in play — his most-used pitch.

Arsenal

usage × whiff, ranked

6 pitch types · 6,774-pitch sample · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1

Changeup CH
23% usage · 30% whiff · .232 xwOBA · 78.2 mph
Sinker SI
23% usage · 8% whiff · .335 xwOBA · 92.3 mph
Cutter FC
21% usage · 13% whiff · .358 xwOBA · 89.1 mph
Four-Seam Fastball FF
17% usage · 11% whiff · .357 xwOBA · 92.7 mph
Curveball CU
9% usage · 17% whiff · .342 xwOBA · 79.9 mph
Slider SL
7% usage · 30% whiff · .325 xwOBA · 85.4 mph
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
010203040507/37/107/147/207/318/58/118/18
ChangeupSinkerCutter
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1
SplitK%xwOBASample
vs. LHB17.7 .318 889
vs. RHB13.3 .319 899
Live · client-hydrated

Market lines

current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day

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Live · client-hydrated

DFS picks

today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly

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