October 7, 2026 · NL West
Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres
@
Probable starters
AWAY
TBD
HOME · SD
Lineups
Lineups are usually announced ~90 minutes before first pitch. Check back soon.
Hitter season stats
Season-to-date lines for each hitter in the projected lineup, with a Marcel projection (Proj OPS). Season columns are 2026 to date; Proj is a forward-looking estimate, not a result.
AWAY · MIL Projected · top 9 by AB
| BATTER | 2026 SEASON | PROJ OPS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | K | ||
| 1 Brice Turang 2B · L | .268 | .366 | .450 | .816 | 21 | 100 | 171 | .730 |
| 2 William Contreras C · R | .270 | .341 | .417 | .758 | 18 | 94 | 94 | .751 |
| 3 Jackson Chourio LF · R | .291 | .351 | .487 | .838 | 25 | 75 | 134 | .766 |
| 4 Jake Bauers 1B · L | .266 | .389 | .484 | .873 | 26 | 86 | 156 | .712 |
| 5 Garrett Mitchell CF · L | .262 | .354 | .416 | .770 | 11 | 65 | 167 | .726 |
| 6 Christian Yelich DH · L | .235 | .315 | .378 | .693 | 12 | 59 | 135 | .739 |
| 7 Joey Ortiz SS · R | .270 | .328 | .402 | .730 | 9 | 47 | 82 | .707 |
| 8 David Hamilton 3B · L | .245 | .314 | .336 | .650 | 4 | 26 | 86 | .709 |
| 9 Sal Frelick RF · L | .230 | .295 | .319 | .614 | 4 | 40 | 38 | .731 |
HOME · SD Projected · top 9 by AB
| BATTER | 2026 SEASON | PROJ OPS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | K | ||
| 1 Fernando Tatis Jr. RF · R | .289 | .358 | .470 | .828 | 25 | 83 | 130 | .756 |
| 2 Jackson Merrill CF · L | .254 | .303 | .440 | .743 | 26 | 87 | 160 | .765 |
| 3 Manny Machado 3B · R | .217 | .303 | .407 | .710 | 30 | 91 | 144 | .733 |
| 4 Xander Bogaerts SS · R | .231 | .332 | .344 | .676 | 13 | 57 | 109 | .713 |
| 5 Ty France 1B · R | .295 | .363 | .502 | .865 | 21 | 72 | 108 | .703 |
| 6 Jake Cronenworth 2B · L | .225 | .308 | .321 | .629 | 7 | 41 | 97 | .714 |
| 7 Gavin Sheets 1B · L | .212 | .313 | .397 | .710 | 17 | 48 | 85 | .709 |
| 8 Miguel Andujar DH · R | .259 | .303 | .423 | .726 | 5 | 22 | 38 | .724 |
| 9 Freddy Fermin C · R | .203 | .274 | .315 | .589 | 4 | 24 | 56 | .708 |
Pitcher vs. lineup projection
Projected expected wOBA for each probable starter against the opposing lineup, by batting order. A season-to-date matchup read — forward-looking, not a result.
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1 BT Brice Turang LHB .342
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Turang
- Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 588 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (18% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (8% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
2 WC William Contreras RHB .320
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. William Contreras
- Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 521 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (18% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 412 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (8% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
-
3 JC Jackson Chourio SH .310
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Chourio
- Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (18% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
-
4 JB Jake Bauers LHB .348
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Bauers
- Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (18% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (8% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
-
5 GM Garrett Mitchell LHB .333
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Garrett Mitchell
- Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (18% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (8% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
6 CY Christian Yelich LHB .322
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Yelich
- Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (18% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
7 JO Joey Ortiz RHB .296
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joey Ortiz
- Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (18% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (8% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
-
8 DH David Hamilton LHB .297
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. David Hamilton
- Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (18% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (8% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
-
9 SF Sal Frelick LHB .300
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Frelick
- Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 528 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (18% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (8% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Manager comparison
AWAY · MIL
Lineup 2.8 R
Bunts 4.7 R
IBBs 5.3 R
HOME · SD
Lineup 2.4 R
Bunts 3.4 R
IBBs 3.1 R
Bullpen availability
AWAY · MIL
- Available 7
- Limited 0
- Rest required 0
- Inactive 0
HOME · SD
- Available 6
- Limited 0
- Rest required 0
- Inactive 1
Recent form
AWAY · MIL
8-2
W5
+14 run diff
WWWWWLWWWL
HOME · SD
8-2
W2
+18 run diff
WWLWWLWWWW
Pitching & bullpen preview
Probable starters and each bullpen's availability load in the sections above — the Brewers and Padres staffs going in.
Once the game ends, a full pitching and bullpen breakdown appears here: starter lines, the relief sequence and each arm's role, pitch counts, and where the game turned.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. The pitching analysis describes how the game was pitched — the starter's line, the bullpen sequence and each arm's role (opener, bulk, setup, closer), pitch counts as a fatigue signal, and the leverage context where the game turned. Reliever roles are inferred from how the manager used each arm up to that date. It describes structure and constraints; it does not grade the manager.