RunsLeft › Pitchers › Walker Buehler
Starting Pitcher · San Diego Padres

Walker Buehler

RHP · Throws Right · Age 32Starter
Model projection · strikeout prop
55.1%
55.1% against a 57.7% break-even. Over 3.5 Ks, tonight vs. MIN. Confidence medium.
ERA
4.79
FIP
–
IP
120.1
W-L
7-6
WHIP
1.39
K%
20.1
BB%
9.5
GB%
–
K/9
7.8
HR/9
1.1
Drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2015 (round 1), he was signed by the San Diego Padres in free agency in February 2026. He made his MLB debut on September 7, 2017.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)

Tonight's Matchup

vs. Twins · pregame

Projected xwOBA vs. Twins current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .318

  1. 1 JB Josh Bell SH .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 511 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BL Brooks Lee SH .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 KC Kody Clemens SH .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 BB Byron Buxton RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Byron Buxton
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 381 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 RL Royce Lewis RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 VC Victor Caratini SH .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RJ Ryan Jeffers RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Jeffers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
▸ Full season matchup breakdown → · game preview

Four-Seam Fastball

FF · lead pitch

23% of pitches · .428 xwOBA allowed · 282 BIP · where it goes, what it costs

Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
2%5%5%4%2%4%7%9%7%3%3%8%13%12%6%0%1%1%2%1%0%1%1%2%2%
Rare 0% · Common 10% · Very common 20%+
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
–.364.370.033–.696.488.350.244.395.458.342.489.523.492–.410.000.700.057––.531.694.693
Cold .200 · Avg .310 · Hot .500+
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
–.016.019.001–.029.033.030.017.011.012.027.066.060.031–.004.000.017.001––.006.012.014
Low risk · Average · High-risk zone
Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) has allowed .428 xwOBA over 282 balls in play — his most-used pitch.

Arsenal

usage × whiff, ranked

7 pitch types · 5,569-pitch sample · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1

Four-Seam Fastball FF
23% usage · 11% whiff · .428 xwOBA · 93.9 mph
Cutter FC
21% usage · 17% whiff · .343 xwOBA · 90.3 mph
Sinker SI
17% usage · 7% whiff · .315 xwOBA · 94.1 mph
Knuckle Curve KC
12% usage · 26% whiff · .335 xwOBA · 77.9 mph
Slider SL
12% usage · 22% whiff · .313 xwOBA · 86.9 mph
Changeup CH
8% usage · 27% whiff · .298 xwOBA · 89.0 mph
Sweeper ST
7% usage · 31% whiff · .236 xwOBA · 82.5 mph
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
010203040506/267/17/67/118/18/68/118/17
Four-Seam FastballCutterSinker
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1
SplitK%xwOBASample
vs. LHB19.1 .339 744
vs. RHB17.6 .333 628
Live · client-hydrated

Market lines

current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day

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Live · client-hydrated

DFS picks

today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly

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