Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees Preview — September 22, 2026

Probable starters

AWAY · TB

Nick Martinez

HOME · NYY

Carlos Rodón

Lineups

Lineups are usually announced ~90 minutes before first pitch. Check back soon.

Hitter season stats

Season-to-date lines for each hitter in the projected lineup, with a Marcel projection (Proj OPS). Season columns are 2026 to date; Proj is a forward-looking estimate, not a result.

AWAY · TB Projected · top 9 by AB

BATTER	2026 SEASON							PROJ OPS
BATTER	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI	K	PROJ OPS
1 Yandy Díaz DH · R	.292	.358	.449	.807	22	81	96	.745
2 Junior Caminero 3B · R	.277	.363	.529	.892	41	97	125	.767
3 Jonathan Aranda 1B · L	.277	.360	.440	.800	22	92	154	.743
4 Chandler Simpson LF · L	.309	.337	.360	.697	0	38	46	.731
5 Liam Hicks C · L	.288	.371	.440	.811	18	81	52	.726
6 Cedric Mullins CF · L	.202	.283	.340	.623	14	45	93	.711
7 Taylor Walls SS · S	.216	.304	.289	.593	2	35	101	.694
8 Richie Palacios 2B · L	.234	.330	.377	.707	10	53	65	.720
9 Jonny DeLuca RF · R	.259	.290	.410	.700	9	46	70	.717

HOME · NYY Projected · top 9 by AB

BATTER	2026 SEASON							PROJ OPS
BATTER	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI	K	PROJ OPS
1 Ben Rice DH · L	.261	.360	.528	.888	39	95	153	.741
2 Luis García Jr. 1B · L	.281	.311	.532	.843	30	91	93	.733
3 Cody Bellinger LF · L	.270	.344	.435	.779	16	71	86	.744
4 José Caballero SS · R	.236	.292	.373	.665	14	51	105	.704
5 Heliot Ramos LF · R	.241	.305	.409	.714	13	44	113	.735
6 Paul Goldschmidt 1B · R	.253	.316	.455	.771	18	50	85	.707
7 Austin Wells C · L	.186	.286	.326	.612	13	31	101	.727
8 Ryan McMahon 3B · L	.208	.275	.343	.618	10	35	102	.715
9 Spencer Jones RF · L	.248	.317	.442	.759	11	39	98	.737

Pitcher vs. lineup projection

Projected expected wOBA for each probable starter against the opposing lineup, by batting order. A season-to-date matchup read — forward-looking, not a result.

TB starter vs Yankees lineup

Nick Martinez (RHP)

Lineup avg xwOBA .324

1 BR Ben Rice LHB .357
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Rice
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .409 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
2 LG Luis García Jr. LHB .336
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis García Jr.
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 354 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
3 CB Cody Bellinger LHB .329
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cody Bellinger
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 580 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
4 JC José Caballero RHB .305
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Caballero
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
5 HR Heliot Ramos RHB .334
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heliot Ramos
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 317 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .401 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 436 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
6 PG Paul Goldschmidt RHB .316
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Paul Goldschmidt
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
7 AW Austin Wells LHB .303
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Wells
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 364 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
8 RM Ryan McMahon LHB .308
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan McMahon
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 510 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
9 SJ Spencer Jones LHB .330
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Jones
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.

Nick Martinez vs Yankees: full season matchup breakdown →

NYY starter vs Rays lineup

Carlos Rodón (LHP)

Lineup avg xwOBA .307

1 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .350
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
- Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 480 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (27% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (15% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (9% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 432 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (4% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
2 JC Junior Caminero RHB .349
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
- Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (27% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (15% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (9% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 337 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (4% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .330
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
- Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (27% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (15% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (9% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (4% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .298
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
- Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (27% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (15% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (9% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .316
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
- Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 317 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (27% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (15% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .277
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
- Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (27% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (15% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (4% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
7 TW Taylor Walls SH .262
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
- Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (27% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (15% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (4% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
8 RP Richie Palacios LHB .313
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
- Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (27% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (15% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (4% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
9 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .271
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
- Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (27% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (15% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (4% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.

Carlos Rodón vs Rays: full season matchup breakdown →

Manager comparison

AWAY · TB

Kevin Cash

Lineup 3.0 R Bunts 6.3 R IBBs 4.3 R

HOME · NYY

Aaron Boone

Lineup 3.5 R Bunts 0.4 R IBBs 3.3 R

Bullpen availability

AWAY · TB

Available 9
Limited 1
Rest required 0
Inactive 0

HOME · NYY

Available 6
Limited 2
Rest required 0
Inactive 0

Recent form

AWAY · TB

8-2 W2 +25 run diff

WWLWWWWWWL

HOME · NYY

6-4 L2 +13 run diff

LLWLWWWLWW

Pitching & bullpen preview

Probable starters and each bullpen's availability load in the sections above — the Rays and Yankees staffs going in.

Once the game ends, a full pitching and bullpen breakdown appears here: starter lines, the relief sequence and each arm's role, pitch counts, and where the game turned.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. The pitching analysis describes how the game was pitched — the starter's line, the bullpen sequence and each arm's role (opener, bulk, setup, closer), pitch counts as a fatigue signal, and the leverage context where the game turned. Reliever roles are inferred from how the manager used each arm up to that date. It describes structure and constraints; it does not grade the manager.

Read the full methodology.