RunsLeft › Pitchers › Carlos Rodón
Starting Pitcher · New York Yankees

Carlos Rodón

LHP · Throws Left · Age 33Starter
Model projection · strikeout prop
42.7%
42.7% against a 57.7% break-even. Over 5.5 Ks, tonight vs. TOR. Confidence low.
ERA
3.22
FIP
–
IP
50.1
W-L
4-2
WHIP
1.23
K%
26.5
BB%
13.3
GB%
–
K/9
10.0
HR/9
0.7
Drafted by the Chicago White Sox in 2014 (round 1), he was signed by the New York Yankees in free agency in December 2022. He made his MLB debut on April 21, 2015.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)

Tonight's Matchup

vs. Blue Jays · pregame

Projected xwOBA vs. Blue Jays current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .315

  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 GS George Springer RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. George Springer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 415 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 348 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JS Jesús Sánchez LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jesús Sánchez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MS Myles Straw RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Myles Straw
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AK Alejandro Kirk RHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alejandro Kirk
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
▸ Full season matchup breakdown → · game preview

Four-Seam Fastball

FF · lead pitch

44% of pitches · .366 xwOBA allowed · 733 BIP · where it goes, what it costs

Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
1%3%5%4%2%3%5%7%7%4%5%9%13%11%6%1%2%3%2%1%1%2%3%2%1%
Rare 0% · Common 10% · Very common 20%+
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
.433.143.162.370.591.356.328.345.383.358.587.306.405.336.463.326.247.229.127.308.693.550.494.363.000
Cold .200 · Avg .310 · Hot .500+
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
.005.004.008.013.014.010.016.024.026.016.029.026.051.035.029.004.004.007.003.003.006.010.012.006.000
Low risk · Average · High-risk zone
Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) has allowed .366 xwOBA over 733 balls in play — his most-used pitch.

Arsenal

usage × whiff, ranked

6 pitch types · 7,227-pitch sample · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1

Four-Seam Fastball FF
44% usage · 19% whiff · .366 xwOBA · 94.4 mph
Slider SL
27% usage · 37% whiff · .227 xwOBA · 86.3 mph
Changeup CH
15% usage · 37% whiff · .257 xwOBA · 85.5 mph
Sinker SI
9% usage · 22% whiff · .287 xwOBA · 93.3 mph
Curveball CU
4% usage · 30% whiff · .245 xwOBA
Cutter FC
1% usage · 23% whiff · .400 xwOBA
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
0102030405060705/215/296/46/106/176/236/288/18
Four-Seam FastballSliderChangeup
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1
SplitK%xwOBASample
vs. LHB27.5 .288 365
vs. RHB25.5 .297 1,364
Live · client-hydrated

Market lines

current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day

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DFS picks

today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly

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