June 26, 2026 · NL Cent
Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates
@
Probable starters
AWAY · CIN
HOME
TBD
Lineups
Lineups are usually announced ~90 minutes before first pitch. Check back soon.
Pitcher vs. lineup projection
Projected expected wOBA for each probable starter against the opposing lineup, by batting order. A season-to-date matchup read — forward-looking, not a result.
CIN starter vs Pirates lineup
Andrew Abbott (LHP)
Lineup avg xwOBA .315
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1 BL Brandon Lowe SH .346
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
- Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 333 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (18% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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2 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .333
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
- Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 488 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (18% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .309
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
- Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (18% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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4 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .306
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
- Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 368 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (18% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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5 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .324
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
- Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 412 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (18% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
6 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .337
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
- Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (18% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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7 JM Jake Mangum SH .308
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
- Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (18% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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8 JT Jared Triolo RHB .287
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
- Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (18% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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9 HD Henry Davis RHB .286
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
- Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (18% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Manager comparison
AWAY · CIN
Lineup 1.7 R
Bunts 1.5 R
IBBs 2.9 R
HOME · PIT
Lineup 3.0 R
Bunts 0.6 R
IBBs 1.8 R
Bullpen availability
AWAY · CIN
- Available 6
- Limited 0
- Rest required 0
- Inactive 2
HOME · PIT
- Available 7
- Limited 0
- Rest required 0
- Inactive 0
Recent form
AWAY · CIN
5-5
L1
+7 run diff
LWWLLWWLWL
HOME · PIT
4-6
W1
-8 run diff
WLLWWLLWLL
Pitching & bullpen preview
Probable starters and each bullpen's availability load in the sections above — the Reds and Pirates staffs going in.
Once the game ends, a full pitching and bullpen breakdown appears here: starter lines, the relief sequence and each arm's role, pitch counts, and where the game turned.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. The pitching analysis describes how the game was pitched — the starter's line, the bullpen sequence and each arm's role (opener, bulk, setup, closer), pitch counts as a fatigue signal, and the leverage context where the game turned. Reliever roles are inferred from how the manager used each arm up to that date. It describes structure and constraints; it does not grade the manager.