June 24, 2026 · NL Cent
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
@
Probable starters
AWAY · MIL
HOME · CIN
Lineups
Lineups are usually announced ~90 minutes before first pitch. Check back soon.
Pitcher vs. lineup projection
Projected expected wOBA for each probable starter against the opposing lineup, by batting order. A season-to-date matchup read — forward-looking, not a result.
MIL starter vs Reds lineup
Shane Drohan (LHP)
Lineup avg xwOBA .315
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1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .332
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (20% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (19% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (13% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (5% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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2 SS Spencer Steer RHB .308
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Steer
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (20% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (13% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (5% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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3 MM Matt McLain RHB .322
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (20% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (19% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (13% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (5% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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4 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .315
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (20% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (19% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (13% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (5% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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5 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .314
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 469 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (20% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (13% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (5% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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6 JB JJ Bleday LHB .326
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 354 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (20% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (19% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (13% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (5% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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7 NL Nathaniel Lowe LHB .303
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathaniel Lowe
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 498 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (20% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (19% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (13% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (5% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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8 BD Blake Dunn RHB .305
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Blake Dunn
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (20% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (19% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (5% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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9 DM Dane Myers RHB .311
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dane Myers
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (20% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (19% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (13% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (5% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
CIN starter vs Brewers lineup
Rhett Lowder (RHP)
Lineup avg xwOBA .312
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1 WC William Contreras RHB .326
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. William Contreras
- Sinker (29% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 347 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (25% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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2 BT Brice Turang LHB .326
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Turang
- Sinker (29% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (25% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 483 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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3 JB Jake Bauers LHB .317
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Bauers
- Sinker (29% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (25% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
4 SF Sal Frelick LHB .307
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Frelick
- Sinker (29% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (25% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 494 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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5 GM Garrett Mitchell LHB .310
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Garrett Mitchell
- Sinker (29% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (25% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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6 DH David Hamilton LHB .296
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. David Hamilton
- Sinker (29% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (25% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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7 JC Jackson Chourio RHB .311
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Chourio
- Sinker (29% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (25% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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8 CY Christian Yelich LHB .323
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Yelich
- Sinker (29% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (25% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 336 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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9 JO Joey Ortiz RHB .295
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joey Ortiz
- Sinker (29% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (25% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 359 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Manager comparison
AWAY · MIL
Lineup 1.5 R
Bunts 2.8 R
IBBs 4.1 R
HOME · CIN
Lineup 1.7 R
Bunts 1.5 R
IBBs 2.9 R
Bullpen availability
AWAY · MIL
- Available 7
- Limited 1
- Rest required 0
- Inactive 0
HOME · CIN
- Available 6
- Limited 0
- Rest required 0
- Inactive 2
Recent form
AWAY · MIL
6-4
W2
+17 run diff
WWLLLWWWLW
HOME · CIN
5-5
L1
+7 run diff
LWWLLWWLWL
Season series: 1-0 with MIL listed first across 1 prior meeting.
Pitching & bullpen preview
Probable starters and each bullpen's availability load in the sections above — the Brewers and Reds staffs going in.
Once the game ends, a full pitching and bullpen breakdown appears here: starter lines, the relief sequence and each arm's role, pitch counts, and where the game turned.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. The pitching analysis describes how the game was pitched — the starter's line, the bullpen sequence and each arm's role (opener, bulk, setup, closer), pitch counts as a fatigue signal, and the leverage context where the game turned. Reliever roles are inferred from how the manager used each arm up to that date. It describes structure and constraints; it does not grade the manager.