June 23, 2026 · NL Cent
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
@
Probable starters
AWAY · MIL
HOME · CIN
Lineups
Lineups are usually announced ~90 minutes before first pitch. Check back soon.
Pitcher vs. lineup projection
Projected expected wOBA for each probable starter against the opposing lineup, by batting order. A season-to-date matchup read — forward-looking, not a result.
MIL starter vs Reds lineup
Brandon Sproat (RHP)
Lineup avg xwOBA .321
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1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .346
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
- Sinker (27% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (9% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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2 SS Spencer Steer RHB .318
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Steer
- Sinker (27% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (9% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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3 MM Matt McLain RHB .326
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
- Sinker (27% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (9% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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4 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .313
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
- Sinker (27% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (9% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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5 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .325
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
- Sinker (27% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 469 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (9% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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6 JB JJ Bleday LHB .332
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
- Sinker (27% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 354 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (9% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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7 NL Nathaniel Lowe LHB .321
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathaniel Lowe
- Sinker (27% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 498 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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8 BD Blake Dunn RHB .303
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Blake Dunn
- Sinker (27% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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9 DM Dane Myers RHB .307
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dane Myers
- Sinker (27% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (9% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
CIN starter vs Brewers lineup
Nick Lodolo (LHP)
Lineup avg xwOBA .313
-
1 WC William Contreras RHB .323
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. William Contreras
- Curveball (28% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 347 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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2 BT Brice Turang LHB .309
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Turang
- Curveball (28% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 483 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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3 JB Jake Bauers LHB .331
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Bauers
- Curveball (28% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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4 SF Sal Frelick LHB .306
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Frelick
- Curveball (28% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 494 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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5 GM Garrett Mitchell LHB .310
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Garrett Mitchell
- Curveball (28% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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6 DH David Hamilton LHB .311
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. David Hamilton
- Curveball (28% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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7 JC Jackson Chourio RHB .310
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Chourio
- Curveball (28% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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8 CY Christian Yelich LHB .324
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Yelich
- Curveball (28% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 336 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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9 JO Joey Ortiz RHB .293
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joey Ortiz
- Curveball (28% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 359 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Manager comparison
AWAY · MIL
Lineup 1.5 R
Bunts 2.8 R
IBBs 4.1 R
HOME · CIN
Lineup 1.7 R
Bunts 1.5 R
IBBs 2.9 R
Bullpen availability
AWAY · MIL
- Available 7
- Limited 1
- Rest required 0
- Inactive 0
HOME · CIN
- Available 6
- Limited 0
- Rest required 0
- Inactive 2
Recent form
AWAY · MIL
6-4
W2
+17 run diff
WWLLLWWWLW
HOME · CIN
5-5
L1
+7 run diff
LWWLLWWLWL
Season series: 1-0 with MIL listed first across 1 prior meeting.
Pitching & bullpen preview
Probable starters and each bullpen's availability load in the sections above — the Brewers and Reds staffs going in.
Once the game ends, a full pitching and bullpen breakdown appears here: starter lines, the relief sequence and each arm's role, pitch counts, and where the game turned.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. The pitching analysis describes how the game was pitched — the starter's line, the bullpen sequence and each arm's role (opener, bulk, setup, closer), pitch counts as a fatigue signal, and the leverage context where the game turned. Reliever roles are inferred from how the manager used each arm up to that date. It describes structure and constraints; it does not grade the manager.