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Pitcher

Chase Petty

Swingman
Model projection · strikeout prop
15.8%
15.8% against a 57.7% break-even. Over 1.5 Ks, tonight vs. WSH. Confidence low.
ERA
4.50
FIP
–
IP
30.0
W-L
1-2
WHIP
1.23
K%
10.8
BB%
6.2
GB%
–
K/9
4.2
HR/9
1.5

Tonight's Matchup

vs. Nationals · pregame

Projected xwOBA vs. Nationals current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .305

  1. 1 DL Daylen Lile LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daylen Lile
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CA CJ Abrams LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. CJ Abrams
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 461 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NN Nasim Nuñez SH .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nasim Nuñez
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JY Jacob Young RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jacob Young
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 KR Keibert Ruiz SH .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Keibert Ruiz
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 DC Dylan Crews RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Crews
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JV Jorbit Vivas LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jorbit Vivas
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JT José Tena LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Tena
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BH Brady House RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brady House
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
▸ Full season matchup breakdown → · game preview

Sinker

SI · lead pitch

29% of pitches · .435 xwOBA allowed · 61 BIP · where it goes, what it costs

Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
2%1%3%1%1%7%7%9%2%0%7%15%21%9%1%1%1%2%3%1%1%2%2%2%1%
Rare 0% · Common 10% · Very common 20%+
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
–.010–.708–.275.392.633––.055.839.421.108.703–.645–.113––.375–––
Cold .200 · Avg .310 · Hot .500+
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
–.000–.005–.020.026.060––.004.126.086.010.005–.009–.003––.007–––
Low risk · Average · High-risk zone
Sinker (29% usage) has allowed .435 xwOBA over 61 balls in play — his most-used pitch.

Arsenal

usage × whiff, ranked

5 pitch types · 568-pitch sample · 2026/2025 blend, weighted 4/3/1

Sinker SI
29% usage · 8% whiff · .435 xwOBA · 96.4 mph
Changeup CH
21% usage · 36% whiff · .296 xwOBA · 87.4 mph
Four-Seam Fastball FF
20% usage · 14% whiff · .267 xwOBA · 97.0 mph
Sweeper ST
16% usage · 33% whiff · .369 xwOBA · 83.4 mph
Slider SL
15% usage · 28% whiff · .414 xwOBA · 89.5 mph
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
01020306/206/236/276/297/37/127/207/29
SinkerChangeupFour-Seam Fastball
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026/2025 blend, weighted 4/3/1
SplitK%xwOBASample
vs. LHB14.1 .301 73
vs. RHB9.4 .435 83
Live · client-hydrated

Market lines

current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day

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Live · client-hydrated

DFS picks

today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly

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