Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Dane Myers CF
- 2 Matt McLain SS
- 3 Elly De La Cruz DH
- 4 Sal Stewart 2B
- 5 Spencer Steer 1B
- 6 Tyler Stephenson C
- 7 JJ Bleday LF
- 8 Blake Dunn RF
- 9 Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B
- 1 Nico Hoerner 2B
- 2 Moisés Ballesteros DH
- 3 Alex Bregman 3B
- 4 Ian Happ LF
- 5 Michael Busch 1B
- 6 Michael Conforto RF
- 7 Dansby Swanson SS
- 8 Pete Crow-Armstrong CF
- 9 Miguel Amaya C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| CHC | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / C entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 0-4 with CIN listed first across 4 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.79 vs actual lineup 2.81
- Player execution +0.19 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.81 projection by 0.19 (scored 3)
- Game variance +0.21 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Dunn HR from the 8-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.09 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.90 vs actual lineup 4.80
- Player execution +3.20 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.80 projection by 3.20 (scored 8)
- Game variance +3.10 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Ballesteros 0-for-4 batting 2nd
Optimal lineups projected 2.8 – 4.9 — actual was 3 – 8.
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Spencer Steer extends hit streak to 10 gamesSpencer Steer (CIN) has a hit in 10 consecutive games — past the 10-game watermark.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.