RunsLeft › Pitchers › Shota Imanaga
Starting Pitcher · Chicago Cubs

Shota Imanaga

LHP · Throws Left · Age 32Starter
Model projection · strikeout prop
50.7%
50.7% against a 57.7% break-even. Over 5.5 Ks, tonight vs. SEA. Confidence medium.
ERA
3.77
FIP
–
IP
143.1
W-L
8-9
WHIP
1.09
K%
24.2
BB%
5.5
GB%
–
K/9
8.8
HR/9
1.8
He was signed by the Chicago Cubs in free agency in November 2025. He made his MLB debut on April 1, 2024.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)

Tonight's Matchup

vs. Mariners · pregame

Projected xwOBA vs. Mariners current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .321

  1. 1 CY Cole Young LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JN Josh Naylor LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 392 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 549 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 350 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TW Taylor Ward RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 541 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CR Cal Raleigh SH .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 603 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BD Brendan Donovan LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brendan Donovan
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 VR Victor Robles RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Robles
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (32% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
▸ Full season matchup breakdown → · game preview

Four-Seam Fastball

FF · lead pitch

45% of pitches · .342 xwOBA allowed · 820 BIP · where it goes, what it costs

Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
1%3%7%6%3%4%9%12%7%3%6%12%12%6%2%2%1%2%0%0%1%1%1%0%0%
Rare 0% · Common 10% · Very common 20%+
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
.609.088.189.309.691.275.290.337.389.452.445.331.449.351.416.689.318.188.140–.689.380.222.691–
Cold .200 · Avg .310 · Hot .500+
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
.006.003.014.019.019.010.026.040.028.014.027.039.053.021.008.010.004.003.001–.004.003.002.002–
Low risk · Average · High-risk zone
Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) has allowed .342 xwOBA over 820 balls in play — his most-used pitch.

Arsenal

usage × whiff, ranked

7 pitch types · 7,048-pitch sample · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1

Four-Seam Fastball FF
45% usage · 16% whiff · .342 xwOBA · 91.7 mph
Splitter FS
32% usage · 38% whiff · .253 xwOBA · 83.0 mph
Sweeper ST
15% usage · 31% whiff · .305 xwOBA · 81.4 mph
Sinker SI
4% usage · 19% whiff · .353 xwOBA · 90.2 mph
Curveball CU
3% usage · 10% whiff · .458 xwOBA · 74.5 mph
Slider SL
1% usage · 46% whiff · .437 xwOBA · 86.3 mph
Changeup CH
1% usage · 33% whiff · .253 xwOBA
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
01020304050607080906/297/47/107/197/318/58/118/17
Four-Seam FastballSplitterSweeper
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1
SplitK%xwOBASample
vs. LHB26.9 .295 436
vs. RHB22.4 .310 1,360
Live · client-hydrated

Market lines

current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day

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Live · client-hydrated

DFS picks

today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly

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