Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 TJ Friedl CF
- 2 JJ Bleday LF
- 3 Elly De La Cruz SS
- 4 Sal Stewart 3B
- 5 Nathaniel Lowe DH
- 6 Spencer Steer 1B
- 7 Will Benson RF
- 8 Jose Trevino C
- 9 Matt McLain 2B
- 1 Nico Hoerner 2B
- 2 Moisés Ballesteros DH
- 3 Alex Bregman 3B
- 4 Ian Happ LF
- 5 Seiya Suzuki RF
- 6 Michael Busch 1B
- 7 Carson Kelly C
- 8 Pete Crow-Armstrong CF
- 9 Dansby Swanson SS
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| CHC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / C entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 0-4 with CIN listed first across 4 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.12 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.05 vs actual lineup 3.93
- Player execution +2.07 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.93 projection by 2.07 (scored 6)
- Game variance +1.95 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
McLain HR from the 9-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.78 vs actual lineup 4.75
- Player execution +2.25 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.75 projection by 2.25 (scored 7)
- Game variance +2.22 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Crow-Armstrong HR from the 8-hole
Optimal lineups projected 4.0 – 4.8 — actual was 6 – 7.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.