Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 TJ Friedl CF
- 2 JJ Bleday LF
- 3 Elly De La Cruz SS
- 4 Sal Stewart 1B
- 5 Nathaniel Lowe DH
- 6 Spencer Steer RF
- 7 Tyler Stephenson C
- 8 Matt McLain 2B
- 9 Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B
- 1 Nico Hoerner 2B
- 2 Alex Bregman DH
- 3 Ian Happ LF
- 4 Seiya Suzuki RF
- 5 Dansby Swanson SS
- 6 Michael Busch 1B
- 7 Matt Shaw 3B
- 8 Miguel Amaya C
- 9 Pete Crow-Armstrong CF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / C entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 0-4 with CIN listed first across 4 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.09 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.05 vs actual lineup 3.95
- Player execution −1.95 R/G Players fell 1.95 short of the lineup's 3.95 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −2.05 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Friedl 0-for-5 batting 1st
- Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.81 vs actual lineup 4.80
- Player execution −1.80 R/G Players fell 1.80 short of the lineup's 4.80 projection (scored 3)
- Game variance −1.81 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Happ 0-for-4 batting 3rd
Optimal lineups projected 4.0 – 4.8 — actual was 2 – 3.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.