ARCHIVE May 5, 2026
May 5, 2026 · AL Cent

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals

May 5, 2026Kauffman StadiumCloudy 53°F · 0 mph, Calm
AWAY
Cleveland Guardians
18-19
3
vs
HOME
Kansas City Royals
17-19
5

Starting pitchers

AWAY · CLE
Gavin Williams
Gavin Williams
IP 6
HOME · KC
Stephen Kolek
Stephen Kolek
IP 6

Lineups

AWAY · CLE
  1. 1 Steven Kwan CF
  2. 2 Chase DeLauter RF
  3. 3 José Ramírez 3B
  4. 4 Kyle Manzardo 1B
  5. 5 Rhys Hoskins DH
  6. 6 Daniel Schneemann SS
  7. 7 Travis Bazzana 2B
  8. 8 Angel Martínez LF
  9. 9 Bo Naylor C
HOME · KC
  1. 1 Maikel Garcia 3B
  2. 2 Bobby Witt Jr. SS
  3. 3 Vinnie Pasquantino 1B
  4. 4 Salvador Perez DH
  5. 5 Carter Jensen C
  6. 6 Jac Caglianone RF
  7. 7 Isaac Collins LF
  8. 8 Michael Massey 2B
  9. 9 Kyle Isbel CF

Box score

  123456789 R
CLE 000300000 3
KC 200201000 5

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C+ / C entering this matchup.

AWAY · CLE
Stephen Vogt
C+ Lineup 1.5 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 0.4 R
HOME · KC
Matt Quatraro
C Lineup 1.9 R Bunts 1.1 R IBBs 0.8 R

Recent form

AWAY · CLE
6-4 W3 +7 run diff
WWWLLLWWWL
HOME · KC
6-4 W1 +1 run diff
WLLWWWWWLL

Season series: 3-2 with CLE listed first across 5 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Cleveland Guardians
  • Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.04 vs actual lineup 4.03
  • Player execution −1.03 R/G Players fell 1.03 short of the lineup's 4.03 projection (scored 3)
  • Game variance −1.04 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Kwan 0-for-4 batting 1st

HOME · Kansas City Royals
  • Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.44 vs actual lineup 3.44
  • Player execution +1.56 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.44 projection by 1.56 (scored 5)
  • Game variance +1.56 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Collins HR from the 7-hole

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.0 – 3.4 — actual was 3 – 5.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.