RunsLeft › Pitchers › Gavin Williams
Starting Pitcher · Cleveland Guardians

Gavin Williams

RHP · Throws Right · Age 26Starter
Model projection · strikeout prop
49.8%
49.8% against a 57.7% break-even. Over 5.5 Ks, tonight vs. MIN. Confidence medium.
ERA
3.89
FIP
–
IP
106.1
W-L
9-4
WHIP
1.18
K%
28.3
BB%
8.3
GB%
–
K/9
10.4
HR/9
1.4
Drafted by the Cleveland Indians in 2021 (round 1). He made his MLB debut on June 21, 2023.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)

Tonight's Matchup

vs. Twins · pregame

Projected xwOBA vs. Twins current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .314

  1. 1 BL Brooks Lee SH .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 333 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JB Josh Bell SH .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 472 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 KC Kody Clemens SH .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 426 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AM Austin Martin RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Martin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 VC Victor Caratini SH .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 RL Royce Lewis RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 TG Tristan Gray LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tristan Gray
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
▸ Full season matchup breakdown → · game preview

Four-Seam Fastball

FF · lead pitch

33% of pitches · .374 xwOBA allowed · 499 BIP · where it goes, what it costs

Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
3%6%7%5%2%3%9%12%9%4%2%7%12%9%6%0%0%1%1%1%0%0%0%1%1%
Rare 0% · Common 10% · Very common 20%+
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
.463.233.280.248.248.385.228.453.246.272.527.468.395.346.676–.480.134.006.700––.691.676.691
Cold .200 · Avg .310 · Hot .500+
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
.015.014.018.011.004.012.019.053.021.010.011.033.047.033.043–.001.002.000.008––.003.004.005
Low risk · Average · High-risk zone
Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) has allowed .374 xwOBA over 499 balls in play — his most-used pitch.

Arsenal

usage × whiff, ranked

7 pitch types · 6,136-pitch sample · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1

Four-Seam Fastball FF
33% usage · 22% whiff · .374 xwOBA · 96.8 mph
Curveball CU
22% usage · 29% whiff · .261 xwOBA · 82.7 mph
Sweeper ST
21% usage · 44% whiff · .250 xwOBA · 87.3 mph
Cutter FC
12% usage · 19% whiff · .386 xwOBA · 92.2 mph
Sinker SI
11% usage · 11% whiff · .383 xwOBA · 96.6 mph
Slider SL
1% usage · 24% whiff · .269 xwOBA
Changeup CH
1% usage · 10% whiff · .469 xwOBA
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
0102030405060705/225/276/36/86/176/226/287/3
Four-Seam FastballCurveballSweeper
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1
SplitK%xwOBASample
vs. LHB26.9 .319 805
vs. RHB24.8 .333 660
Live · client-hydrated

Market lines

current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day

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Live · client-hydrated

DFS picks

today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly

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