RunsLeft › Pitchers › Daniel Lynch IV
Pitcher · Kansas City Royals

Daniel Lynch IV

LHP · Throws Left · Age 29Swingman
Model projection · strikeout prop
6.3%
6.3% against a 57.7% break-even. Over 2.5 Ks, tonight vs. DET. Confidence low.
ERA
2.83
FIP
–
IP
54.0
W-L
4-4
WHIP
1.02
K%
18.8
BB%
7.3
GB%
–
K/9
6.8
HR/9
0.7
Drafted by the Kansas City Royals in 2018 (round 1C). He made his MLB debut on May 3, 2021.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)

Tonight's Matchup

vs. Tigers · pregame

Projected xwOBA vs. Tigers current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .314

  1. 1 KM Kevin McGonigle LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kevin McGonigle
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 DD Dillon Dingler RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dillon Dingler
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 ST Spencer Torkelson RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Torkelson
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 426 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CK Colt Keith LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Keith
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 398 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 ZM Zach McKinstry LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Zach McKinstry
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 GT Gleyber Torres RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gleyber Torres
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 494 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 HL Hao-Yu Lee RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hao-Yu Lee
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  8. 8 JB Javier Báez SH .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Báez
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Max Clark LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Max Clark
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
▸ Full season matchup breakdown → · game preview

Slider

SL · lead pitch

26% of pitches · .268 xwOBA allowed · 169 BIP · where it goes, what it costs

Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
0%0%1%1%1%1%3%4%3%2%10%13%10%7%2%8%5%4%2%1%9%6%6%3%1%
Rare 0% · Common 10% · Very common 20%+
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
–.000.691.000.689.002.204.151.416–.124.249.344.509.160.156.303.301.391–.244.065.070.054–
Cold .200 · Avg .310 · Hot .500+
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
–.000.007.000.008.000.006.006.011–.013.032.036.035.004.012.015.011.006–.021.004.004.001–
Low risk · Average · High-risk zone
Slider (26% usage) has allowed .268 xwOBA over 169 balls in play — his most-used pitch.

Arsenal

usage × whiff, ranked

5 pitch types · 2,504-pitch sample · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1

Slider SL
26% usage · 35% whiff · .268 xwOBA · 87.3 mph
Sinker SI
23% usage · 14% whiff · .289 xwOBA · 94.4 mph
Changeup CH
22% usage · 27% whiff · .285 xwOBA · 85.9 mph
Four-Seam Fastball FF
21% usage · 12% whiff · .382 xwOBA · 95.0 mph
Knuckle Curve KC
8% usage · 32% whiff · .428 xwOBA · 81.6 mph
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
01020304050607/107/187/207/227/298/48/78/18
SliderSinkerChangeup
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1
SplitK%xwOBASample
vs. LHB20.2 .267 259
vs. RHB17.2 .334 402
Live · client-hydrated

Market lines

current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day

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Live · client-hydrated

DFS picks

today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly

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