ARCHIVE May 4, 2026
May 4, 2026 · NL Cent

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals

May 4, 2026Busch StadiumCloudy 72°F · 11 mph, R To L
AWAY
Milwaukee Brewers
18-16
3
vs
HOME
St. Louis Cardinals
21-14
6

Starting pitchers

AWAY · MIL
Chad Patrick
Chad Patrick
IP 3.1
HOME · STL
Kyle Leahy
Kyle Leahy
IP 5.1

Lineups

AWAY · MIL
  1. 1 Garrett Mitchell CF
  2. 2 Jackson Chourio LF
  3. 3 Brice Turang 2B
  4. 4 William Contreras C
  5. 5 Jake Bauers 1B
  6. 6 Andrew Vaughn DH
  7. 7 Sal Frelick RF
  8. 8 Luis Rengifo 3B
  9. 9 David Hamilton SS
HOME · STL
  1. 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
  2. 2 Iván Herrera DH
  3. 3 Alec Burleson 1B
  4. 4 Jordan Walker RF
  5. 5 Nolan Gorman 3B
  6. 6 Masyn Winn SS
  7. 7 Nathan Church LF
  8. 8 Pedro Pagés C
  9. 9 Victor Scott II CF

Box score

  123456789 R
MIL 000001002 3
STL 010300110 6

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B- / B- entering this matchup.

AWAY · MIL
Pat Murphy
B- Lineup 0.6 R Bunts 1.4 R IBBs 3.1 R
HOME · STL
Oliver Marmol
B- Lineup 1.2 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 0.3 R

Recent form

AWAY · MIL
6-3 W2 +33 run diff
WW?LLWWWLW
HOME · STL
7-2 W1 +13 run diff
WL?WLWWWWW

Season series: 1-1 with MIL listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Milwaukee Brewers
  • Manager lineup cost −0.10 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.29 vs actual lineup 4.39
  • Player execution −1.39 R/G Players fell 1.39 short of the lineup's 4.39 projection (scored 3)
  • Game variance −1.29 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Mitchell 0-for-5 batting 1st

HOME · St. Louis Cardinals
  • Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.53 vs actual lineup 3.52
  • Player execution +2.48 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.52 projection by 2.48 (scored 6)
  • Game variance +2.47 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Burleson 0-for-5 batting 3rd

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.3 – 3.5 — actual was 3 – 6.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.