ARCHIVE May 3, 2026
May 3, 2026 · NL East

Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals

May 3, 2026Nationals ParkPartly Cloudy 55°F · 13 mph, L To R
AWAY
Milwaukee Brewers
18-15
2
vs
HOME
Washington Nationals
16-19
3

Starting pitchers

AWAY · MIL
Logan Henderson
Logan Henderson
IP 6
HOME · WSH
Zack Littell
Zack Littell
IP 3.2

Lineups

AWAY · MIL
  1. 1 Luis Rengifo 3B
  2. 2 William Contreras C
  3. 3 Gary Sánchez DH
  4. 4 Jake Bauers 1B
  5. 5 Garrett Mitchell CF
  6. 6 Brandon Lockridge LF
  7. 7 Sal Frelick RF
  8. 8 David Hamilton 2B
  9. 9 Joey Ortiz SS
HOME · WSH
  1. 1 James Wood RF
  2. 2 Luis García Jr. 1B
  3. 3 Jacob Young CF
  4. 4 CJ Abrams SS
  5. 5 Daylen Lile LF
  6. 6 Nasim Nuñez 2B
  7. 7 José Tena DH
  8. 8 Jorbit Vivas 3B
  9. 9 Keibert Ruiz C

Box score

  123456789 R
MIL 000010001 2
WSH 000020100 3

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B- / C entering this matchup.

AWAY · MIL
Pat Murphy
B- Lineup 0.6 R Bunts 1.4 R IBBs 3.1 R
HOME · WSH
Blake Butera
C Lineup 1.6 R Bunts 1.5 R IBBs 1.4 R

Recent form

AWAY · MIL
6-3 W2 +33 run diff
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HOME · WSH
6-4 W3 +6 run diff
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Season series: 2-4 with MIL listed first across 6 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Milwaukee Brewers
  • Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.65 vs actual lineup 4.63
  • Player execution −2.63 R/G Players fell 2.63 short of the lineup's 4.63 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −2.65 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Rengifo 0-for-4 batting 1st

HOME · Washington Nationals
  • Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.04 vs actual lineup 4.03
  • Player execution −1.03 R/G Players fell 1.03 short of the lineup's 4.03 projection (scored 3)
  • Game variance −1.04 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Wood 0-for-4 batting 1st

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.7 – 4.0 — actual was 2 – 3.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.