Starting Pitcher · Milwaukee Brewers
Logan Henderson
RHP · Throws Right · Age 24Starter
Model projection · strikeout prop
No graded line yet for tonight's start vs. Cardinals. The projection appears when the model has a line to price.
Drafted by the Milwaukee Brewers in 2021 (round 4). He made his MLB debut on April 20, 2025.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)
Tonight's Matchup
vs. Cardinals · pregame
Projected xwOBA vs. Cardinals current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .314
-
1
AB
Alec Burleson
LHB
.339
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 468 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (35% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (14% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (4% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
2
JW
Jordan Walker
RHB
.302
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (35% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (14% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (4% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
3
JW
JJ Wetherholt
LHB
.336
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (35% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (14% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (4% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
4
IH
Iván Herrera
RHB
.341
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (35% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (14% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (4% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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5
MW
Masyn Winn
RHB
.293
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 491 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (35% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (14% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (4% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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6
NC
Nathan Church
LHB
.296
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (35% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (14% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (4% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
7
JF
José Fermín
RHB
.298
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (35% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (14% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (4% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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8
PP
Pedro Pagés
RHB
.274
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (35% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (14% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (4% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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9
LN
Lars Nootbaar
LHB
.343
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lars Nootbaar
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 367 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (35% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (14% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (4% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Four-Seam Fastball
FF · lead pitch
47% of pitches · .286 xwOBA allowed · 91 BIP · where it goes, what it costs
Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) has allowed .286 xwOBA over 91 balls in play — his most-used pitch.
Arsenal
usage × whiff, ranked
4 pitch types · 790-pitch sample · 2026/2025 blend, weighted 4/3/1
Four-Seam Fastball FF
47% usage · 24% whiff · .286 xwOBA · 93.2 mph
Changeup CH
35% usage · 26% whiff · .245 xwOBA · 83.3 mph
Cutter FC
14% usage · 15% whiff · .317 xwOBA · 87.4 mph
Slider SL
4% usage · .423 xwOBA
Whiff% Trend
last 6 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
Four-Seam FastballChangeupCutter
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026/2025 blend, weighted 4/3/1
| Split | K% | xwOBA | Sample |
|---|
| vs. LHB | 31.1 |
.278 |
124 |
| vs. RHB | 38.2 |
.294 |
65 |
Live · client-hydrated
Market lines
current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day
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DFS picks
today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly
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