ARCHIVE April 30, 2026
April 30, 2026 · NL East

Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves

April 30, 2026Truist ParkCloudy 62°F · 9 mph, R To L
AWAY
Detroit Tigers
16-16
5
vs
HOME
Atlanta Braves
22-10
2

Starting pitchers

AWAY · DET
Framber Valdez
Framber Valdez
IP 6
HOME · ATL
Bryce Elder
Bryce Elder
IP 6

Lineups

AWAY · DET
  1. 1 Kevin McGonigle SS
  2. 2 Gleyber Torres 2B
  3. 3 Colt Keith DH
  4. 4 Riley Greene LF
  5. 5 Spencer Torkelson 1B
  6. 6 Kerry Carpenter RF
  7. 7 Matt Vierling CF
  8. 8 Hao-Yu Lee 3B
  9. 9 Jake Rogers C
HOME · ATL
  1. 1 Ronald Acuña RF
  2. 2 Drake Baldwin C
  3. 3 Ozzie Albies 2B
  4. 4 Matt Olson 1B
  5. 5 Austin Riley 3B
  6. 6 Mauricio Dubón LF
  7. 7 Kyle Farmer DH
  8. 8 Jorge Mateo SS
  9. 9 Eli White CF

Box score

  123456789 R
DET 000001022 5
ATL 011000000 2

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C- / C+ entering this matchup.

AWAY · DET
A.J. Hinch
C- Lineup 2.7 R Bunts 0.2 R IBBs 0.1 R
HOME · ATL
Walt Weiss
C+ Lineup 1.7 R Bunts 0.0 R IBBs 0.2 R

Recent form

AWAY · DET
3-7 L4 -5 run diff
LLLLWWLWLL
HOME · ATL
7-3 L1 +18 run diff
LWLWWWLWWW

Season series: 1-2 with DET listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Detroit Tigers
  • Manager lineup cost −0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.46 vs actual lineup 2.52
  • Player execution +2.48 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.52 projection by 2.48 (scored 5)
  • Game variance +2.54 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Greene 0-for-3 batting 4th

HOME · Atlanta Braves
  • Manager lineup cost +0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.61 vs actual lineup 3.55
  • Player execution −1.55 R/G Players fell 1.55 short of the lineup's 3.55 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −1.61 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Olson 0-for-4 batting 4th

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 2.5 – 3.6 — actual was 5 – 2.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.