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Starting Pitcher · Atlanta Braves

Bryce Elder

RHP · Throws Right · Age 27Starter
Model projection · strikeout prop
70.8%
70.8% against a 57.7% break-even. Over 3.5 Ks, tonight vs. PIT. Confidence high.
ERA
4.01
FIP
–
IP
98.2
W-L
5-6
WHIP
1.23
K%
20.0
BB%
7.2
GB%
–
K/9
7.6
HR/9
1.1
Drafted by the Atlanta Braves in 2020 (round 5). He made his MLB debut on April 12, 2022.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)

Tonight's Matchup

vs. Pirates · pregame

Projected xwOBA vs. Pirates current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .316

  1. 1 BL Brandon Lowe SH .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 349 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 498 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 430 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JM Jake Mangum SH .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 415 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 JT Jared Triolo RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 336 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 HD Henry Davis RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
▸ Full season matchup breakdown → · game preview

Sinker

SI · lead pitch

36% of pitches · .335 xwOBA allowed · 503 BIP · where it goes, what it costs

Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
1%1%1%1%0%2%4%4%3%1%9%12%12%10%5%3%3%5%3%2%3%5%5%4%3%
Rare 0% · Common 10% · Very common 20%+
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
.707.470.144.691–.351.222.335.206.000.308.366.414.167.419.337.222.406.165.246.086.276.332.626.699
Cold .200 · Avg .310 · Hot .500+
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
.004.003.002.008–.008.008.013.006.000.027.045.049.017.021.010.006.018.004.004.003.013.016.022.020
Low risk · Average · High-risk zone
Sinker (36% usage) has allowed .335 xwOBA over 503 balls in play — his most-used pitch.

Arsenal

usage × whiff, ranked

5 pitch types · 4,846-pitch sample · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1

Sinker SI
36% usage · 12% whiff · .335 xwOBA · 91.2 mph
Slider SL
32% usage · 30% whiff · .303 xwOBA · 83.1 mph
Four-Seam Fastball FF
17% usage · 15% whiff · .320 xwOBA · 92.5 mph
Changeup CH
10% usage · 21% whiff · .308 xwOBA · 85.6 mph
Cutter FC
6% usage · 16% whiff · .329 xwOBA · 88.5 mph
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
0102030405/165/225/276/26/76/146/216/27
SinkerSliderFour-Seam Fastball
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1
SplitK%xwOBASample
vs. LHB19.7 .314 720
vs. RHB19.6 .325 595
Live · client-hydrated

Market lines

current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day

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Live · client-hydrated

DFS picks

today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly

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