Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Jordan Beck LF
- 2 Brenton Doyle CF
- 3 Hunter Goodman C
- 4 Tyler Freeman DH
- 5 Willi Castro 2B
- 6 TJ Rumfield 1B
- 7 Kyle Karros 3B
- 8 Ezequiel Tovar SS
- 9 Troy Johnston RF
- 1 TJ Friedl CF
- 2 Matt McLain 2B
- 3 Elly De La Cruz SS
- 4 Sal Stewart 3B
- 5 Nathaniel Lowe DH
- 6 Tyler Stephenson C
- 7 JJ Bleday LF
- 8 Spencer Steer 1B
- 9 Will Benson RF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| CIN | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-2 with COL listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.72 vs actual lineup 4.68
- Player execution −0.68 R/G Players fell 0.68 short of the lineup's 4.68 projection (scored 4)
- Game variance −0.72 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Goodman 0-for-5 batting 3rd
- Manager lineup cost +0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.81 vs actual lineup 4.73
- Player execution +1.27 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.73 projection by 1.27 (scored 6)
- Game variance +1.19 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
McLain 0-for-4 batting 2nd
Optimal lineups projected 4.7 – 4.8 — actual was 4 – 6.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.