ARCHIVE April 30, 2026
April 30, 2026 · NL Cent

Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds

April 30, 2026Great American Ball ParkPartly Cloudy 54°F · 8 mph, Out To RF
AWAY
Colorado Rockies
14-18
4
vs
HOME
Cincinnati Reds
20-11
6

Starting pitchers

AWAY · COL
Michael Lorenzen
Michael Lorenzen
IP 5.1
HOME · CIN
Andrew Abbott
Andrew Abbott
IP 6

Lineups

AWAY · COL
  1. 1 Jordan Beck LF
  2. 2 Brenton Doyle CF
  3. 3 Hunter Goodman C
  4. 4 Tyler Freeman DH
  5. 5 Willi Castro 2B
  6. 6 TJ Rumfield 1B
  7. 7 Kyle Karros 3B
  8. 8 Ezequiel Tovar SS
  9. 9 Troy Johnston RF
HOME · CIN
  1. 1 TJ Friedl CF
  2. 2 Matt McLain 2B
  3. 3 Elly De La Cruz SS
  4. 4 Sal Stewart 3B
  5. 5 Nathaniel Lowe DH
  6. 6 Tyler Stephenson C
  7. 7 JJ Bleday LF
  8. 8 Spencer Steer 1B
  9. 9 Will Benson RF

Box score

  123456789 R
COL 200000002 4
CIN 010021020 6

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C / B- entering this matchup.

AWAY · COL
Warren Schaeffer
C Lineup 1.5 R Bunts 0.9 R IBBs 1.9 R
HOME · CIN
Terry Francona
B- Lineup 0.9 R Bunts 0.8 R IBBs 0.8 R

Recent form

AWAY · COL
3-6 W2 -7 run diff
WWL?LLLLLW
HOME · CIN
1-9 L8 -46 run diff
LLLLLLLLWL

Season series: 1-2 with COL listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Colorado Rockies
  • Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.72 vs actual lineup 4.68
  • Player execution −0.68 R/G Players fell 0.68 short of the lineup's 4.68 projection (scored 4)
  • Game variance −0.72 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Goodman 0-for-5 batting 3rd

HOME · Cincinnati Reds
  • Manager lineup cost +0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.81 vs actual lineup 4.73
  • Player execution +1.27 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.73 projection by 1.27 (scored 6)
  • Game variance +1.19 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

McLain 0-for-4 batting 2nd

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.7 – 4.8 — actual was 4 – 6.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.