ARCHIVE April 29, 2026
April 29, 2026 · NL Cent

Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds

April 29, 2026Great American Ball ParkPartly Cloudy 63°F · 11 mph, Out To CF
AWAY
Colorado Rockies
14-17
13
vs
HOME
Cincinnati Reds
19-11
2

Starting pitchers

AWAY · COL
Tomoyuki Sugano
Tomoyuki Sugano
IP 5.1
HOME · CIN
Brandon Williamson
Brandon Williamson
IP 3

Lineups

AWAY · COL
  1. 1 Jordan Beck LF
  2. 2 Brenton Doyle CF
  3. 3 TJ Rumfield 1B
  4. 4 Hunter Goodman DH
  5. 5 Willi Castro 2B
  6. 6 Brett Sullivan C
  7. 7 Kyle Karros 3B
  8. 8 Ezequiel Tovar SS
  9. 9 Mickey Moniak RF
HOME · CIN
  1. 1 TJ Friedl CF
  2. 2 Matt McLain 2B
  3. 3 Elly De La Cruz SS
  4. 4 Sal Stewart 1B
  5. 5 Nathaniel Lowe DH
  6. 6 Spencer Steer RF
  7. 7 JJ Bleday LF
  8. 8 Jose Trevino C
  9. 9 Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B

Box score

  123456789 R
COL 301010305 13
CIN 000000002 2

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C / B- entering this matchup.

AWAY · COL
Warren Schaeffer
C Lineup 1.5 R Bunts 0.9 R IBBs 1.9 R
HOME · CIN
Terry Francona
B- Lineup 0.9 R Bunts 0.8 R IBBs 0.8 R

Recent form

AWAY · COL
3-6 W2 -7 run diff
WWL?LLLLLW
HOME · CIN
1-9 L8 -46 run diff
LLLLLLLLWL

Season series: 1-2 with COL listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Colorado Rockies
  • Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.70 vs actual lineup 4.68
  • Player execution +8.32 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.68 projection by 8.32 (scored 13)
  • Game variance +8.30 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Beck 0-for-6 batting 1st

HOME · Cincinnati Reds
  • Manager lineup cost −0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.13 vs actual lineup 3.18
  • Player execution −1.18 R/G Players fell 1.18 short of the lineup's 3.18 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −1.13 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Cruz 0-for-3 batting 3rd

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.7 – 3.1 — actual was 13 – 2.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.