RunsLeft › Pitchers › Tomoyuki Sugano
Starting Pitcher · Colorado Rockies

Tomoyuki Sugano

RHP · Throws Right · Age 36Starter
Model projection · strikeout prop
57.0%
57.0% against a 57.7% break-even. Over 2.5 Ks, tonight vs. CLE. Confidence medium.
ERA
4.70
FIP
–
IP
118.2
W-L
12-6
WHIP
1.26
K%
13.9
BB%
5.4
GB%
–
K/9
5.2
HR/9
2.0
He was signed by the Colorado Rockies in free agency in February 2026. He made his MLB debut on March 30, 2025.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)

Tonight's Matchup

vs. Guardians · pregame

Projected xwOBA vs. Guardians current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .311

  1. 1 JA Jo Adell RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jo Adell
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 476 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BR Brayan Rocchio SH .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brayan Rocchio
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 SK Steven Kwan LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Steven Kwan
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 625 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CD Chase DeLauter LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chase DeLauter
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JR José Ramírez SH .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Ramírez
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 464 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TB Travis Bazzana LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Travis Bazzana
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 AM Angel Martínez SH .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Angel Martínez
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NL Nathaniel Lowe LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathaniel Lowe
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 550 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 PB Patrick Bailey SH .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Patrick Bailey
    • Splitter (22% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 392 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
▸ Full season matchup breakdown → · game preview

Splitter

FS · lead pitch

22% of pitches · .299 xwOBA allowed · 279 BIP · where it goes, what it costs

Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
0%0%0%0%0%3%1%1%0%0%11%13%9%3%0%3%7%6%3%0%3%12%14%8%2%
Rare 0% · Common 10% · Very common 20%+
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
–––––.115.423.062––.274.312.520.416–.081.230.445.105.000.139.236.231.161–
Cold .200 · Avg .310 · Hot .500+
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
–––––.004.005.000––.030.041.046.011–.002.015.027.003.000.005.029.032.012–
Low risk · Average · High-risk zone
Splitter (22% usage) has allowed .299 xwOBA over 279 balls in play — his most-used pitch.

Arsenal

usage × whiff, ranked

7 pitch types · 4,500-pitch sample · 2026/2025 blend, weighted 4/3/1

Splitter FS
22% usage · 28% whiff · .299 xwOBA · 86.8 mph
Four-Seam Fastball FF
20% usage · 13% whiff · .414 xwOBA · 92.4 mph
Sinker SI
17% usage · 5% whiff · .433 xwOBA · 92.4 mph
Sweeper ST
14% usage · 20% whiff · .309 xwOBA · 83.5 mph
Cutter FC
12% usage · 14% whiff · .450 xwOBA · 88.9 mph
Curveball CU
8% usage · 17% whiff · .439 xwOBA · 79.8 mph
Slider SL
6% usage · 19% whiff · .286 xwOBA · 85.1 mph
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
0102030405060706/146/206/267/187/318/58/118/17
SplitterFour-Seam FastballSinker
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026/2025 blend, weighted 4/3/1
SplitK%xwOBASample
vs. LHB14.2 .397 608
vs. RHB15.1 .350 527
Live · client-hydrated

Market lines

current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day

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Live · client-hydrated

DFS picks

today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly

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