ARCHIVE April 29, 2026
April 29, 2026 · AL Cent

Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians

April 29, 2026Progressive FieldOvercast 49°F · 11 mph, In From CF
AWAY
Tampa Bay Rays
18-12
1
vs
HOME
Cleveland Guardians
16-16
3

Starting pitchers

AWAY · TB
Drew Rasmussen
Drew Rasmussen
IP 5
HOME · CLE
Gavin Williams
Gavin Williams
IP 7.2

Lineups

AWAY · TB
  1. 1 Chandler Simpson LF
  2. 2 Junior Caminero 3B
  3. 3 Jonathan Aranda 1B
  4. 4 Yandy Díaz DH
  5. 5 Jake Fraley RF
  6. 6 Cedric Mullins CF
  7. 7 Richie Palacios 2B
  8. 8 Hunter Feduccia C
  9. 9 Taylor Walls SS
HOME · CLE
  1. 1 Steven Kwan CF
  2. 2 Chase DeLauter RF
  3. 3 José Ramírez DH
  4. 4 Kyle Manzardo 1B
  5. 5 Daniel Schneemann 3B
  6. 6 Angel Martínez LF
  7. 7 Travis Bazzana 2B
  8. 8 Bo Naylor C
  9. 9 Brayan Rocchio SS

Box score

  123456789 R
TB 000000100 1
CLE 001020000 3

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B- / C+ entering this matchup.

AWAY · TB
Kevin Cash
B- Lineup 0.9 R Bunts 2.4 R IBBs 2.1 R
HOME · CLE
Stephen Vogt
C+ Lineup 1.5 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 0.4 R

Recent form

AWAY · TB
8-2 L1 +17 run diff
LWWWWWWWLW
HOME · CLE
6-4 W3 +7 run diff
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Season series: 2-1 with TB listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Tampa Bay Rays
  • Manager lineup cost +0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.46 vs actual lineup 3.44
  • Player execution −2.44 R/G Players fell 2.44 short of the lineup's 3.44 projection (scored 1)
  • Game variance −2.46 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Aranda 0-for-4 batting 3rd

HOME · Cleveland Guardians
  • Manager lineup cost +0.00 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.13 vs actual lineup 3.14
  • Player execution −0.14 R/G Players fell 0.14 short of the lineup's 3.14 projection (scored 3)
  • Game variance −0.13 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Manzardo 0-for-3 batting 4th

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.5 – 3.1 — actual was 1 – 3.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.