RunsLeft › Pitchers › Drew Rasmussen
Starting Pitcher · Tampa Bay Rays

Drew Rasmussen

RHP · Throws Right · Age 30Starter
Model projection · strikeout prop
47.2%
47.2% against a 57.7% break-even. Over 5.5 Ks, tonight vs. NYY. Confidence medium.
ERA
2.78
FIP
–
IP
97.0
W-L
7-4
WHIP
0.90
K%
25.4
BB%
4.5
GB%
–
K/9
8.9
HR/9
1.0
Drafted by the Milwaukee Brewers in 2018 (round 6), he was acquired by the Tampa Bay Rays via trade from the Milwaukee Brewers in May 2021. He made his MLB debut on August 19, 2020.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)

Tonight's Matchup

vs. Yankees · pregame

Projected xwOBA vs. Yankees current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .323

  1. 1 CB Cody Bellinger LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cody Bellinger
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 529 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BR Ben Rice LHB .366
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Rice
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .405 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JC Jazz Chisholm Jr. LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jazz Chisholm Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 467 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JC José Caballero RHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Caballero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 325 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 TG Trent Grisham LHB .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trent Grisham
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 382 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 PG Paul Goldschmidt RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Paul Goldschmidt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 RM Ryan McMahon LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan McMahon
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 467 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AW Austin Wells LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Wells
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AR Amed Rosario RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Amed Rosario
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
▸ Full season matchup breakdown → · game preview

Four-Seam Fastball

FF · lead pitch

32% of pitches · .298 xwOBA allowed · 341 BIP · where it goes, what it costs

Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
2%7%10%6%1%2%11%12%7%2%3%8%12%9%3%0%1%1%2%1%0%0%1%1%0%
Rare 0% · Common 10% · Very common 20%+
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
.697.159.248.141.275.570.290.248.226.562.698.388.313.283.482––.003.109––.691.696–.691
Cold .200 · Avg .310 · Hot .500+
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
.017.011.024.008.002.013.030.029.016.010.019.030.038.026.014––.000.002––.001.007–.003
Low risk · Average · High-risk zone
Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) has allowed .298 xwOBA over 341 balls in play — his most-used pitch.

Arsenal

usage × whiff, ranked

6 pitch types · 4,355-pitch sample · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1

Four-Seam Fastball FF
32% usage · 21% whiff · .298 xwOBA · 95.9 mph
Cutter FC
31% usage · 25% whiff · .282 xwOBA · 90.1 mph
Sinker SI
23% usage · 11% whiff · .276 xwOBA · 95.4 mph
Changeup CH
6% usage · 39% whiff · .169 xwOBA · 90.1 mph
Curveball CU
4% usage · 17% whiff · .350 xwOBA · 80.5 mph
Sweeper ST
4% usage · 20% whiff · .348 xwOBA · 84.5 mph
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
01020304050605/245/306/56/106/166/226/287/4
Four-Seam FastballCutterSinker
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1
SplitK%xwOBASample
vs. LHB24.3 .287 611
vs. RHB21.6 .279 466
Live · client-hydrated

Market lines

current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day

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Live · client-hydrated

DFS picks

today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly

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