ARCHIVE April 28, 2026
April 28, 2026 · NL Cent

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers

April 28, 2026American Family FieldRoof Closed 67°F · 0 mph, None
AWAY
Arizona Diamondbacks
15-13
2
vs
HOME
Milwaukee Brewers
15-13
13

Starting pitchers

AWAY · AZ
Merrill Kelly
Merrill Kelly
IP 5
HOME · MIL
Chad Patrick
Chad Patrick
IP 5

Lineups

AWAY · AZ
  1. 1 Ildemaro Vargas 1B
  2. 2 Ketel Marte 2B
  3. 3 Corbin Carroll RF
  4. 4 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF
  5. 5 Adrian Del Castillo DH
  6. 6 Jose Fernandez SS
  7. 7 Nolan Arenado 3B
  8. 8 Alek Thomas CF
  9. 9 James McCann C
HOME · MIL
  1. 1 Garrett Mitchell CF
  2. 2 William Contreras C
  3. 3 Brice Turang 2B
  4. 4 Tyler Black DH
  5. 5 Jake Bauers 1B
  6. 6 Brandon Lockridge LF
  7. 7 Sal Frelick RF
  8. 8 David Hamilton 3B
  9. 9 Joey Ortiz SS

Box score

  123456789 R
AZ 000020000 2
MIL 010228000 13

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C- / B- entering this matchup.

AWAY · AZ
Torey Lovullo
C- Lineup 2.0 R Bunts 2.1 R IBBs 0.6 R
HOME · MIL
Pat Murphy
B- Lineup 0.6 R Bunts 1.4 R IBBs 3.1 R

Recent form

AWAY · AZ
3-7 L2 -15 run diff
LLWLLLLWLW
HOME · MIL
6-3 W2 +33 run diff
WW?LLWWWLW

Season series: 1-2 with AZ listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Manager lineup cost +0.14 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.47 vs actual lineup 3.33
  • Player execution −1.33 R/G Players fell 1.33 short of the lineup's 3.33 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −1.47 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Jr. 0-for-4 batting 4th

HOME · Milwaukee Brewers
  • Manager lineup cost +0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.70 vs actual lineup 4.64
  • Player execution +8.36 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.64 projection by 8.36 (scored 13)
  • Game variance +8.30 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Hamilton 2-for-5 from the 8-hole

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.5 – 4.7 — actual was 2 – 13.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.