RunsLeft › Pitchers › Merrill Kelly
Starting Pitcher · Arizona Diamondbacks

Merrill Kelly

RHP · Throws Right · Age 37Starter
Model projection · strikeout prop
46.3%
46.3% against a 57.7% break-even. Over 3.5 Ks, tonight vs. SD. Confidence medium.
ERA
5.71
FIP
–
IP
86.2
W-L
6-8
WHIP
1.56
K%
13.7
BB%
9.0
GB%
–
K/9
5.5
HR/9
2.0
Drafted by the Tampa Bay Rays in 2010 (round 8), he was signed by the Arizona Diamondbacks in free agency in December 2025. He made his MLB debut on April 1, 2019.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)

Tonight's Matchup

vs. Padres · pregame

Projected xwOBA vs. Padres current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .313

  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 401 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 445 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 461 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 349 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 303 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 430 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 TF Ty France RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 LR Luis Rengifo SH .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 323 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
▸ Full season matchup breakdown → · game preview

Changeup

CH · lead pitch

26% of pitches · .303 xwOBA allowed · 417 BIP · where it goes, what it costs

Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%15%11%6%1%0%6%9%5%1%0%6%13%14%8%1%
Rare 0% · Common 10% · Very common 20%+
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
–––––.302.258.865––.412.368.423.741–.199.261.372.341–.094.162.202.185.346
Cold .200 · Avg .310 · Hot .500+
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
–––––.003.001.002––.061.040.027.008–.012.023.019.004–.006.021.029.015.005
Low risk · Average · High-risk zone
Changeup (26% usage) has allowed .303 xwOBA over 417 balls in play — his most-used pitch.

Arsenal

usage × whiff, ranked

6 pitch types · 5,455-pitch sample · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1

Changeup CH
26% usage · 30% whiff · .303 xwOBA · 88.4 mph
Four-Seam Fastball FF
25% usage · 16% whiff · .434 xwOBA · 92.0 mph
Cutter FC
19% usage · 13% whiff · .368 xwOBA · 91.1 mph
Sinker SI
12% usage · 6% whiff · .397 xwOBA · 92.2 mph
Curveball CU
10% usage · 18% whiff · .321 xwOBA · 82.4 mph
Slider SL
9% usage · 32% whiff · .282 xwOBA · 86.3 mph
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
010203040506070805/255/316/56/116/166/226/287/4
ChangeupFour-Seam FastballCutter
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1
SplitK%xwOBASample
vs. LHB16 .375 778
vs. RHB21.8 .329 646
Live · client-hydrated

Market lines

current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day

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Live · client-hydrated

DFS picks

today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly

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