Detroit Tigers vs Cincinnati Reds
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Kevin McGonigle SS
- 2 Matt Vierling CF
- 3 Colt Keith 3B
- 4 Riley Greene LF
- 5 Dillon Dingler C
- 6 Kerry Carpenter DH
- 7 Spencer Torkelson 1B
- 8 Wenceel Pérez RF
- 9 Javier Báez 2B
- 1 TJ Friedl CF
- 2 Matt McLain 2B
- 3 Elly De La Cruz SS
- 4 Sal Stewart 1B
- 5 Nathaniel Lowe DH
- 6 Spencer Steer LF
- 7 Tyler Stephenson C
- 8 Will Benson RF
- 9 Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| CIN | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-2 with DET listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.51 vs actual lineup 4.44
- Player execution −2.44 R/G Players fell 2.44 short of the lineup's 4.44 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −2.51 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Torkelson HR from the 7-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.75 vs actual lineup 4.70
- Player execution +4.30 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.70 projection by 4.30 (scored 9)
- Game variance +4.25 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
McLain 0-for-4 batting 2nd
Optimal lineups projected 4.5 – 4.8 — actual was 2 – 9.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.