Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 TJ Friedl CF
- 2 Matt McLain 2B
- 3 Elly De La Cruz SS
- 4 Sal Stewart 1B
- 5 Eugenio Suárez 3B
- 6 Nathaniel Lowe DH
- 7 Spencer Steer LF
- 8 Will Benson RF
- 9 P.J. Higgins C
- 1 Yandy Díaz DH
- 2 Jonathan Aranda 1B
- 3 Junior Caminero 3B
- 4 Ryan Vilade RF
- 5 Jonny DeLuca CF
- 6 Ben Williamson 2B
- 7 Chandler Simpson LF
- 8 Nick Fortes C
- 9 Taylor Walls SS
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| TB | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with CIN listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.09 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.40 vs actual lineup 2.49
- Player execution −1.49 R/G Players fell 1.49 short of the lineup's 2.49 projection (scored 1)
- Game variance −1.40 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Cruz 0-for-4 batting 3rd
- Manager lineup cost −0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.75 vs actual lineup 4.78
- Player execution +1.22 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.78 projection by 1.22 (scored 6)
- Game variance +1.25 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lineup spots out of order vs season production
Optimal lineups projected 2.4 – 4.8 — actual was 1 – 6.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.