San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Ramón Laureano LF
- 2 Fernando Tatis RF
- 3 Jackson Merrill CF
- 4 Manny Machado 3B
- 5 Xander Bogaerts SS
- 6 Gavin Sheets DH
- 7 Nick Castellanos 1B
- 8 Luis Campusano C
- 9 Jake Cronenworth 2B
- 1 Edouard Julien 2B
- 2 Mickey Moniak LF
- 3 Hunter Goodman C
- 4 Tyler Freeman DH
- 5 TJ Rumfield 1B
- 6 Troy Johnston RF
- 7 Kyle Karros 3B
- 8 Willi Castro SS
- 9 Jake McCarthy CF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| COL | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B / C entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 6-1 with SD listed first across 7 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.08 vs actual lineup 3.11
- Player execution −0.11 R/G Players fell 0.11 short of the lineup's 3.11 projection (scored 3)
- Game variance −0.08 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Campusano HR from the 8-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.74 vs actual lineup 4.72
- Player execution +3.28 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.72 projection by 3.28 (scored 8)
- Game variance +3.26 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Castro 2-for-3 from the 8-hole
Optimal lineups projected 3.1 – 4.7 — actual was 3 – 8.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.