Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Trea Turner SS
- 2 Kyle Schwarber DH
- 3 Bryce Harper 1B
- 4 Felix Reyes LF
- 5 Adolis García RF
- 6 J.T. Realmuto C
- 7 Alec Bohm 3B
- 8 Brandon Marsh CF
- 9 Edmundo Sosa 2B
- 1 Nico Hoerner 2B
- 2 Alex Bregman DH
- 3 Ian Happ LF
- 4 Seiya Suzuki RF
- 5 Carson Kelly C
- 6 Michael Busch 1B
- 7 Dansby Swanson SS
- 8 Matt Shaw 3B
- 9 Pete Crow-Armstrong CF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / C entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-6 with PHI listed first across 7 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.14 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.66 vs actual lineup 3.52
- Player execution +0.48 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.52 projection by 0.48 (scored 4)
- Game variance +0.34 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Turner 0-for-4 batting 1st
- Manager lineup cost +0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.83 vs actual lineup 4.80
- Player execution +2.20 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.80 projection by 2.20 (scored 7)
- Game variance +2.17 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Crow-Armstrong 2-for-5 from the 9-hole
Optimal lineups projected 3.7 – 4.8 — actual was 4 – 7.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.