RunsLeft › Pitchers › Jesús Luzardo
Starting Pitcher · Philadelphia Phillies

Jesús Luzardo

LHP · Throws Left · Age 28Starter
Model projection · strikeout prop
51.2%
51.2% against a 57.7% break-even. Over 7.5 Ks, tonight vs. CIN. Confidence medium.
ERA
3.75
FIP
–
IP
103.1
W-L
7-4
WHIP
1.27
K%
28.6
BB%
7.6
GB%
–
K/9
10.9
HR/9
0.8
Drafted by the Washington Nationals in 2016 (round 3), he was acquired by the Philadelphia Phillies via trade from the Miami Marlins in December 2024. He made his MLB debut on September 11, 2019.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)

Tonight's Matchup

vs. Reds · pregame

Projected xwOBA vs. Reds current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .305

  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 SS Spencer Steer RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Steer
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 553 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MM Matt McLain RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 482 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 JB JJ Bleday LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 373 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NL Nathaniel Lowe LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathaniel Lowe
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 507 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 TF TJ Friedl LHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Friedl
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
▸ Full season matchup breakdown → · game preview

Sweeper

ST · lead pitch

32% of pitches · .201 xwOBA allowed · 352 BIP · where it goes, what it costs

Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
0%0%1%1%2%0%1%3%3%3%5%10%12%11%4%4%5%5%3%0%12%10%6%1%0%
Rare 0% · Common 10% · Very common 20%+
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
––––.696–.250.066.352.691.179.227.262.220.213.102.210.303.189–.066.095.312.000–
Cold .200 · Avg .310 · Hot .500+
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
––––.013–.002.002.011.023.009.022.032.023.008.004.011.014.005–.008.009.018.000–
Low risk · Average · High-risk zone
Sweeper (32% usage) has allowed .201 xwOBA over 352 balls in play — his most-used pitch.

Arsenal

usage × whiff, ranked

5 pitch types · 6,004-pitch sample · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1

Sweeper ST
32% usage · 45% whiff · .201 xwOBA · 86.4 mph
Four-Seam Fastball FF
30% usage · 15% whiff · .337 xwOBA · 97.0 mph
Changeup CH
19% usage · 36% whiff · .288 xwOBA · 86.2 mph
Sinker SI
14% usage · 12% whiff · .356 xwOBA · 95.9 mph
Slider SL
5% usage · 36% whiff · .203 xwOBA
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
010203040506070805/255/306/56/106/166/236/287/4
SweeperFour-Seam FastballChangeup
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1
SplitK%xwOBASample
vs. LHB34.5 .221 330
vs. RHB25.9 .302 1,134
Live · client-hydrated

Market lines

current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day

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DFS picks

today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly

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